NBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 6 · LAL leads 3–2updated 14:45 UTC

Los Angeles Lakers vs Houston Rockets

at Houston Rockets

HOU expected to win by about 3.5 · both teams together expected to score about 206.5 points · odds to win: LAL 2.52, HOU 1.56

Game odds from 10 bookmakers, Sat 01:08 UTC

LAL 98 – HOU 78

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: LAL = Los Angeles Lakers, HOU = Houston Rockets.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

17 players checked · 14 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 17 players have performed clearly differently and 5 show a slight hint · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Los Angeles Lakersplaying HOU

SAustin Reaves · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 3 actual

SDeandre Ayton · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 7 actual

Jake LaRavia · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 4.5 → 12 actual

Jaxson Hayes · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 5 actual

SLeBron James · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

Luke Kennard · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

SMarcus Smart · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

SRui Hachimura · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 5 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Thiero · James · Knecht · +4 more

Houston Rocketsplaying LAL

Aaron Holiday · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 2 actual

SAlperen Sengun · minutes unknown

points 20.5 → 17 actual

SAmen Thompson · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 18 actual

Dorian Finney-Smith · minutes unknown

points 2.5 → 0 actual

SJabari Smith Jr. · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 1 actual

Josh Okogie · minutes unknown

rebounds 2.5 → 4 actual

Kevin Durant · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 30.5 → no final stat available

SReed Sheppard · minutes unknown

rebounds 2.5 → 0 actual

STari Eason · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Capela · VanVleet · Tate · +3 more

What could go wrong

updated 14:45 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sat 00:15 UTC) · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 301 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 6 of 13 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

17 other players with a posted line

Rui Hachimura · 3-pointers 1.5 → 5 · 3.5 above the line · played 34.7 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.94

Jake LaRavia · points + rebounds + assists 4.5 → 12 · 7.5 above the line · played 16.2 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.91

Dorian Finney-Smith · points 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 7.8 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.85

Reed Sheppard · rebounds 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 36.5 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.88

Jabari Smith Jr. · 3-pointers 2.5 → 1 · 1.5 below the line · played 42 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.79

Josh Okogie · rebounds 2.5 → 4 · 1.5 above the line · played 13.4 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.14, Under 1.64

Aaron Holiday · points 4.5 → 2 · 2.5 below the line · played 11.5 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.77

Deandre Ayton · points 11.5 → 7 · 4.5 below the line · played 28.2 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.96

Austin Reaves · rebounds 4.5 → 3 · 1.5 below the line · played 30.7 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.12, Under 1.69

LeBron James · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 37.1 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.74

Luke Kennard · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 29 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.39, Under 1.55

Marcus Smart · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 34.9 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.73, Under 2.02

Tari Eason · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 37 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.83

Alperen Sengun · points 20.5 → 17 · 3.5 below the line · played 37.6 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.96, Under 1.82

Jaxson Hayes · points 5.5 → 5 · 0.5 below the line · played 16.7 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.72, Under 2.00

Amen Thompson · points 18.5 → 18 · 0.5 below the line · played 44.6 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.89

Kevin Durant · points + rebounds + assists 30.5 → no final stat available · Fanatics odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

HOU vs LAL · last 33 games · LAL leads · HOU record 10–23 · average score 106.8–109.9 · HOU has lost by 3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

1 May · LAL 98 at HOU 78HOU lost

29 Apr · HOU 99 at LAL 93HOU won

26 Apr · LAL 96 at HOU 115HOU won

24 Apr · LAL 112 at HOU 108HOU lost

21 Apr · HOU 94 at LAL 101HOU lost

18 Apr · HOU 98 at LAL 107HOU lost

18 Mar · LAL 124 at HOU 116HOU lost

16 Mar · LAL 100 at HOU 92HOU lost

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

BetRivers first had HOU expected to win by 3.5, expected total 206.5 (Thu 05:41 UTC) and later HOU expected to win by 4, expected total 203.5 (Sat 01:08 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 82

sds games/date (2026-04-30)ok 200 · 142 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-25)ok 200 · 144 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-27)ok 200 · 144 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-23)ok 200 · 146 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-26)ok 200 · 147 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-21)ok 200 · 148 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-24)ok 200 · 149 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-29)ok 200 · 149 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-28)ok 200 · 151 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-20)ok 200 · 152 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-22)ok 200 · 153 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-18)ok 200 · 157 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 161 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 162 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 246 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 249 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 257 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 271 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 273 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 270 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-19)ok 200 · 274 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 273 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 273 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-17)ok 200 · 276 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 275 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 300 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 305 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 92 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 2298 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 2388 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 3281 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 107 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 294 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 362 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 365 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 368 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 370 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 374 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 378 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 421 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 427 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 436 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 442 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 446 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 452 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 458 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 466 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 479 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 571 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 573 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 574 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 577 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 586 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 597 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 600 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 607 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 611 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 618 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 620 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 630 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 632 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 654 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 670 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 672 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 682 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1402 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1545 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1585 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1640 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1645 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1718 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1727 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1764 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1766 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1780 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1816 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1817 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1848 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1884 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1946 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1990 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2000 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.