NBA · Oct 21 gameAll props Full sheet

Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers

FinalGSW 119 – LAL 109Page updated 17:45 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes10 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Golden State Warriors

Al Horford · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Brandin Podziemski · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 2 actual

Draymond Green · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Gary Payton II · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 6 actual

Jimmy Butler III · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 4 actual

Stephen Curry · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 4 actual

Los Angeles Lakers

Austin Reaves · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 9 actual

Jake LaRavia · minutes unknown

rebounds 2.5 → 3 actual

Jarred Vanderbilt · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 3 actual

Luka Dončić · minutes unknown

points 30.5 → 43 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

GSW expected to win by about 2.5 · both teams together expected to score about 227.5 points · odds to win: GSW 1.76, LAL 2.19

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Wed 01:55 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 17:45 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

GSW had 160 days off before this game · LAL had 174 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 324 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 0 of 3 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

10 other players with a posted line

Austin Reaves · assists 5.5 → 9 · 3.5 above the line · played 36.3 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Jarred Vanderbilt · rebounds 5.5 → 3 · 2.5 below the line · played 11.9 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.67, Under 2.15

Brandin Podziemski · assists 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 32.5 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Luka Dončić · points 30.5 → 43 · 12.5 above the line · played 41 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.85

Al Horford · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 20.2 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.25, Under 1.63

Draymond Green · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 28.4 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.45, Under 1.50

Gary Payton II · points 4.5 → 6 · 1.5 above the line · played 12.1 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Jimmy Butler III · assists 5.5 → 4 · 1.5 below the line · played 34.7 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.15, Under 1.65

Stephen Curry · assists 5.5 → 4 · 1.5 below the line · played 32.1 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.74

Jake LaRavia · rebounds 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 15.8 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.57, Under 2.30

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

LAL vs GSW · last 30 games · LAL leads · LAL record 18–12 · average score 116.7–113.1 · LAL has won by 3.6 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

9 Apr · LAL 119 at GSW 103LAL won

28 Feb · LAL 129 at GSW 101LAL won

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had GSW expected to win by 2.5, expected total 227.5 (Wed 01:55 UTC) and had not changed it by Wed 01:55 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 49

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 19 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 21 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 23 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 98 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 101 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 109 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 110 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 111 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 110 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 92 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 112 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 116 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 117 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 120 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 4 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 140 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 132 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 134 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 139 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 144 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 150 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 160 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 169 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 172 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 174 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 185 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 195 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 204 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 207 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 208 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 212 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 224 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 246 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 258 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 266 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 273 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 488 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1704 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1660 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1662 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1682 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1684 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1683 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1684 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1685 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1687 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1688 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 2047 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.