NBA · Final · Playoffs round 2, game 1 · first game of the seriesupdated 07:48 UTC

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons

at Detroit Pistons

DET expected to win by about 3.5 · both teams together expected to score about 215.5 points · odds to win: CLE 2.32, DET 1.64

Game odds from 6 bookmakers, Tue 22:29 UTC

CLE 101 – DET 111

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CLE = Cleveland Cavaliers, DET = Detroit Pistons.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

17 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 17 players have performed clearly differently and 5 show a slight hint · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Cleveland Cavaliersplaying DET

SDean Wade · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 5 actual

Dennis Schröder · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 9.5 → 13 actual

SDonovan Mitchell · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 2 actual

SEvan Mobley · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 14 actual

SJames Harden · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 22 actual

SJarrett Allen · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 2 actual

Jaylon Tyson · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 0 actual

Max Strus · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 5 actual

Sam Merrill · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Jr. · Ellis · Jr. · +3 more

Detroit Pistonsplaying CLE

SAusar Thompson · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 5 actual

SCade Cunningham · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 2 actual

Daniss Jenkins · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 12 actual

SDuncan Robinson · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 5 actual

Isaiah Stewart · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 6 actual

SJalen Duren · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 11 actual

Javonte Green · minutes unknown

points 3.5 → 3 actual

STobias Harris · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: LeVert · Lanier · Huerter · +4 more

What could go wrong

updated 07:48 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Tue 21:39 UTC) · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 374 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 5 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

17 other players with a posted line

Jaylon Tyson · points 6.5 → 0 · 6.5 below the line · played 17.6 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.80, Under 1.41

Sam Merrill · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 6.7 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.80

Duncan Robinson · 3-pointers 2.5 → 5 · 2.5 above the line · played 27.9 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.72, Under 2.02

Jarrett Allen · points 12.5 → 2 · 10.5 below the line · played 18.4 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.85

Daniss Jenkins · points 7.5 → 12 · 4.5 above the line · played 28.8 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Donovan Mitchell · assists 4.5 → 2 · 2.5 below the line · played 35.3 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.09, Under 1.70

Ausar Thompson · assists 3.5 → 5 · 1.5 above the line · played 32.8 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.28, Under 1.56

Dennis Schröder · points + rebounds + assists 9.5 → 13 · 3.5 above the line · played 16.2 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.85

Isaiah Stewart · points 4.5 → 6 · 1.5 above the line · played 12.8 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.62, Under 2.17

Tobias Harris · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 38.8 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.71

Jalen Duren · points 15.5 → 11 · 4.5 below the line · played 35.2 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.65, Under 2.14

Cade Cunningham · 3-pointers 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 41.7 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.20, Under 1.63

James Harden · points 18.5 → 22 · 3.5 above the line · played 35 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.80

Javonte Green · points 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 3.2 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.76, Under 2.04

Dean Wade · points 4.5 → 5 · 0.5 above the line · played 27.8 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.94

Max Strus · rebounds 4.5 → 5 · 0.5 above the line · played 27.7 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.64, Under 2.15

Evan Mobley · points 15.5 → 14 · 1.5 below the line · played 34.8 min · Bovada odds: Over 3.10, Under 1.34

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

DET vs CLE · last 33 games · CLE leads · DET record 11–22 · average score 106.3–111.4 · DET has lost by 5.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

17 May · CLE 125 at DET 94DET lost

15 May · DET 115 at CLE 94DET won

13 May · CLE 117 at DET 113DET lost

11 May · DET 103 at CLE 112DET lost

9 May · DET 109 at CLE 116DET lost

7 May · CLE 97 at DET 107DET won

5 May · CLE 101 at DET 111DET won

3 Mar · DET 109 at CLE 113DET lost

27 Feb · CLE 119 at DET 122DET won

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Caesars first had DET expected to win by 3, expected total 216 (Tue 16:40 UTC) and later DET expected to win by 3.5, expected total 217.5 (Tue 22:29 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 82

sds games/date (2026-05-04)ok 200 · 91 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-03)ok 200 · 92 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-02)ok 200 · 92 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-01)ok 200 · 94 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-30)ok 200 · 94 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-29)ok 200 · 95 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-28)ok 200 · 96 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-27)ok 200 · 96 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-26)ok 200 · 97 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-25)ok 200 · 99 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-24)ok 200 · 100 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-23)ok 200 · 101 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-22)ok 200 · 101 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-21)ok 200 · 102 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 105 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 116 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 128 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 147 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 245 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 250 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 251 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 269 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 271 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 281 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 177 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 291 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 293 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 313 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 786 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1056 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1463 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 62 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 66 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 67 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 71 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 73 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 78 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 80 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 83 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 95 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 102 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 101 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 103 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 106 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 162 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 173 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 187 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 184 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 189 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 222 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 223 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 255 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 260 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 286 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 294 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 297 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 301 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 303 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 306 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 305 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 333 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 338 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 480 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 685 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 707 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 709 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 712 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 717 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 714 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 716 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 720 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 728 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 909 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 954 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 955 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 958 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 963 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 969 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 971 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.