02

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

03

The players

17 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 17 players have performed clearly differently and 5 show a slight hint · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

San Antonio Spursplaying MIN

SDe'Aaron Fox · minutes unknown
assists 5.5 → 5 actual
SDevin Vassell · minutes unknown
rebounds 4.5 → 6 actual
Dylan Harper · minutes unknown
assists 3.5 → 1 actual
Harrison Barnes · minutes unknown
points + rebounds + assists 4.5 → 1 actual
SJulian Champagnie · minutes unknown
points 8.5 → 6 actual
Keldon Johnson · minutes unknown
rebounds 4.5 → 2 actual
Luke Kornet · minutes unknown
rebounds 3.5 → 1 actual
SStephon Castle · minutes unknown
rebounds 5.5 → 4 actual
SVictor Wembanyama · minutes unknown
assists 3.5 → 1 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Biyombo · Bryant · McLaughlin · +3 more

Minnesota Timberwolvesplaying SAS

SAnthony Edwards · minutes unknown
assists 4.5 → 6 actual
Ayo Dosunmu · minutes unknown
3-pointers 1.5 → 3 actual
SJaden McDaniels · minutes unknown
3-pointers 1.5 → 3 actual
SJulius Randle · minutes unknown
3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual
SMike Conley · minutes unknown
assists 3.5 → 0 actual
Naz Reid · minutes unknown
rebounds 6.5 → 9 actual
SRudy Gobert · minutes unknown
points 7.5 → 13 actual
Terrence Shannon Jr · minutes unknown
points 9.5 → 5 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Hyland · DiVincenzo · Clark · +4 more

04

What could go wrong

updated
Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed () · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 362 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

05

What happened

In 3 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.
FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below
17 other players with a posted line
Ayo Dosunmu · 3-pointers 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 32.1 min · FanDuel odds: Over 2.68, Under 1.45
Jaden McDaniels · 3-pointers 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 40.4 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.45, Under 1.53
Julius Randle · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 31.2 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.25, Under 1.61
Mike Conley · assists 3.5 → 0 · 3.5 below the line · played 4.2 min · Bovada odds: Over 3.05, Under 1.36
Harrison Barnes · points + rebounds + assists 4.5 → 1 · 3.5 below the line · played 6.2 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.00
Rudy Gobert · points 7.5 → 13 · 5.5 above the line · played 31.2 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.77, Under 1.95
Dylan Harper · assists 3.5 → 1 · 2.5 below the line · played 20.1 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.26, Under 1.61
Luke Kornet · rebounds 3.5 → 1 · 2.5 below the line · played 10.5 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.13, Under 1.68
Victor Wembanyama · assists 3.5 → 1 · 2.5 below the line · played 37 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.30, Under 1.59
Keldon Johnson · rebounds 4.5 → 2 · 2.5 below the line · played 18.8 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.71, Under 2.09
Terrence Shannon Jr · points 9.5 → 5 · 4.5 below the line · played 28.4 min · Bovada odds: Over 3.00, Under 1.36
Naz Reid · rebounds 6.5 → 9 · 2.5 above the line · played 32 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.72
Devin Vassell · rebounds 4.5 → 6 · 1.5 above the line · played 36.2 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.59, Under 2.22
Anthony Edwards · assists 4.5 → 6 · 1.5 above the line · played 40.6 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.88
Julian Champagnie · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 28.9 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.80
Stephon Castle · rebounds 5.5 → 4 · 1.5 below the line · played 39.9 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.20, Under 1.63
De'Aaron Fox · assists 5.5 → 5 · 0.5 below the line · played 34.8 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.88

Sign in to see your predictions checked

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context
Head to head

MIN vs SAS · last 29 games · MIN leads · MIN record 18–11 · average score 115.0–113.4 · MIN has won by 1.5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

15 May · SAS 139 at MIN 109MIN lost
12 May · MIN 97 at SAS 126MIN lost
10 May · SAS 109 at MIN 114MIN won
8 May · SAS 115 at MIN 108MIN lost
6 May · MIN 95 at SAS 133MIN lost
4 May · MIN 104 at SAS 102MIN won
What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position
How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

BetRivers first had SAS expected to win by 4.5, expected total 216.5 () and later SAS expected to win by 5.5, expected total 216.5 ().

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 82
sds games/date (2026-05-06)ok 200 · 38 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-04)ok 200 · 39 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-05)ok 200 · 39 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-07)ok 200 · 39 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-03)ok 200 · 40 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-02)ok 200 · 40 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-01)ok 200 · 54 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-29)ok 200 · 55 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-30)ok 200 · 55 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-28)ok 200 · 56 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-27)ok 200 · 70 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-25)ok 200 · 72 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-26)ok 200 · 73 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-24)ok 200 · 74 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 86 ms
sds history (h2h)ok · 89 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 124 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 173 ms
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 185 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 187 ms
sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 189 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 194 ms
sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 216 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 224 ms
sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 225 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 231 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 235 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 88 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 671 ms
odds game timelineok 200 · 1051 ms
grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1362 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 41 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 42 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 46 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 46 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 50 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 51 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 52 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 88 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 92 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 91 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 92 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 97 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 102 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 119 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 126 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 132 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 136 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 139 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 140 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 141 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 155 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 157 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 174 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 188 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 191 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 274 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 277 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 322 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 338 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 352 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 381 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 424 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 437 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 448 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1410 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1412 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1431 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1433 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1459 ms
odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1471 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1548 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1560 ms
odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1583 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1612 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1622 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1624 ms
odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1639 ms
odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1822 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1822 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1824 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1825 ms
Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.