NBA · Finalupdated 17:23 UTC

Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors

at Golden State Warriors

HOU expected to win by about 3.5 · both teams together expected to score about 225.5 points · odds to win: HOU 1.61, GSW 2.40

Game odds from 10 bookmakers, Mon 01:38 UTC

HOU 117 – GSW 116

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: HOU = Houston Rockets, GSW = Golden State Warriors.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

14 players checked · 5 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 14 players has performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Houston Rocketsplaying GSW

Alperen Sengun · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 24 actual

Amen Thompson · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 18 actual

Jabari Smith Jr. · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 5 actual

Kevin Durant · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 3 actual

Reed Sheppard · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 0 actual

Tari Eason · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Golden State Warriorsplaying HOU

Brandin Podziemski · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 2 actual

De'Anthony Melton · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 1 actual

Draymond Green · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Gary Payton II · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 14 actual

Gui Santos · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 4 actual

Kristaps Porziņģis · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 9 actual

Stephen Curry · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 4 actual

Will Richard · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 8.5 → 1 actual

What could go wrong

updated 17:23 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 301 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 1 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

14 other players with a posted line

Jabari Smith Jr. · 3-pointers 2.5 → 5 · 2.5 above the line · played 31.6 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.35, Under 1.54

Reed Sheppard · rebounds 3.5 → 0 · 3.5 below the line · played 26.1 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.07, Under 1.68

Tari Eason · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 19.3 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.15, Under 1.67

Will Richard · points + rebounds + assists 8.5 → 1 · 7.5 below the line · played 5.6 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.95

Gary Payton II · points 7.5 → 14 · 6.5 above the line · played 25.3 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.75, Under 1.42

De'Anthony Melton · rebounds 3.5 → 1 · 2.5 below the line · played 22.8 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.67, Under 2.10

Brandin Podziemski · rebounds 5.5 → 2 · 3.5 below the line · played 36.8 min · Bovada odds: Over 3.05, Under 1.36

Kristaps Porziņģis · points 17.5 → 9 · 8.5 below the line · played 22.6 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85

Draymond Green · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 34.1 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.20, Under 1.61

Alperen Sengun · points 18.5 → 24 · 5.5 above the line · played 36.9 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.85, Under 1.40

Gui Santos · rebounds 5.5 → 4 · 1.5 below the line · played 32.1 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.61, Under 2.20

Kevin Durant · 3-pointers 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 37.3 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.12, Under 1.65

Stephen Curry · assists 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 26.1 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.90, Under 1.38

Amen Thompson · points 17.5 → 18 · 0.5 above the line · played 39.5 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.67, Under 2.10

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

GSW vs HOU · last 30 games · GSW leads · GSW record 22–8 · average score 111.4–105.4 · GSW has won by 5.9 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

5 Apr · HOU 117 at GSW 116GSW lost

5 Mar · GSW 115 at HOU 113GSW won

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

DraftKings first had HOU expected to win by 3.5, expected total 223.5 (Sat 14:13 UTC) and later HOU expected to win by 3.5, expected total 226.5 (Mon 01:38 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 61

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 21 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 95 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 99 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 100 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 99 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 104 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 102 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 108 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 111 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 110 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 116 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 122 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 130 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 91 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 535 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1846 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 2808 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 33 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 39 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 67 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 74 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 167 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 172 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 189 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 216 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 219 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 222 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 223 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 231 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 234 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 242 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 244 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 245 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 247 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 250 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 251 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 256 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 263 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 265 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 267 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 269 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 286 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 310 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 320 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 335 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 662 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 663 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 681 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 682 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 710 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 738 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 883 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 962 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 961 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 965 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 969 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1057 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1064 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1106 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.