NBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 7 · TOR leads 3–2updated 07:48 UTC

Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers

at Cleveland Cavaliers

CLE expected to win by about 8.5 · both teams together expected to score about 209.5 points · odds to win: TOR 3.64, CLE 1.30

Game odds from 10 bookmakers, Sun 23:20 UTC

TOR 102 – CLE 114

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: TOR = Toronto Raptors, CLE = Cleveland Cavaliers.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

18 players checked · 12 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 18 players has performed clearly differently and 6 show a slight hint · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Toronto Raptorsplaying CLE

Brandon Ingram · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → no final stat available

Collin Murray-Boyles · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 8 actual

SJa'Kobe Walter · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 3 actual

SJakob Poeltl · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 7 actual

SJamal Shead · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

Jamison Battle · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 3 actual

SRJ Barrett · minutes unknown

points 23.5 → 23 actual

Sandro Mamukelashvili · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 0 actual

SScottie Barnes · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Lawson · Temple · Dick · +3 more

Cleveland Cavaliersplaying TOR

SDean Wade · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 5 actual

Dennis Schröder · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 2 actual

SDonovan Mitchell · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 1 actual

SEvan Mobley · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 13 actual

SJames Harden · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 6 actual

SJarrett Allen · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 22 actual

Jaylon Tyson · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 7 actual

Max Strus · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 2 actual

Sam Merrill · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 13 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Jr. · Ellis · Jr. · +3 more

What could go wrong

updated 07:48 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sun 22:39 UTC) · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 374 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 5 of 11 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

18 other players with a posted line

Sam Merrill · points 5.5 → 13 · 7.5 above the line · played 23.2 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.71

Sandro Mamukelashvili · rebounds 3.5 → 0 · 3.5 below the line · played 8.9 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.03, Under 1.74

Jarrett Allen · points 11.5 → 22 · 10.5 above the line · played 33.3 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.90, Under 1.38

Donovan Mitchell · assists 4.5 → 1 · 3.5 below the line · played 35.2 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.10, Under 1.69

Dennis Schröder · points 6.5 → 2 · 4.5 below the line · played 13.5 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.77, Under 1.95

Collin Murray-Boyles · points 13.5 → 8 · 5.5 below the line · played 23.7 min · Bovada odds: Over 3.10, Under 1.34

Jamal Shead · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 35.5 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.74

Jamison Battle · points 4.5 → 3 · 1.5 below the line · played 13.7 min · Caesars odds: Over 2.07, Under 1.70

Scottie Barnes · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 37.4 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.75, Under 1.42

James Harden · rebounds 4.5 → 6 · 1.5 above the line · played 36.6 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.93

Jakob Poeltl · rebounds 5.5 → 7 · 1.5 above the line · played 22.4 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.75, Under 2.02

Evan Mobley · points 16.5 → 13 · 3.5 below the line · played 27.5 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.90, Under 1.38

Ja'Kobe Walter · 3-pointers 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 37.6 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.74

Max Strus · 3-pointers 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 30.8 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.85, Under 1.40

Dean Wade · points 4.5 → 5 · 0.5 above the line · played 21.1 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.06, Under 1.74

Jaylon Tyson · points 6.5 → 7 · 0.5 above the line · played 18.8 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.76, Under 1.98

RJ Barrett · points 23.5 → 23 · 0.5 below the line · played 43 min · Bovada odds: Over 3.00, Under 1.36

Brandon Ingram · 3-pointers 1.5 → no final stat available · DraftKings odds: Over 2.36, Under 1.56

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

CLE vs TOR · last 30 games · CLE leads · CLE record 15–15 · average score 112.4–110.7 · CLE has won by 1.6 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

3 May · TOR 102 at CLE 114CLE won

1 May · CLE 110 at TOR 112CLE lost

29 Apr · TOR 120 at CLE 125CLE won

26 Apr · CLE 89 at TOR 93CLE lost

23 Apr · CLE 104 at TOR 126CLE lost

20 Apr · TOR 105 at CLE 115CLE won

18 Apr · TOR 113 at CLE 126CLE won

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Fanatics first had CLE expected to win by 7.5, expected total 211.5 (Sat 02:42 UTC) and later CLE expected to win by 8.5, expected total 209 (Sun 23:20 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 85

sds games/date (2026-05-01)ok 200 · 54 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-02)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-30)ok 200 · 55 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-27)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-29)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-28)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-26)ok 200 · 58 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-25)ok 200 · 58 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-24)ok 200 · 59 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-23)ok 200 · 60 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-22)ok 200 · 60 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 86 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 94 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 97 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 157 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 190 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 191 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 194 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 206 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 207 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 209 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-19)ok 200 · 216 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-21)ok 200 · 218 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-20)ok 200 · 221 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 139 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 234 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 247 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 249 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 792 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1329 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1669 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 73 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 76 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 114 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 118 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 119 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 120 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 158 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 168 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 179 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 185 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 205 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 213 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 218 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 229 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 254 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 301 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 307 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 311 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 326 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 334 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 337 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 340 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 348 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 355 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 356 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 381 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 383 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 390 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 392 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 394 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 395 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 397 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 399 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 427 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 2884 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3160 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 3160 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3161 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3163 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 3165 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 3170 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3171 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 3178 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 3179 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 3182 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 3182 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3333 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3334 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3449 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3460 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3502 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 3544 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.