NBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 3 · BOS leads 2–0updated 09:06 UTC

Boston Celtics vs Orlando Magic

at Orlando Magic

BOS expected to win by about 6 · both teams together expected to score about 200.5 points · odds to win: BOS 1.42, ORL 3.09

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 23:00 UTC

BOS 93 – ORL 95

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: BOS = Boston Celtics, ORL = Orlando Magic.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 10 players has performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Boston Celticsplaying ORL

Derrick White · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 5 actual

Jaylen Brown · minutes unknown

points 23.5 → 19 actual

Jayson Tatum · minutes unknown

points 23.5 → 36 actual

Payton Pritchard · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 0 actual

Sam Hauser · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Orlando Magicplaying BOS

Anthony Black · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 9 actual

Franz Wagner · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 34.5 → 47 actual

Jonathan Isaac · minutes unknown

points 3.5 → 2 actual

Paolo Banchero · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 1 actual

Wendell Carter Jr. · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 10 actual

What could go wrong

updated 09:06 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

BOS had 147 days off before this game · ORL had 146 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 306 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

10 other players with a posted line

Payton Pritchard · 3-pointers 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 25.5 min · no final price

Sam Hauser · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 13.5 min · no final price

Paolo Banchero · assists 4.5 → 1 · 3.5 below the line · played 41.6 min · no final price

Jayson Tatum · points 23.5 → 36 · 12.5 above the line · played 39.4 min · no final price

Jonathan Isaac · points 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 17.3 min · no final price

Franz Wagner · points + rebounds + assists 34.5 → 47 · 12.5 above the line · played 37.9 min · no final price

Anthony Black · points 7.5 → 9 · 1.5 above the line · played 13.3 min · no final price

Jaylen Brown · points 23.5 → 19 · 4.5 below the line · played 33.7 min · no final price

Derrick White · assists 4.5 → 5 · 0.5 above the line · played 39.6 min · no final price

Wendell Carter Jr. · points 9.5 → 10 · 0.5 above the line · played 30.6 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

ORL vs BOS · last 26 games · BOS leads · ORL record 8–18 · average score 103.1–110.8 · ORL has lost by 7.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

12 Apr · ORL 108 at BOS 113ORL lost

What each defense gives up per game

BOS gives up106.9 points · 41.2 rebounds · 24.5 assists · 35.8% from three-point range

ORL gives up113.8 points · 43.7 rebounds · 24.8 assists · 34.9% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

BOS gives up 106.9 points a game · 1st of 30 · league average 115.3−8.5 vs average

ORL gives up 113.8 points a game · 12th of 30 · league average 115.3−1.5 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had BOS expected to win by 6, expected total 200.5 (Fri 23:00 UTC) and had not changed it by Fri 23:00 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 63

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 68 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 76 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-22)ok 200 · 80 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-23)ok 200 · 80 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-19)ok 200 · 127 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-20)ok 200 · 129 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-21)ok 200 · 132 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-24)ok 200 · 132 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-17)ok 200 · 133 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-18)ok 200 · 133 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-12)ok 200 · 135 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 135 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-11)ok 200 · 137 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-13)ok 200 · 154 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 156 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-16)ok 200 · 159 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-15)ok 200 · 161 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 161 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-14)ok 200 · 163 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 164 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 165 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 166 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 176 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 221 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 221 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 223 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 40 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 7 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 6 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 290 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 66 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 338 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 186 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 502 · 389 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 154 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 171 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 202 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 209 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 222 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 249 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 252 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 258 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 279 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1041 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1079 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1266 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1571 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1315 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1320 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1344 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1350 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1360 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1361 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.