NBA · Final · Playoffs round 2, game 4 · OKC leads 3–0updated 07:49 UTC

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers

at Los Angeles Lakers

OKC expected to win by about 12.5 · both teams together expected to score about 214.5 points · odds to win: OKC 1.17, LAL 5.43

Game odds from 10 bookmakers, Tue 02:18 UTC

OKC 115 – LAL 110

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: OKC = Oklahoma City Thunder, LAL = Los Angeles Lakers.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

18 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 18 players has performed clearly differently and 5 show a slight hint · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Oklahoma City Thunderplaying LAL

SAjay Mitchell · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 3 actual

Alex Caruso · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 9 actual

Cason Wallace · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

SChet Holmgren · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 16 actual

SIsaiah Hartenstein · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 5 actual

Isaiah Joe · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 0 actual

Jared McCain · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 13 actual

Jaylin Williams · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 1 actual

SLuguentz Dort · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

SShai Gilgeous-Alexander · minutes unknown

points 28.5 → 35 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Wiggins · Williams · Williams · +2 more

Los Angeles Lakersplaying OKC

Adou Thiero · minutes unknown

points 1.5 → 0 actual

SAustin Reaves · minutes unknown

assists 6.5 → 6 actual

SDeandre Ayton · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 6 actual

Jaxson Hayes · minutes unknown

points 3.5 → 18 actual

SLeBron James · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

Luke Kennard · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

SMarcus Smart · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 2 actual

SRui Hachimura · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 5 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: James · Knecht · LaRavia · +4 more

What could go wrong

updated 07:49 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Tue 01:35 UTC) · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 336 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 6 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

18 other players with a posted line

Jaxson Hayes · points 3.5 → 18 · 14.5 above the line · played 27 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.99

Jared McCain · points 4.5 → 13 · 8.5 above the line · played 15.9 min · FanDuel odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.78

Isaiah Joe · points 5.5 → 0 · 5.5 below the line · played 7.5 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.83

Adou Thiero · points 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 2.8 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.96

Jaylin Williams · rebounds 3.5 → 1 · 2.5 below the line · played 8.7 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.74

Marcus Smart · rebounds 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 35.6 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.22, Under 1.62

Isaiah Hartenstein · points 8.5 → 5 · 3.5 below the line · played 28 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.08, Under 1.72

Alex Caruso · points 6.5 → 9 · 2.5 above the line · played 21.8 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.70, Under 1.43

Deandre Ayton · points 9.5 → 6 · 3.5 below the line · played 20.8 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.80

Cason Wallace · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 19.3 min · FanDuel odds: Over 3.00, Under 1.38

Luguentz Dort · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 31.1 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.79

LeBron James · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 40.4 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.93

Luke Kennard · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 24.3 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.94

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · points 28.5 → 35 · 6.5 above the line · played 39.3 min · Fanatics odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.95

Ajay Mitchell · rebounds 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 33 min · Fanatics odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.77

Rui Hachimura · rebounds 4.5 → 5 · 0.5 above the line · played 43.2 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.78

Chet Holmgren · points 17.5 → 16 · 1.5 below the line · played 35.2 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.88

Austin Reaves · assists 6.5 → 6 · 0.5 below the line · played 43 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.08, Under 1.70

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LAL vs OKC · last 29 games · OKC leads · LAL record 14–15 · average score 111.9–115.1 · LAL has lost by 3.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

11 May · OKC 115 at LAL 110LAL lost

9 May · OKC 131 at LAL 108LAL lost

7 May · LAL 107 at OKC 125LAL lost

5 May · LAL 90 at OKC 108LAL lost

7 Apr · OKC 123 at LAL 87LAL lost

2 Apr · LAL 96 at OKC 139LAL lost

What each defense gives up per game

OKC gives up107.9 points · 44.6 rebounds · 24.9 assists · 36.7% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

BetRivers first had OKC expected to win by 11, expected total 215 (Mon 16:10 UTC) and later OKC expected to win by 12.5, expected total 214.5 (Tue 02:18 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 85

sds games/date (2026-05-07)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-10)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-05)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-09)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-08)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-02)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-06)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-04)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-01)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-03)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-28)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-27)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-30)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-29)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 23 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 24 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 25 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 26 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 92 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 93 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 98 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 99 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 108 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 109 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 118 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 128 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 134 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 195 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 601 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 625 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 629 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 62 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 64 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 74 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 174 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 205 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 258 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 307 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 315 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 310 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 321 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 317 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 337 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 333 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 342 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 345 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 339 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 346 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 348 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 345 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 352 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 355 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 356 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 362 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 363 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 366 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 362 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 364 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 366 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 367 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 368 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 370 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 381 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 386 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 399 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 408 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1421 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1531 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1535 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1537 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1557 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1608 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1606 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1622 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1642 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1655 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1655 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 2025 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2032 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2026 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 2033 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 2026 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2029 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 2092 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.