NBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 1 · first game of the seriesupdated 09:05 UTC

Detroit Pistons vs New York Knicks

at New York Knicks

NYK expected to win by about 7 · both teams together expected to score about 221.5 points · odds to win: DET 3.38, NYK 1.36

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 21:55 UTC

DET 112 – NYK 123

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: DET = Detroit Pistons, NYK = New York Knicks.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Detroit Pistonsplaying NYK

Ausar Thompson · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 10 actual

Cade Cunningham · minutes unknown

points 27.5 → 21 actual

Jalen Duren · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 7 actual

Tobias Harris · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 4 actual

New York Knicksplaying DET

Jalen Brunson · minutes unknown

points 27.5 → 34 actual

Josh Hart · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 27.5 → 26 actual

Karl-Anthony Towns · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 38.5 → 39 actual

Landry Shamet · minutes unknown

points 2.5 → 2 actual

Mikal Bridges · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 23.5 → 12 actual

Miles McBride · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Mitchell Robinson · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 6 actual

OG Anunoby · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 23 actual

What could go wrong

updated 09:05 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

DET had 132 days off before this game · NYK had 105 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 230 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 5 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

12 other players with a posted line

Tobias Harris · 3-pointers 1.5 → 4 · 2.5 above the line · played 39.8 min · no final price

Miles McBride · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 15.2 min · no final price

Mikal Bridges · points + rebounds + assists 23.5 → 12 · 11.5 below the line · played 28.7 min · no final price

OG Anunoby · points 16.5 → 23 · 6.5 above the line · played 44.1 min · no final price

Jalen Duren · points 11.5 → 7 · 4.5 below the line · played 24.7 min · no final price

Mitchell Robinson · rebounds 4.5 → 6 · 1.5 above the line · played 17.9 min · no final price

Cade Cunningham · points 27.5 → 21 · 6.5 below the line · played 39.1 min · no final price

Jalen Brunson · points 27.5 → 34 · 6.5 above the line · played 40.5 min · no final price

Landry Shamet · points 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 10.2 min · no final price

Josh Hart · points + rebounds + assists 27.5 → 26 · 1.5 below the line · played 29.6 min · no final price

Ausar Thompson · points 10.5 → 10 · 0.5 below the line · played 22.8 min · no final price

Karl-Anthony Towns · points + rebounds + assists 38.5 → 39 · 0.5 above the line · played 39.2 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

NYK vs DET · last 27 games · NYK leads · NYK record 18–9 · average score 111.4–107.1 · NYK has won by 4.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

No finished games between these teams on file.

What each defense gives up per game

DET gives up108.7 points · 40.5 rebounds · 23.2 assists · 34.3% from three-point range

NYK gives up108.3 points · 40.0 rebounds · 24.3 assists · 35.4% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

DET gives up 108.7 points a game · 4th of 30 · league average 115.3−6.7 vs average

NYK gives up 108.3 points a game · 3rd of 30 · league average 115.3−7.1 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had NYK expected to win by 7, expected total 221.5 (Sat 21:55 UTC) and had not changed it by Sat 21:55 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 69

sds games/date (2025-04-15)ok 200 · 9 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-16)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-09)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-13)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-14)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-18)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-10)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-11)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-17)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-08)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-06)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-12)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-07)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-05)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 19 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 21 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 22 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 23 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 93 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 95 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 95 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 98 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 5 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 96 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 152 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 502 · 185 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 39 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 111 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 113 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 117 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 121 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 123 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 125 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 127 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 128 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 129 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 130 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 131 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 140 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 146 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 156 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 165 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 195 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 196 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 201 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 203 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 205 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 535 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 469 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 546 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 545 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 547 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 547 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 671 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 806 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 806 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 805 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 806 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.