NBA · Apr 20 gameAll props Full sheet

Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers

FinalMIA 100 – CLE 121Page updated 22:41 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 5 availability alerts

Out Jr. · two-way · CLE

May not play Tyson · right ankle sprain (ankle) · CLE

Out Diop · on assignment · CLE

Out Tomlin · low back stress reaction (back) · CLE

Out Merrill · right elbow injury management (elbow) · CLE

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Jr. · two-way · CLE

May not play Tyson · right ankle sprain (ankle) · CLE

Out Diop · on assignment · CLE

Out Tomlin · low back stress reaction (back) · CLE

Out Merrill · right elbow injury management (elbow) · CLE

Players and minutes6 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Miami Heat

Andrew Wiggins · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 26.5 → 22 actual

Bam Adebayo · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 24 actual

Davion Mitchell · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 18 actual

Cleveland Cavaliers

Donovan Mitchell · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 35.5 → 39 actual

Evan Mobley · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 9 actual

Jarrett Allen · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 12 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

Game odds unavailable.

What could go wrong

updated 22:41 UTC

Who is out

Out Jr. · two-way · CLE

May not play Tyson · right ankle sprain (ankle) · CLE

Out Diop · on assignment · CLE

Out Tomlin · low back stress reaction (back) · CLE

Out Merrill · right elbow injury management (elbow) · CLE

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

MIA had 7 days off before this game · CLE had 7 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 222 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 3 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

6 other players with a posted line

Davion Mitchell · points 9.5 → 18 · 8.5 above the line · played 33.9 min · no final price

Evan Mobley · points 16.5 → 9 · 7.5 below the line · played 33.2 min · no final price

Bam Adebayo · points 17.5 → 24 · 6.5 above the line · played 39.1 min · no final price

Andrew Wiggins · points + rebounds + assists 26.5 → 22 · 4.5 below the line · played 38.1 min · no final price

Jarrett Allen · points 13.5 → 12 · 1.5 below the line · played 30.3 min · no final price

Donovan Mitchell · points + rebounds + assists 35.5 → 39 · 3.5 above the line · played 33.3 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

CLE vs MIA · last 28 games · CLE leads · CLE record 14–14 · average score 112.4–110.1 · CLE has won by 2.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

27 Mar · MIA 128 at CLE 149CLE won

25 Mar · MIA 120 at CLE 103CLE lost

What each defense gives up per game

MIA gives up120.0 points · 45.7 rebounds · 29.7 assists · 39.5% from three-point range

CLE gives up115.0 points · 46.4 rebounds · 26.2 assists · 35.5% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIA gives up 120.0 points a game · 26th of 30 · league average 113.3+6.7 vs average

CLE gives up 115.0 points a game · 19th of 30 · league average 113.3+1.7 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 51

sds games/date (2025-04-18)ok 200 · 167 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-17)ok 200 · 168 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-15)ok 200 · 169 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-16)ok 200 · 170 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-14)ok 200 · 171 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-12)ok 200 · 172 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 183 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-19)ok 200 · 206 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-13)ok 200 · 207 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-11)ok 200 · 208 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-09)ok 200 · 208 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-08)ok 200 · 209 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-10)ok 200 · 209 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-07)ok 200 · 209 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-06)ok 200 · 209 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 210 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 212 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 229 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 227 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 229 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 246 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 267 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 307 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 342 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 346 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 348 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 353 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 14 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 365 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 227 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 510 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 3358 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 109 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 110 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 145 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 152 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 192 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 203 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 211 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 211 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 210 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 214 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 228 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 242 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 254 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.