NBA · Final · Playoffs round 2, game 4 · NYK leads 2–1updated 08:16 UTC

Boston Celtics vs New York Knicks

at New York Knicks

BOS expected to win by about 5.5 · both teams together expected to score about 208.5 points · odds to win: BOS 1.46, NYK 2.93

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Mon 23:30 UTC

BOS 113 – NYK 121

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: BOS = Boston Celtics, NYK = New York Knicks.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Boston Celticsplaying NYK

Derrick White · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 23 actual

Jaylen Brown · minutes unknown

points 22.5 → 20 actual

Jayson Tatum · minutes unknown

points 27.5 → 42 actual

Payton Pritchard · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 12 actual

New York Knicksplaying BOS

Jalen Brunson · minutes unknown

points 27.5 → 39 actual

Josh Hart · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 6 actual

Karl-Anthony Towns · minutes unknown

points 19.5 → 23 actual

Mikal Bridges · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 23 actual

Miles McBride · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 6 actual

Mitchell Robinson · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 4 actual

OG Anunoby · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 20 actual

What could go wrong

updated 08:16 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

BOS had 147 days off before this game · NYK had 105 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 224 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Mikal Bridges · points 13.5 → 23 · 9.5 above the line · played 44.2 min · no final price

Jayson Tatum · points 27.5 → 42 · 14.5 above the line · played 39.6 min · no final price

Josh Hart · points 11.5 → 6 · 5.5 below the line · played 29.6 min · no final price

Jalen Brunson · points 27.5 → 39 · 11.5 above the line · played 40.4 min · no final price

Derrick White · points 16.5 → 23 · 6.5 above the line · played 43.5 min · no final price

OG Anunoby · points 14.5 → 20 · 5.5 above the line · played 39.7 min · no final price

Miles McBride · points 4.5 → 6 · 1.5 above the line · played 19.9 min · no final price

Payton Pritchard · points 9.5 → 12 · 2.5 above the line · played 20.4 min · no final price

Karl-Anthony Towns · points 19.5 → 23 · 3.5 above the line · played 35.9 min · no final price

Jaylen Brown · points 22.5 → 20 · 2.5 below the line · played 32.6 min · no final price

Mitchell Robinson · points 4.5 → 4 · 0.5 below the line · played 25.1 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

NYK vs BOS · last 33 games · BOS leads · NYK record 15–18 · average score 108.1–110.7 · NYK has lost by 2.6 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

9 Apr · BOS 106 at NYK 112NYK won

What each defense gives up per game

BOS gives up106.9 points · 41.2 rebounds · 24.5 assists · 35.8% from three-point range

NYK gives up108.3 points · 40.0 rebounds · 24.3 assists · 35.4% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

BOS gives up 106.9 points a game · 1st of 30 · league average 115.3−8.5 vs average

NYK gives up 108.3 points a game · 3rd of 30 · league average 115.3−7.1 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had BOS expected to win by 5.5, expected total 208.5 (Mon 23:30 UTC) and had not changed it by Mon 23:30 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 66

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 242 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 243 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-11)ok 200 · 243 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-10)ok 200 · 244 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-09)ok 200 · 245 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-08)ok 200 · 246 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-07)ok 200 · 247 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-06)ok 200 · 247 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-05)ok 200 · 248 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-04)ok 200 · 249 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-03)ok 200 · 249 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-02)ok 200 · 250 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-01)ok 200 · 250 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-30)ok 200 · 251 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-29)ok 200 · 251 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-28)ok 200 · 253 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 257 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 267 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 267 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 269 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 270 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 285 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 504 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 301 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 570 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 1 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 1 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 573 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 587 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 591 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 502 · 630 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1085 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 8 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 8 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 8 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 7 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1098 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 39 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 53 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 60 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 64 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 71 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 79 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 192 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 199 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 211 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 221 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 233 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 607 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 906 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 911 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 915 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 916 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1003 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1009 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1033 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1040 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1130 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.