NBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 6 · CLE leads 3–2updated 09:44 UTC

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors

at Toronto Raptors

CLE expected to win by about 4.5 · both teams together expected to score about 218.5 points · odds to win: CLE 1.50, TOR 2.70

Game odds from 8 bookmakers, Fri 22:58 UTC

CLE 110 – TOR 112

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CLE = Cleveland Cavaliers, TOR = Toronto Raptors.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

18 players checked · 11 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 18 players have performed clearly differently and 6 show a slight hint · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Cleveland Cavaliersplaying TOR

Dean Wade · minutes unknown

points 3.5 → 10 actual

Dennis Schröder · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 7 actual

SDonovan Mitchell · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 2 actual

SEvan Mobley · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 26 actual

SJames Harden · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 1 actual

SJarrett Allen · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 14 actual

Jaylon Tyson · minutes unknown

rebounds 2.5 → 4 actual

SMax Strus · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 2 actual

Sam Merrill · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Jr. · Ellis · Jr. · +3 more

Toronto Raptorsplaying CLE

Brandon Ingram · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → no final stat available

Collin Murray-Boyles · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 17 actual

SJa'Kobe Walter · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 5 actual

SJakob Poeltl · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 2 actual

SJamal Shead · minutes unknown

assists 6.5 → 6 actual

Jamison Battle · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

SRJ Barrett · minutes unknown

rebounds 6.5 → 9 actual

Sandro Mamukelashvili · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 2 actual

SScottie Barnes · minutes unknown

assists 7.5 → 14 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Lawson · Temple · Dick · +3 more

What could go wrong

updated 09:44 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Fri 22:32 UTC) · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 382 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 10 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

18 other players with a posted line

Dean Wade · points 3.5 → 10 · 6.5 above the line · played 28.1 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.97

Sam Merrill · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 17.6 min · Bovada odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Scottie Barnes · assists 7.5 → 14 · 6.5 above the line · played 48 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.73, Under 2.02

Jakob Poeltl · points 7.5 → 2 · 5.5 below the line · played 21.5 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.94

Evan Mobley · points 15.5 → 26 · 10.5 above the line · played 41.2 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.79

Sandro Mamukelashvili · points 5.5 → 2 · 3.5 below the line · played 14.4 min · Bovada odds: Over 3.00, Under 1.36

James Harden · 3-pointers 2.5 → 1 · 1.5 below the line · played 44 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.75, Under 1.97

Jaylon Tyson · rebounds 2.5 → 4 · 1.5 above the line · played 16 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.78

Donovan Mitchell · assists 4.5 → 2 · 2.5 below the line · played 41 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.07, Under 1.71

Collin Murray-Boyles · points 11.5 → 17 · 5.5 above the line · played 39.9 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.85

Ja'Kobe Walter · rebounds 3.5 → 5 · 1.5 above the line · played 43 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.83

RJ Barrett · rebounds 6.5 → 9 · 2.5 above the line · played 43.4 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.09, Under 1.71

Jarrett Allen · points 10.5 → 14 · 3.5 above the line · played 33.8 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.98

Jamison Battle · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 11.4 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.55, Under 1.48

Max Strus · 3-pointers 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 19.7 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.10, Under 1.70

Dennis Schröder · points 6.5 → 7 · 0.5 above the line · played 16.2 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.99, Under 1.78

Jamal Shead · assists 6.5 → 6 · 0.5 below the line · played 33.4 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.62, Under 2.17

Brandon Ingram · rebounds 4.5 → no final stat available · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.77

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

TOR vs CLE · last 30 games · TOR leads · TOR record 15–15 · average score 110.7–112.4 · TOR has lost by 1.6 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

3 May · TOR 102 at CLE 114TOR lost

1 May · CLE 110 at TOR 112TOR won

29 Apr · TOR 120 at CLE 125TOR lost

26 Apr · CLE 89 at TOR 93TOR won

23 Apr · CLE 104 at TOR 126TOR won

20 Apr · TOR 105 at CLE 115TOR lost

18 Apr · TOR 113 at CLE 126TOR lost

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

FanDuel first had CLE expected to win by 4.5, expected total 221.5 (Thu 02:35 UTC) and later CLE expected to win by 4.5, expected total 218.5 (Fri 22:26 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 85

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 24 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-28)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-30)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 26 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 28 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-27)ok 200 · 96 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 98 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-24)ok 200 · 98 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 100 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-29)ok 200 · 101 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 102 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-22)ok 200 · 102 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-25)ok 200 · 103 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-19)ok 200 · 104 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-23)ok 200 · 106 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-17)ok 200 · 107 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 109 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-18)ok 200 · 110 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 111 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 112 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 89 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-20)ok 200 · 127 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 135 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 136 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 139 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-21)ok 200 · 142 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-26)ok 200 · 143 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 145 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 647 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 654 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1180 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 54 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 133 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 307 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 314 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 315 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 316 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 318 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 323 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 325 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 327 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 328 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 331 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 333 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 340 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 341 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 350 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 352 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 354 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 355 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 358 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 360 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 362 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 369 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 371 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 377 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 379 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 384 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 387 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 396 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 399 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 406 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 407 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 408 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 417 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 419 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 530 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 642 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 684 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 718 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 752 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 780 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 781 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 781 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 834 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 834 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 849 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1153 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1153 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1188 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1192 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1295 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1314 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1382 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1451 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.