NBA · Finalupdated 18:42 UTC

Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs

at San Antonio Spurs

No game odds posted yet

GSW 125 – SAS 120

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: GSW = Golden State Warriors, SAS = San Antonio Spurs.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

15 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 15 players has performed clearly differently and 4 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Golden State Warriorsplaying SAS

Al Horford · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 3 actual

Brandin Podziemski · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

Draymond Green · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Jimmy Butler III · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 8 actual

Moses Moody · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 5 actual

Stephen Curry · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 5 actual

Will Richard · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

San Antonio Spursplaying GSW

De'Aaron Fox · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 5 actual

Devin Vassell · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 4 actual

Harrison Barnes · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 3 actual

Julian Champagnie · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

Keldon Johnson · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 9 actual

Luke Kornet · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 12 actual

Stephon Castle · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Victor Wembanyama · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 10 actual

What could go wrong

updated 18:42 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

GSW also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 324 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

15 other players with a posted line

Moses Moody · 3-pointers 1.5 → 5 · 3.5 above the line · played 26.2 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.90, Under 1.38

Victor Wembanyama · assists 3.5 → 10 · 6.5 above the line · played 36.4 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.80, Under 1.41

Luke Kornet · points 5.5 → 12 · 6.5 above the line · played 22.2 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.00

Al Horford · 3-pointers 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 22.5 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.20, Under 1.63

Draymond Green · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 26.7 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.50, Under 1.50

Harrison Barnes · 3-pointers 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 25.1 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.78, Under 2.00

Keldon Johnson · rebounds 4.5 → 9 · 4.5 above the line · played 24.5 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Stephon Castle · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 31.2 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.25, Under 1.61

Jimmy Butler III · assists 4.5 → 8 · 3.5 above the line · played 33.8 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.75, Under 1.42

Devin Vassell · 3-pointers 2.5 → 4 · 1.5 above the line · played 35 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.10, Under 1.69

Brandin Podziemski · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 28.9 min · Bovada odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Will Richard · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 21.7 min · Bovada odds: Over 1.36, Under 3.00

Julian Champagnie · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 20 min · Bovada odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.05

Stephen Curry · assists 4.5 → 5 · 0.5 above the line · played 33.5 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.65, Under 1.45

De'Aaron Fox · assists 5.5 → 5 · 0.5 below the line · played 35.5 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.25, Under 1.61

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

SAS vs GSW · last 23 games · GSW leads · SAS record 10–13 · average score 111.1–116.3 · SAS has lost by 5.2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

1 Apr · SAS 127 at GSW 113SAS won

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 64

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 37 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 37 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 38 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 166 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 168 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 170 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 173 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 174 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 176 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 76 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 216 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 252 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 253 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 254 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 258 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 471 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 556 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 779 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 250 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 260 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 266 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 269 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 274 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 275 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 277 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 281 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 282 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 283 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 284 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 287 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 288 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 294 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 312 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 317 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 368 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 374 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 377 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 379 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 399 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 430 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 437 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 452 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 453 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 489 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 493 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 512 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 851 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 874 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 876 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 914 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 920 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 982 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1098 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1100 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1150 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1151 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1179 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1194 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1201 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1200 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1203 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.