02

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

03

The players

14 players checked · 11 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 14 players have performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

New York Knicksplaying ATL

Jalen Brunson · minutes unknown
rebounds 3.5 → 2 actual
Jordan Clarkson · minutes unknown
points 6.5 → 7 actual
Jose Alvarado · minutes unknown
points + rebounds + assists 7.5 → 6 actual
Josh Hart · minutes unknown
points 11.5 → 14 actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · minutes unknown
3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual
Mikal Bridges · minutes unknown
3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual
Miles McBride · minutes unknown
3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual
OG Anunoby · minutes unknown
rebounds 7.5 → 7 actual

Atlanta Hawksplaying NYK

CJ McCollum · minutes unknown
assists 3.5 → 0 actual
Corey Kispert · minutes unknown
points + rebounds + assists 6.5 → 7 actual
Dyson Daniels · minutes unknown
rebounds 6.5 → 0 actual
Jalen Johnson · minutes unknown
assists 5.5 → 6 actual
Nickeil Alexander-Walker · minutes unknown
3-pointers 3.5 → 1 actual
Onyeka Okongwu · minutes unknown
3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual
04

What could go wrong

updated
Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 319 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

05

What happened

In 6 of 11 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.
FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below
14 other players with a posted line
Karl-Anthony Towns · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 27.5 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.20, Under 1.63
CJ McCollum · assists 3.5 → 0 · 3.5 below the line · played 23.6 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.83
Dyson Daniels · rebounds 6.5 → 0 · 6.5 below the line · played 14.9 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.87
Onyeka Okongwu · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 31.8 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.68, Under 2.08
Nickeil Alexander-Walker · 3-pointers 3.5 → 1 · 2.5 below the line · played 29.1 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.25, Under 1.57
Jalen Brunson · rebounds 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 28.8 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.54, Under 2.35
Mikal Bridges · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 26.7 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.50, Under 1.50
Miles McBride · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 9.8 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.73, Under 2.02
Josh Hart · points 11.5 → 14 · 2.5 above the line · played 27.3 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.78
Jose Alvarado · points + rebounds + assists 7.5 → 6 · 1.5 below the line · played 7.2 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83
Jalen Johnson · assists 5.5 → 6 · 0.5 above the line · played 32 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.35, Under 1.56
Jordan Clarkson · points 6.5 → 7 · 0.5 above the line · played 11.4 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.80, Under 1.41
Corey Kispert · points + rebounds + assists 6.5 → 7 · 0.5 above the line · played 15 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.20, Under 1.63
OG Anunoby · rebounds 7.5 → 7 · 0.5 below the line · played 27.2 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.30, Under 1.59

Sign in to see your predictions checked

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context
Head to head

ATL vs NYK · last 35 games · NYK leads · ATL record 13–22 · average score 109.9–114.6 · ATL has lost by 4.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

30 Apr · NYK 140 at ATL 89ATL lost
28 Apr · ATL 97 at NYK 126ATL lost
25 Apr · NYK 114 at ATL 98ATL lost
23 Apr · NYK 108 at ATL 109ATL won
20 Apr · ATL 107 at NYK 106ATL won
18 Apr · ATL 102 at NYK 113ATL lost
6 Apr · NYK 108 at ATL 105ATL lost
What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position
How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

BetRivers first had NYK expected to win by 2, expected total 213.5 () and later NYK expected to win by 3.5, expected total 214 ().

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 75
sds games/date (2026-04-28)ok 200 · 13 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-27)ok 200 · 14 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-26)ok 200 · 15 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-29)ok 200 · 15 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-21)ok 200 · 18 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-22)ok 200 · 20 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-16)ok 200 · 21 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-25)ok 200 · 21 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 22 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-24)ok 200 · 23 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-20)ok 200 · 24 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-19)ok 200 · 24 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-23)ok 200 · 25 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-18)ok 200 · 25 ms
sds history (h2h)ok · 28 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-17)ok 200 · 30 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 100 ms
sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 5 ms
sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 6 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 116 ms
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 117 ms
sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 117 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 121 ms
sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 122 ms
sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 121 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 122 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 125 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 128 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 133 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 90 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 623 ms
odds game timelineok 200 · 1168 ms
grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1608 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 34 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 35 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 36 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 39 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 47 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 54 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 55 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 58 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 63 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 65 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 71 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 72 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 72 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 84 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 110 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 118 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 117 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 118 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 153 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 160 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 167 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 186 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 192 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 201 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 257 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 262 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 271 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 460 ms
odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1445 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1518 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1521 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1530 ms
odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1532 ms
odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1532 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1533 ms
odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1537 ms
odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1582 ms
odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1583 ms
odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1714 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1727 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1730 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1777 ms
Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.