02

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

03

The players

18 players checked · 13 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 3 of 18 players have performed clearly differently and 7 show a slight hint · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Philadelphia 76ersplaying BOS

Andre Drummond · minutes unknown
points + rebounds + assists 5.5 → 2 actual
SJoel Embiid · minutes unknown
rebounds 8.5 → 12 actual
Justin Edwards · minutes unknown
points + rebounds + assists 2.5 → 0 actual
SKelly Oubre Jr. · minutes unknown
rebounds 5.5 → 5 actual
SPaul George · minutes unknown
assists 3.5 → 1 actual
Quentin Grimes · minutes unknown
points 6.5 → 3 actual
STyrese Maxey · minutes unknown
assists 6.5 → 7 actual
SVJ Edgecombe · minutes unknown
assists 3.5 → 4 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Bona · Terry · Barlow · +4 more

Boston Celticsplaying PHI

SBaylor Scheierman · minutes unknown
3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual
SDerrick White · minutes unknown
assists 3.5 → 4 actual
SJaylen Brown · minutes unknown
assists 4.5 → 4 actual
Jayson Tatum · minutes unknown
assists 6.5 → no final stat available
Jordan Walsh · minutes unknown
points 5.5 → 0 actual
SLuka Garza · minutes unknown
points + rebounds + assists 7.5 → 0 actual
Neemias Queta · minutes unknown
points 7.5 → 17 actual
Nikola Vučević · minutes unknown
points 6.5 → no final stat available
Payton Pritchard · minutes unknown
assists 4.5 → 7 actual
Sam Hauser · minutes unknown
points 8.5 → 11 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Williams · Banton · González · +2 more

04

What could go wrong

updated
Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed () · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 477 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

05

What happened

In 6 of 12 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.
FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below
18 other players with a posted line
Neemias Queta · points 7.5 → 17 · 9.5 above the line · played 32.6 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.71
Justin Edwards · points + rebounds + assists 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 2.3 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.10, Under 1.67
Baylor Scheierman · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 22.4 min · Bovada odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.80
Jordan Walsh · points 5.5 → 0 · 5.5 below the line · played 4.9 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.74
Luka Garza · points + rebounds + assists 7.5 → 0 · 7.5 below the line · played 8.6 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91
Paul George · assists 3.5 → 1 · 2.5 below the line · played 41.8 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.07, Under 1.68
Andre Drummond · points + rebounds + assists 5.5 → 2 · 3.5 below the line · played 8.5 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91
Payton Pritchard · assists 4.5 → 7 · 2.5 above the line · played 39.4 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87
Quentin Grimes · points 6.5 → 3 · 3.5 below the line · played 26.1 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.65, Under 1.45
Joel Embiid · rebounds 8.5 → 12 · 3.5 above the line · played 39.1 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87
Sam Hauser · points 8.5 → 11 · 2.5 above the line · played 29.8 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.70, Under 1.43
VJ Edgecombe · assists 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 43.7 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.20, Under 1.61
Derrick White · assists 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 45.4 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.50, Under 1.50
Jaylen Brown · assists 4.5 → 4 · 0.5 below the line · played 40 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.95
Kelly Oubre Jr. · rebounds 5.5 → 5 · 0.5 below the line · played 31.2 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.23, Under 1.60
Tyrese Maxey · assists 6.5 → 7 · 0.5 above the line · played 45.2 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.70, Under 1.43
Jayson Tatum · assists 6.5 → no final stat available · BetMGM odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87
Nikola Vučević · points 6.5 → no final stat available · Fanatics odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Sign in to see your predictions checked

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context
Head to head

BOS vs PHI · last 44 games · BOS leads · BOS record 23–21 · average score 108.8–104.3 · BOS has won by 4.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

2 May · PHI 109 at BOS 100BOS lost
30 Apr · BOS 93 at PHI 106BOS lost
28 Apr · PHI 113 at BOS 97BOS lost
26 Apr · BOS 128 at PHI 96BOS won
24 Apr · BOS 108 at PHI 100BOS won
21 Apr · PHI 111 at BOS 97BOS lost
19 Apr · PHI 91 at BOS 123BOS won
1 Mar · PHI 98 at BOS 114BOS won
What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position
How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Caesars first had BOS expected to win by 7.5, expected total 207 () and later BOS expected to win by 4.5, expected total 204.5 ().

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 85
sds games/date (2026-04-28)ok 200 · 21 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-01)ok 200 · 24 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-29)ok 200 · 25 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-24)ok 200 · 26 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-27)ok 200 · 27 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-30)ok 200 · 28 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-25)ok 200 · 29 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-20)ok 200 · 30 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-22)ok 200 · 30 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-19)ok 200 · 32 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-26)ok 200 · 33 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-21)ok 200 · 34 ms
sds history (h2h)ok · 34 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 36 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-23)ok 200 · 63 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 63 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 103 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 103 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 105 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-18)ok 200 · 122 ms
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 124 ms
sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 124 ms
sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 124 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 124 ms
sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 133 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 134 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 142 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 87 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 558 ms
odds game timelineok 200 · 691 ms
grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1132 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 54 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 55 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 65 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 69 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 72 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 124 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 131 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 141 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 153 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 166 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 172 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 173 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 176 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 188 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 191 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 204 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 207 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 220 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 223 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 225 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 225 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 228 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 235 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 240 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 243 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 244 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 246 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 247 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 249 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 257 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 259 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 273 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 276 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 277 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 279 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 280 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 2958 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3003 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 3033 ms
odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 3032 ms
odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 3034 ms
odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 3071 ms
odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 3079 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 3471 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 3480 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3480 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 3484 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3483 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 3484 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 3484 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3485 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 3484 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3486 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 3486 ms
Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.