NBA · Final · Playoffs round 2, game 1 · first game of the seriesupdated 07:49 UTC

Los Angeles Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder

at Oklahoma City Thunder

OKC expected to win by about 15.5 · both teams together expected to score about 213.5 points · odds to win: LAL 7.00, OKC 1.11

Game odds from 10 bookmakers, Wed 00:04 UTC

LAL 90 – OKC 108

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: LAL = Los Angeles Lakers, OKC = Oklahoma City Thunder.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

17 players checked · 11 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 17 players has performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Los Angeles Lakersplaying OKC

SAustin Reaves · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 6 actual

SDeandre Ayton · minutes unknown

rebounds 8.5 → 11 actual

Jake LaRavia · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 3 actual

Jaxson Hayes · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 3 actual

SLeBron James · minutes unknown

points 20.5 → 27 actual

Luke Kennard · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

SMarcus Smart · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

SRui Hachimura · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 3 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Thiero · James · Knecht · +4 more

Oklahoma City Thunderplaying LAL

SAjay Mitchell · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 4 actual

Alex Caruso · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 5 actual

Cason Wallace · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

SChet Holmgren · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

SIsaiah Hartenstein · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 8 actual

Isaiah Joe · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Jaylin Williams · minutes unknown

points 3.5 → 3 actual

SLuguentz Dort · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 3 actual

SShai Gilgeous-Alexander · minutes unknown

assists 7.5 → 6 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Wiggins · Williams · McCain · +3 more

What could go wrong

updated 07:49 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Tue 23:15 UTC) · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

OKC had 8 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 362 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 11 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

17 other players with a posted line

Rui Hachimura · 3-pointers 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 36.8 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.65, Under 2.12

Jake LaRavia · points 4.5 → 3 · 1.5 below the line · played 13.6 min · Caesars odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.72

Jaxson Hayes · points 4.5 → 3 · 1.5 below the line · played 16.1 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Luke Kennard · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 28.6 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.44, Under 1.53

Marcus Smart · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 32 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.64, Under 2.22

Cason Wallace · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 19.4 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.45, Under 2.66

Chet Holmgren · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 30.8 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.26, Under 1.61

Isaiah Joe · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 11.3 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.68, Under 2.14

LeBron James · points 20.5 → 27 · 6.5 above the line · played 36.3 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.87

Deandre Ayton · rebounds 8.5 → 11 · 2.5 above the line · played 27.4 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.70, Under 2.10

Alex Caruso · points 6.5 → 5 · 1.5 below the line · played 20.4 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · assists 7.5 → 6 · 1.5 below the line · played 35.3 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.20, Under 1.63

Ajay Mitchell · assists 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 27.9 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.88

Jaylin Williams · points 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 20.4 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.80

Luguentz Dort · rebounds 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 27.9 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.62, Under 2.22

Austin Reaves · assists 5.5 → 6 · 0.5 above the line · played 35.9 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.69, Under 2.12

Isaiah Hartenstein · points 8.5 → 8 · 0.5 below the line · played 24.8 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.92, Under 1.84

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

OKC vs LAL · last 29 games · OKC leads · OKC record 15–14 · average score 115.1–111.9 · OKC has won by 3.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

11 May · OKC 115 at LAL 110OKC won

9 May · OKC 131 at LAL 108OKC won

7 May · LAL 107 at OKC 125OKC won

5 May · LAL 90 at OKC 108OKC won

7 Apr · OKC 123 at LAL 87OKC won

2 Apr · LAL 96 at OKC 139OKC won

What each defense gives up per game

OKC gives up107.9 points · 44.6 rebounds · 24.9 assists · 36.7% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

FanDuel first had OKC expected to win by 15.5, expected total 213.5 (Tue 16:08 UTC) and had not changed it by Wed 00:04 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 82

sds games/date (2026-05-04)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-02)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-27)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-25)ok 200 · 15 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 16 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-29)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-03)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-01)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-26)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-24)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 21 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-22)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-30)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-28)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-23)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 26 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-21)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 88 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 99 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 100 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 107 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 109 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 113 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 99 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 115 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 117 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 122 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 549 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 39 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 42 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 46 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 47 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 54 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 133 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 138 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 138 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 143 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 145 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 151 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 161 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 169 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 171 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 173 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 179 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 182 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 185 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 184 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 188 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 189 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 193 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 233 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 250 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 842 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 318 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 899 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 387 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 393 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 474 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 473 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 556 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 564 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 568 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 605 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 609 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 607 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 610 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 609 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 613 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 624 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1027 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1034 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1035 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1035 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.