NBA · Final · Playoffs round 2, game 1 · first game of the seriesupdated 08:15 UTC

Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves

at Minnesota Timberwolves

MIN expected to win by about 6 · both teams together expected to score about 210 points · odds to win: GSW 2.99, MIN 1.44

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Wed 01:30 UTC

GSW 99 – MIN 88

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: GSW = Golden State Warriors, MIN = Minnesota Timberwolves.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games · 2 not checked

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 6 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Golden State Warriorsplaying MIN

Brandin Podziemski · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 20.5 → 14 actual

Draymond Green · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 18 actual

Gary Payton II · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 8 actual

Jimmy Butler III · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 34.5 → 39 actual

Moses Moody · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Quinten Post · minutes unknown

points 3.5 → 0 actual

Stephen Curry · minutes unknown

points 26.5 → 13 actual

Minnesota Timberwolvesplaying GSW

Anthony Edwards · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 40.5 → 39 actual

Donte DiVincenzo · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 7 actual

Jaden McDaniels · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 12 actual

Julius Randle · minutes unknown

points 20.5 → 18 actual

Mike Conley · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Naz Reid · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 19 actual

Rudy Gobert · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 9 actual

What could go wrong

updated 08:15 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

GSW had 167 days off before this game · MIN had 134 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 237 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

14 other players with a posted line

Draymond Green · points 8.5 → 18 · 9.5 above the line · played 34.6 min · no final price

Moses Moody · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 8.5 min · no final price

Quinten Post · points 3.5 → 0 · 3.5 below the line · played 6.3 min · no final price

Mike Conley · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 21.7 min · no final price

Naz Reid · points 9.5 → 19 · 9.5 above the line · played 33.7 min · no final price

Stephen Curry · points 26.5 → 13 · 13.5 below the line · played 12.9 min · no final price

Gary Payton II · points 5.5 → 8 · 2.5 above the line · played 25.9 min · no final price

Donte DiVincenzo · points 10.5 → 7 · 3.5 below the line · played 32.5 min · no final price

Brandin Podziemski · points + rebounds + assists 20.5 → 14 · 6.5 below the line · played 29 min · no final price

Rudy Gobert · points 10.5 → 9 · 1.5 below the line · played 26.2 min · no final price

Jimmy Butler III · points + rebounds + assists 34.5 → 39 · 4.5 above the line · played 41.3 min · no final price

Julius Randle · points 20.5 → 18 · 2.5 below the line · played 30.6 min · no final price

Jaden McDaniels · points 13.5 → 12 · 1.5 below the line · played 37.6 min · no final price

Anthony Edwards · points + rebounds + assists 40.5 → 39 · 1.5 below the line · played 41.7 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

MIN vs GSW · last 30 games · MIN leads · MIN record 18–12 · average score 111.3–109.8 · MIN has won by 1.5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

13 Mar · MIN 127 at GSW 117MIN won

What each defense gives up per game

GSW gives up115.2 points · 44.2 rebounds · 27.1 assists · 36.0% from three-point range

MIN gives up114.6 points · 43.8 rebounds · 25.9 assists · 35.3% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

GSW gives up 115.2 points a game · 15th of 30 · league average 115.3about league average

MIN gives up 114.6 points a game · 13th of 30 · league average 115.3about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 6, expected total 210 (Wed 01:30 UTC) and had not changed it by Wed 01:30 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 69

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 116 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-05)ok 200 · 117 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-04)ok 200 · 118 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-02)ok 200 · 119 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-28)ok 200 · 120 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-29)ok 200 · 121 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 121 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-30)ok 200 · 122 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-03)ok 200 · 124 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-23)ok 200 · 124 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-01)ok 200 · 126 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-27)ok 200 · 126 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-22)ok 200 · 126 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-25)ok 200 · 129 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-24)ok 200 · 130 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 132 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 133 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-26)ok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 135 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 136 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 137 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 235 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 254 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 277 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 283 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 44 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 297 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 48 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 270 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 407 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 502 · 405 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 409 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 121 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 254 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 263 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 279 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 282 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 293 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 296 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 302 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 343 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 350 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 361 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 373 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 383 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 386 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 395 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 411 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 427 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 443 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 452 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 462 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 467 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 492 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 535 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 627 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 656 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1162 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 864 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1066 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1115 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1135 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1142 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1212 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1436 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1474 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1475 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1479 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1493 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.