NBA · Finalupdated 19:41 UTC

Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves

at Minnesota Timberwolves

No game odds posted yet

DEN 127 – MIN 114

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: DEN = Denver Nuggets, MIN = Minnesota Timberwolves.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

11 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 11 players has performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Denver Nuggetsplaying MIN

Aaron Gordon · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Cameron Johnson · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 5 actual

Christian Braun · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 7 actual

Jamal Murray · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 5 actual

Nikola Jokić · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Minnesota Timberwolvesplaying DEN

Bones Hyland · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Donte DiVincenzo · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 4 actual

Jaden McDaniels · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Jaylen Clark · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → no final stat available

Rudy Gobert · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 8 actual

Terrence Shannon Jr · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 9 actual

What could go wrong

updated 19:41 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

MIN also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 280 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 6 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Aaron Gordon · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 32.8 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.63, Under 2.20

Jamal Murray · 3-pointers 2.5 → 5 · 2.5 above the line · played 37.2 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.08, Under 1.70

Nikola Jokić · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 36.1 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.06

Cameron Johnson · points 12.5 → 5 · 7.5 below the line · played 18.9 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85

Christian Braun · points 11.5 → 7 · 4.5 below the line · played 27.5 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.73

Bones Hyland · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 15.6 min · Caesars odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.69

Jaden McDaniels · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 35.4 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.63, Under 1.44

Rudy Gobert · points 10.5 → 8 · 2.5 below the line · played 26.5 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.76, Under 2.00

Terrence Shannon Jr · points 7.5 → 9 · 1.5 above the line · played 25.2 min · Fanatics odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Donte DiVincenzo · assists 4.5 → 4 · 0.5 below the line · played 29.9 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.70, Under 2.08

Jaylen Clark · points 4.5 → no final stat available · BetMGM odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.77

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

MIN vs DEN · last 45 games · DEN leads · MIN record 21–24 · average score 112.2–111.1 · MIN has won by 1.2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

30 Apr · DEN 98 at MIN 110MIN won

27 Apr · MIN 113 at DEN 125MIN lost

25 Apr · DEN 96 at MIN 112MIN won

23 Apr · DEN 96 at MIN 113MIN won

20 Apr · MIN 119 at DEN 114MIN won

18 Apr · MIN 105 at DEN 116MIN lost

1 Mar · MIN 117 at DEN 108MIN won

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 52

sds history (h2h)ok · 11 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 12 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 14 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 30 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 88 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 93 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 94 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 93 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 93 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 94 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 95 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 98 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 99 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 5 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 6 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 102 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 118 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 30 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 81 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 136 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 143 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 145 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 146 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 150 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 161 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 166 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 169 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 177 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 182 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 191 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 197 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 202 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 205 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 204 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 391 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 293 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 357 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 526 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 790 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 694 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 706 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 756 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 801 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 853 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 854 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 855 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 854 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1265 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.