NBA · Final · Playoffs round 2, game 5 · series tied 2–2updated 07:48 UTC

Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs

at San Antonio Spurs

SAS expected to win by about 10.5 · both teams together expected to score about 218.5 points · odds to win: MIN 4.30, SAS 1.24

Game odds from 8 bookmakers, Tue 23:43 UTC

MIN 97 – SAS 126

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: MIN = Minnesota Timberwolves, SAS = San Antonio Spurs.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

17 players checked · 10 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 17 players have performed clearly differently and 4 show a slight hint · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Minnesota Timberwolvesplaying SAS

SAnthony Edwards · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 2 actual

SAyo Dosunmu · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 4 actual

SJaden McDaniels · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 3 actual

SJulius Randle · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Mike Conley · minutes unknown

points 2.5 → 5 actual

Naz Reid · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 12 actual

SRudy Gobert · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 4 actual

Terrence Shannon Jr · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 2 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Hyland · DiVincenzo · Clark · +4 more

San Antonio Spursplaying MIN

Carter Bryant · minutes unknown

points 2.5 → 3 actual

SDe'Aaron Fox · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 4 actual

SDevin Vassell · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 3 actual

Dylan Harper · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 2 actual

SJulian Champagnie · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

Keldon Johnson · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 21 actual

Luke Kornet · minutes unknown

points 3.5 → 0 actual

SStephon Castle · minutes unknown

assists 6.5 → 6 actual

SVictor Wembanyama · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 5 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Biyombo · Barnes · McLaughlin · +3 more

What could go wrong

updated 07:48 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Tue 22:49 UTC) · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 358 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 6 of 10 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

17 other players with a posted line

Keldon Johnson · points 8.5 → 21 · 12.5 above the line · played 22.3 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.92, Under 1.84

Jaden McDaniels · 3-pointers 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 29.6 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.25, Under 1.61

Julius Randle · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 36.4 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.64, Under 1.46

Mike Conley · points 2.5 → 5 · 2.5 above the line · played 15.2 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.65, Under 1.45

Luke Kornet · points 3.5 → 0 · 3.5 below the line · played 11 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.94

Terrence Shannon Jr · points 7.5 → 2 · 5.5 below the line · played 17.5 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.88

Anthony Edwards · assists 4.5 → 2 · 2.5 below the line · played 39.2 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.35, Under 1.56

Rudy Gobert · points 7.5 → 4 · 3.5 below the line · played 22.6 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.85

Dylan Harper · assists 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 25.3 min · Fanatics odds: Over 2.20, Under 1.61

Victor Wembanyama · assists 3.5 → 5 · 1.5 above the line · played 32.6 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.15, Under 1.67

Devin Vassell · rebounds 4.5 → 3 · 1.5 below the line · played 32.4 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.20, Under 1.63

Julian Champagnie · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 29.3 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.56, Under 2.36

Carter Bryant · points 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 12.5 min · FanDuel odds: Over 2.04, Under 1.76

Ayo Dosunmu · assists 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 33.3 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.77

De'Aaron Fox · rebounds 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 34.5 min · Bovada odds: Over 3.15, Under 1.33

Stephon Castle · assists 6.5 → 6 · 0.5 below the line · played 27.1 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.68, Under 2.11

Naz Reid · points 12.5 → 12 · 0.5 below the line · played 30.6 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.93

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

SAS vs MIN · last 29 games · MIN leads · SAS record 11–18 · average score 113.4–115.0 · SAS has lost by 1.5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

15 May · SAS 139 at MIN 109SAS won

12 May · MIN 97 at SAS 126SAS won

10 May · SAS 109 at MIN 114SAS lost

8 May · SAS 115 at MIN 108SAS won

6 May · MIN 95 at SAS 133SAS won

4 May · MIN 104 at SAS 102SAS lost

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

LowVig.ag first had SAS expected to win by 10, expected total 219 (Tue 16:06 UTC) and later SAS expected to win by 10, expected total 218.5 (Tue 23:43 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 82

sds games/date (2026-05-11)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-07)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-03)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-05)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-04)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-29)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-30)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-02)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-10)ok 200 · 28 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-28)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-06)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 32 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-08)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-09)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-01)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 115 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 120 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 122 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 124 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 125 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 128 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 128 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 128 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 129 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 130 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 139 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 184 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 98 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 632 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 646 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 871 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 47 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 46 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 45 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 141 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 142 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 144 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 148 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 150 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 152 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 156 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 161 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 164 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 168 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 170 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 171 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 172 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 173 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 176 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 179 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 178 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 189 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 191 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 203 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 205 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 234 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 271 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 274 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 282 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 300 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 307 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 313 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 321 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 339 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 670 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 726 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 726 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 735 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 736 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 742 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 791 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 913 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 914 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 916 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 917 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1049 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1062 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1064 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1063 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1065 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.