NBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 1 · first game of the seriesupdated 09:05 UTC

Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers

at Cleveland Cavaliers

CLE expected to win by about 12.5 · both teams together expected to score about 216 points · odds to win: MIA 6.31, CLE 1.14

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sun 23:05 UTC

MIA 100 – CLE 121

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: MIA = Miami Heat, CLE = Cleveland Cavaliers.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

9 players checked · 4 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 9 players has performed clearly differently and 4 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Miami Heatplaying CLE

Andrew Wiggins · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 26.5 → 22 actual

Bam Adebayo · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 24 actual

Davion Mitchell · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 18 actual

Kel'el Ware · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 2 actual

Tyler Herro · minutes unknown

points 23.5 → 21 actual

Cleveland Cavaliersplaying MIA

Donovan Mitchell · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 35.5 → 39 actual

Evan Mobley · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 9 actual

Jarrett Allen · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 12 actual

Max Strus · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 9 actual

What could go wrong

updated 09:05 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

MIA had 167 days off before this game · CLE had 124 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 222 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

9 other players with a posted line

Davion Mitchell · points 9.5 → 18 · 8.5 above the line · played 33.9 min · no final price

Kel'el Ware · points 7.5 → 2 · 5.5 below the line · played 19.6 min · no final price

Evan Mobley · points 16.5 → 9 · 7.5 below the line · played 33.2 min · no final price

Bam Adebayo · points 17.5 → 24 · 6.5 above the line · played 39.1 min · no final price

Andrew Wiggins · points + rebounds + assists 26.5 → 22 · 4.5 below the line · played 38.1 min · no final price

Jarrett Allen · points 13.5 → 12 · 1.5 below the line · played 30.3 min · no final price

Tyler Herro · points 23.5 → 21 · 2.5 below the line · played 37 min · no final price

Donovan Mitchell · points + rebounds + assists 35.5 → 39 · 3.5 above the line · played 33.3 min · no final price

Max Strus · points 8.5 → 9 · 0.5 above the line · played 21.4 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

CLE vs MIA · last 28 games · CLE leads · CLE record 14–14 · average score 112.4–110.1 · CLE has won by 2.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

27 Mar · MIA 128 at CLE 149CLE won

25 Mar · MIA 120 at CLE 103CLE lost

What each defense gives up per game

MIA gives up118.5 points · 46.4 rebounds · 27.5 assists · 35.8% from three-point range

CLE gives up114.6 points · 42.9 rebounds · 26.7 assists · 37.3% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIA gives up 118.5 points a game · 22nd of 30 · league average 115.3+3.2 vs average

CLE gives up 114.6 points a game · 14th of 30 · league average 115.3about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had CLE expected to win by 12.5, expected total 216 (Sun 23:05 UTC) and had not changed it by Sun 23:05 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 60

sds games/date (2025-04-19)ok 200 · 28 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-17)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-18)ok 200 · 30 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-13)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 33 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-16)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-11)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-15)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-14)ok 200 · 37 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-07)ok 200 · 37 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-08)ok 200 · 38 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 38 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-12)ok 200 · 39 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-06)ok 200 · 40 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 42 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-09)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-10)ok 200 · 44 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 44 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 45 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 60 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 67 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 69 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 146 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 148 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 150 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 158 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 173 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 19 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 23 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 24 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 25 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 27 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 31 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 34 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 37 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 42 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 42 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 53 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 502 · 297 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 156 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 166 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 175 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 182 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 253 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 283 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 335 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 482 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 490 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 500 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 506 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 510 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 533 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 741 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 709 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 728 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.