NBA · Nov 10 gameAll props Full sheet

Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat

FinalCLE 138 – MIA 140Page updated 18:45 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes11 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Donovan Mitchell · minutes unknown

3-pointers 3.5 → 3 actual

Evan Mobley · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 5 actual

Jarrett Allen · minutes unknown

rebounds 9.5 → 7 actual

Jaylon Tyson · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

Sam Merrill · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 4 actual

Miami Heat

Andrew Wiggins · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 2 actual

Davion Mitchell · minutes unknown

assists 7.5 → 8 actual

Dru Smith · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 1 actual

Nikola Jović · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 4 actual

Pelle Larsson · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Simone Fontecchio · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 3 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

CLE expected to win by about 7.5 · both teams together expected to score about 248 points · odds to win: CLE 1.36, MIA 3.44

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Tue 00:25 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 18:45 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 287 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Pelle Larsson · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 26.5 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.70, Under 1.43

Simone Fontecchio · 3-pointers 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 16.3 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Dru Smith · assists 3.5 → 1 · 2.5 below the line · played 14.8 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.10, Under 1.69

Sam Merrill · 3-pointers 2.5 → 4 · 1.5 above the line · played 32.6 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.08, Under 1.70

Andrew Wiggins · rebounds 4.5 → 2 · 2.5 below the line · played 37.4 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.73, Under 2.04

Evan Mobley · assists 3.5 → 5 · 1.5 above the line · played 38.7 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.04, Under 1.73

Jaylon Tyson · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 31.1 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.20, Under 1.63

Jarrett Allen · rebounds 9.5 → 7 · 2.5 below the line · played 20.9 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Donovan Mitchell · 3-pointers 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 40.9 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.77

Nikola Jović · assists 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 26.3 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.25, Under 1.61

Davion Mitchell · assists 7.5 → 8 · 0.5 above the line · played 38.2 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.71, Under 2.07

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

MIA vs CLE · last 28 games · MIA leads · MIA record 14–14 · average score 110.1–112.4 · MIA has lost by 2.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

27 Mar · MIA 128 at CLE 149MIA lost

25 Mar · MIA 120 at CLE 103MIA won

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had CLE expected to win by 7.5, expected total 248 (Tue 00:25 UTC) and had not changed it by Tue 00:25 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 52

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 93 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 138 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 215 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 217 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 217 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 220 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 220 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 222 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 223 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 223 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 225 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 5 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 6 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 227 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 236 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 248 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 56 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 108 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 141 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 143 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 143 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 146 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 146 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 153 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 155 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 158 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 161 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 163 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 167 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 171 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 175 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 182 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 183 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 185 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 207 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 546 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 625 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 531 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 533 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 533 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 533 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 532 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 532 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 533 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 532 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 534 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 534 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.