NBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 7 · series tied 3–3updated 07:49 UTC

Orlando Magic vs Detroit Pistons

at Detroit Pistons

DET expected to win by about 8.5 · both teams together expected to score about 202.5 points · odds to win: ORL 3.60, DET 1.31

Game odds from 9 bookmakers, Sun 19:11 UTC

ORL 94 – DET 116

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: ORL = Orlando Magic, DET = Detroit Pistons.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

16 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 16 players have performed clearly differently and 4 show a slight hint · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Orlando Magicplaying DET

Anthony Black · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 5 actual

SDesmond Bane · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 3 actual

Goga Bitadze · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → no final stat available

SJalen Suggs · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 6 actual

SJamal Cain · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 4 actual

SPaolo Banchero · minutes unknown

rebounds 8.5 → 9 actual

Tristan da Silva · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 0 actual

SWendell Carter Jr. · minutes unknown

rebounds 7.5 → 5 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Wagner · Richardson · Howard · +4 more

Detroit Pistonsplaying ORL

SAusar Thompson · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 8 actual

SCade Cunningham · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 4 actual

Daniss Jenkins · minutes unknown

assists 2.5 → 5 actual

SDuncan Robinson · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 2 actual

Isaiah Stewart · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 1 actual

SJalen Duren · minutes unknown

rebounds 9.5 → 15 actual

Javonte Green · minutes unknown

rebounds 2.5 → 2 actual

STobias Harris · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 5 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: LeVert · Lanier · Huerter · +4 more

What could go wrong

updated 07:49 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sun 18:15 UTC) · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 310 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

16 other players with a posted line

Tobias Harris · 3-pointers 1.5 → 5 · 3.5 above the line · played 36.3 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.29, Under 1.58

Tristan da Silva · points 5.5 → 0 · 5.5 below the line · played 8.4 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.98

Daniss Jenkins · assists 2.5 → 5 · 2.5 above the line · played 28.9 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.70, Under 1.43

Isaiah Stewart · rebounds 3.5 → 1 · 2.5 below the line · played 7.6 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.75, Under 2.01

Cade Cunningham · 3-pointers 2.5 → 4 · 1.5 above the line · played 39.5 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.25, Under 1.61

Jalen Duren · rebounds 9.5 → 15 · 5.5 above the line · played 37.1 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.80

Jalen Suggs · points 13.5 → 6 · 7.5 below the line · played 35.9 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.75, Under 2.01

Anthony Black · rebounds 3.5 → 5 · 1.5 above the line · played 32.7 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.73

Wendell Carter Jr. · rebounds 7.5 → 5 · 2.5 below the line · played 38.3 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.65, Under 1.45

Desmond Bane · 3-pointers 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 38.3 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.01, Under 1.75

Duncan Robinson · 3-pointers 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 36 min · Bovada odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Javonte Green · rebounds 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 14.2 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.22, Under 1.63

Ausar Thompson · points 9.5 → 8 · 1.5 below the line · played 33.8 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.90

Jamal Cain · rebounds 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 23.6 min · Caesars odds: Over 2.19, Under 1.63

Paolo Banchero · rebounds 8.5 → 9 · 0.5 above the line · played 41.9 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.55, Under 1.48

Goga Bitadze · rebounds 3.5 → no final stat available · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.76

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

DET vs ORL · last 30 games · ORL leads · DET record 14–16 · average score 106.1–106.6 · DET has lost by 0.5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

3 May · ORL 94 at DET 116DET won

1 May · DET 93 at ORL 79DET won

29 Apr · ORL 109 at DET 116DET won

27 Apr · DET 88 at ORL 94DET lost

25 Apr · DET 105 at ORL 113DET lost

22 Apr · ORL 83 at DET 98DET won

19 Apr · ORL 112 at DET 101DET lost

6 Apr · DET 107 at ORL 123DET lost

1 Mar · DET 106 at ORL 92DET won

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

FanDuel first had DET expected to win by 7.5, expected total 204.5 (Sat 01:39 UTC) and later DET expected to win by 8.5, expected total 201.5 (Sun 19:11 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 79

sds games/date (2026-05-01)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-28)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-24)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-20)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-19)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-27)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-21)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-26)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-02)ok 200 · 17 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 17 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-25)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-23)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-22)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-30)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 24 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-29)ok 200 · 24 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 31 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 93 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 100 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 110 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 111 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 114 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 113 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 42 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 142 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 156 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 60 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 162 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 185 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 90 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 303 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 305 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 309 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 312 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 313 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 314 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 316 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 317 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 318 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 319 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 338 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 341 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 347 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 349 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 350 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 356 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 358 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 359 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 362 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 364 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 370 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 372 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 374 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 376 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 377 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 481 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 387 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 396 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 452 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 671 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 686 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 686 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 686 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 686 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 687 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 687 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 686 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 723 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 830 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 878 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 913 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 914 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 935 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 938 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 959 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.