NBA · Finalupdated 18:16 UTC

Portland Trail Blazers vs Golden State Warriors

at Golden State Warriors

GSW expected to win by about 12 · both teams together expected to score about 236.5 points · odds to win: POR 5.93, GSW 1.16

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Tue 02:05 UTC

POR 120 – GSW 130

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: POR = Portland Trail Blazers, GSW = Golden State Warriors.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

11 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 11 players has performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Portland Trail Blazersplaying GSW

Deni Avdija · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 34 actual

Donovan Clingan · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 15 actual

Scoot Henderson · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 12 actual

Shaedon Sharpe · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 9 actual

Toumani Camara · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 7 actual

Golden State Warriorsplaying POR

Draymond Green · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 4 actual

Gary Payton II · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 26 actual

Gui Santos · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 5 actual

Jimmy Butler III · minutes unknown

points 20.5 → 15 actual

Moses Moody · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 20 actual

Stephen Curry · minutes unknown

assists 6.5 → 3 actual

What could go wrong

updated 18:16 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

POR also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 239 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Gary Payton II · points 8.5 → 26 · 17.5 above the line · played 28.4 min · no final price

Deni Avdija · points 15.5 → 34 · 18.5 above the line · played 40.6 min · no final price

Donovan Clingan · points 7.5 → 15 · 7.5 above the line · played 31.9 min · no final price

Draymond Green · points 10.5 → 4 · 6.5 below the line · played 28.3 min · no final price

Moses Moody · points 12.5 → 20 · 7.5 above the line · played 29.8 min · no final price

Stephen Curry · assists 6.5 → 3 · 3.5 below the line · played 34 min · no final price

Shaedon Sharpe · points 18.5 → 9 · 9.5 below the line · played 29.5 min · no final price

Toumani Camara · points 12.5 → 7 · 5.5 below the line · played 36.8 min · no final price

Jimmy Butler III · points 20.5 → 15 · 5.5 below the line · played 35 min · no final price

Gui Santos · rebounds 4.5 → 5 · 0.5 above the line · played 14.5 min · no final price

Scoot Henderson · points 12.5 → 12 · 0.5 below the line · played 29.5 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

GSW vs POR · last 24 games · GSW leads · GSW record 16–8 · average score 120.7–111.8 · GSW has won by 8.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

No finished games between these teams on file.

What each defense gives up per game

POR gives up115.6 points · 43.0 rebounds · 26.3 assists · 36.1% from three-point range

GSW gives up115.2 points · 44.2 rebounds · 27.1 assists · 36.0% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

POR gives up 115.6 points a game · 16th of 30 · league average 115.3about league average

GSW gives up 115.2 points a game · 15th of 30 · league average 115.3about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had GSW expected to win by 12, expected total 236.5 (Tue 02:05 UTC) and had not changed it by Tue 02:05 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 52

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 64 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 66 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 78 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 78 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 83 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 107 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 194 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 196 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 201 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 212 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 5 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 249 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 189 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 255 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 257 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 331 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 129 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 161 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 163 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 165 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 167 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 230 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 237 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 238 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 260 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 263 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 272 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 276 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 279 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 282 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 293 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 309 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 310 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 315 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 346 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 353 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 369 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 373 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 647 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 770 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 615 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 671 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 710 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 766 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 818 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 839 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 851 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 870 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 872 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 901 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 926 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.