NBA · Dec 25 gameAll props Full sheet

Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors

FinalDAL 116 – GSW 126Page updated 16:53 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes13 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Dallas Mavericks

Cooper Flagg · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 5 actual

Daniel Gafford · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 5 actual

Max Christie · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 13 actual

Naji Marshall · minutes unknown

assists 2.5 → 0 actual

P.J. Washington · minutes unknown

rebounds 6.5 → 10 actual

Golden State Warriors

Al Horford · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 14 actual

Brandin Podziemski · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

De'Anthony Melton · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 16 actual

Draymond Green · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 7 actual

Jimmy Butler III · minutes unknown

points 21.5 → 14 actual

Moses Moody · minutes unknown

rebounds 2.5 → 2 actual

Stephen Curry · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 4 actual

Will Richard · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 5 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

GSW expected to win by about 8.5 · both teams together expected to score about 230 points · odds to win: DAL 3.59, GSW 1.32

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Thu 21:55 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 16:53 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 258 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 8 of 10 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

13 other players with a posted line

De'Anthony Melton · points 5.5 → 16 · 10.5 above the line · played 24.1 min · no final price

Max Christie · points 4.5 → 13 · 8.5 above the line · played 33.5 min · no final price

Al Horford · points 6.5 → 14 · 7.5 above the line · played 11.4 min · no final price

Naji Marshall · assists 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 27.7 min · no final price

P.J. Washington · rebounds 6.5 → 10 · 3.5 above the line · played 34.1 min · no final price

Cooper Flagg · assists 3.5 → 5 · 1.5 above the line · played 36 min · no final price

Jimmy Butler III · points 21.5 → 14 · 7.5 below the line · played 31.7 min · no final price

Brandin Podziemski · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 28.4 min · no final price

Moses Moody · rebounds 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 30.5 min · no final price

Draymond Green · points 8.5 → 7 · 1.5 below the line · played 27.6 min · no final price

Daniel Gafford · rebounds 4.5 → 5 · 0.5 above the line · played 15.4 min · no final price

Stephen Curry · assists 4.5 → 4 · 0.5 below the line · played 32.9 min · no final price

Will Richard · points 4.5 → 5 · 0.5 above the line · played 12.7 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

GSW vs DAL · last 29 games · DAL leads · GSW record 13–16 · average score 115.5–116.9 · GSW has lost by 1.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

23 Mar · GSW 137 at DAL 131GSW won

22 Jan · GSW 115 at DAL 123GSW lost

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had GSW expected to win by 8.5, expected total 230 (Thu 21:55 UTC) and had not changed it by Thu 21:55 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 58

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 21 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 91 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 101 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 107 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 108 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 110 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 111 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 113 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 113 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 9 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 10 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 117 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 119 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 121 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 127 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 96 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 514 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 615 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 928 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 58 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 148 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 153 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 159 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 168 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 172 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 173 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 177 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 179 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 190 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 197 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 204 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 204 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 207 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 213 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 222 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 225 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 232 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 235 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 236 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 244 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 246 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 264 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 469 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 478 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 480 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 480 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 480 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 490 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 493 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 495 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 540 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 555 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 702 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 707 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 720 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.