NBA · Final · Playoffs round 2, game 1 · first game of the seriesupdated 07:49 UTC

Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs

at San Antonio Spurs

SAS expected to win by about 11.5 · both teams together expected to score about 217.5 points · odds to win: MIN 4.27, SAS 1.24

Game odds from 10 bookmakers, Tue 01:29 UTC

MIN 104 – SAS 102

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: MIN = Minnesota Timberwolves, SAS = San Antonio Spurs.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

18 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 18 players has performed clearly differently and 5 show a slight hint · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Minnesota Timberwolvesplaying SAS

Anthony Edwards · minutes unknown

points 24.5 → 18 actual

Ayo Dosunmu · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → no final stat available

Bones Hyland · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

SJaden McDaniels · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

SJulius Randle · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 2 actual

SMike Conley · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 6 actual

Naz Reid · minutes unknown

rebounds 6.5 → 9 actual

SRudy Gobert · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 7 actual

STerrence Shannon Jr · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: DiVincenzo · Clark · Beringer · +3 more

San Antonio Spursplaying MIN

SDe'Aaron Fox · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 6 actual

SDevin Vassell · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 14 actual

Dylan Harper · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 18 actual

Harrison Barnes · minutes unknown

3-pointers 0.5 → 0 actual

SJulian Champagnie · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 17 actual

Keldon Johnson · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 11 actual

Luke Kornet · minutes unknown

points 3.5 → 2 actual

SStephon Castle · minutes unknown

assists 7.5 → 5 actual

SVictor Wembanyama · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 5 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Biyombo · Bryant · McLaughlin · +3 more

What could go wrong

updated 07:49 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Tue 00:25 UTC) · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 469 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

18 other players with a posted line

Bones Hyland · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 11.9 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.38, Under 1.53

Jaden McDaniels · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 35.6 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.20, Under 1.63

Terrence Shannon Jr · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 34.8 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.71

Harrison Barnes · 3-pointers 0.5 → 0 · 0.5 below the line · played 9.9 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.95

Julian Champagnie · points 8.5 → 17 · 8.5 above the line · played 31.9 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.79

Dylan Harper · points 9.5 → 18 · 8.5 above the line · played 28.9 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Mike Conley · assists 3.5 → 6 · 2.5 above the line · played 24.2 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.10, Under 1.67

Julius Randle · assists 4.5 → 2 · 2.5 below the line · played 41.5 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.18, Under 1.65

Luke Kornet · points 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 8.1 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.93

Victor Wembanyama · assists 3.5 → 5 · 1.5 above the line · played 39.9 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.35, Under 1.53

Naz Reid · rebounds 6.5 → 9 · 2.5 above the line · played 29.7 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.10, Under 1.67

Stephon Castle · assists 7.5 → 5 · 2.5 below the line · played 28.3 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.69, Under 2.12

Keldon Johnson · points 8.5 → 11 · 2.5 above the line · played 23.5 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.80, Under 1.41

Anthony Edwards · points 24.5 → 18 · 6.5 below the line · played 25.3 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.88

Rudy Gobert · points 8.5 → 7 · 1.5 below the line · played 29.7 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.88

Devin Vassell · points 12.5 → 14 · 1.5 above the line · played 36.4 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.95

De'Aaron Fox · assists 5.5 → 6 · 0.5 above the line · played 33.1 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.18, Under 1.65

Ayo Dosunmu · points 17.5 → no final stat available · Caesars odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.88

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

SAS vs MIN · last 29 games · MIN leads · SAS record 11–18 · average score 113.4–115.0 · SAS has lost by 1.5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

15 May · SAS 139 at MIN 109SAS won

12 May · MIN 97 at SAS 126SAS won

10 May · SAS 109 at MIN 114SAS lost

8 May · SAS 115 at MIN 108SAS won

6 May · MIN 95 at SAS 133SAS won

4 May · MIN 104 at SAS 102SAS lost

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Bovada first had SAS expected to win by 12.5, expected total 218 (Mon 16:01 UTC) and later SAS expected to win by 10.5, expected total 218.5 (Tue 01:29 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 85

sds games/date (2026-05-03)ok 200 · 50 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-02)ok 200 · 50 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-29)ok 200 · 51 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-01)ok 200 · 53 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-30)ok 200 · 54 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-28)ok 200 · 54 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-27)ok 200 · 81 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-26)ok 200 · 82 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-25)ok 200 · 83 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-24)ok 200 · 84 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-23)ok 200 · 85 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-22)ok 200 · 87 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-21)ok 200 · 92 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-20)ok 200 · 93 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 96 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 100 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 111 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 133 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 114 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 229 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 232 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 280 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 283 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 283 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 287 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 289 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 289 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 289 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 292 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 73 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 76 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 87 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 92 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 91 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 94 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 96 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 102 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 125 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 131 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 134 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 140 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 143 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 222 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 245 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 256 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 298 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 300 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 305 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 309 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 316 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 323 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 327 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 352 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 354 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 367 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 373 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 410 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 458 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 463 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 462 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 477 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 491 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 494 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 499 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 753 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 868 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 845 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 986 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 996 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 995 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 992 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 992 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1081 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1111 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1170 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1182 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1185 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1240 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1251 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1255 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1256 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1320 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.