02

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

03

The players

18 players checked · 12 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 18 players have performed clearly differently and 7 show a slight hint · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

San Antonio Spursplaying MIN

Carter Bryant · minutes unknown
points + rebounds + assists 4.5 → 10 actual
SDe'Aaron Fox · minutes unknown
3-pointers 1.5 → 3 actual
SDevin Vassell · minutes unknown
rebounds 4.5 → 5 actual
Dylan Harper · minutes unknown
assists 3.5 → 2 actual
Harrison Barnes · minutes unknown
points + rebounds + assists 2.5 → 9 actual
SJulian Champagnie · minutes unknown
3-pointers 1.5 → 4 actual
Keldon Johnson · minutes unknown
rebounds 3.5 → 0 actual
Luke Kornet · minutes unknown
points 2.5 → 6 actual
SStephon Castle · minutes unknown
assists 6.5 → 6 actual
SVictor Wembanyama · minutes unknown
points 26.5 → 19 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Biyombo · McLaughlin · Olynyk · +2 more

Minnesota Timberwolvesplaying SAS

SAnthony Edwards · minutes unknown
assists 4.5 → 2 actual
SAyo Dosunmu · minutes unknown
rebounds 4.5 → 1 actual
SJaden McDaniels · minutes unknown
rebounds 5.5 → 1 actual
SJulius Randle · minutes unknown
3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual
Mike Conley · minutes unknown
points 2.5 → 6 actual
Naz Reid · minutes unknown
rebounds 7.5 → 7 actual
SRudy Gobert · minutes unknown
points 6.5 → 0 actual
Terrence Shannon Jr · minutes unknown
points 6.5 → 21 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Hyland · DiVincenzo · Clark · +4 more

04

What could go wrong

updated
Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed () · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 355 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

05

What happened

In 7 of 12 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.
FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below
18 other players with a posted line
Harrison Barnes · points + rebounds + assists 2.5 → 9 · 6.5 above the line · played 7 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.85
Terrence Shannon Jr · points 6.5 → 21 · 14.5 above the line · played 22 min · FanDuel odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.77
Julian Champagnie · 3-pointers 1.5 → 4 · 2.5 above the line · played 25.7 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.55, Under 2.39
Luke Kornet · points 2.5 → 6 · 3.5 above the line · played 14.2 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.86
Mike Conley · points 2.5 → 6 · 3.5 above the line · played 18.5 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.81
Carter Bryant · points + rebounds + assists 4.5 → 10 · 5.5 above the line · played 13 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.80
De'Aaron Fox · 3-pointers 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 24.4 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.76
Keldon Johnson · rebounds 3.5 → 0 · 3.5 below the line · played 10 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.86
Julius Randle · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 23.7 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.30, Under 1.59
Rudy Gobert · points 6.5 → 0 · 6.5 below the line · played 21.6 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.80, Under 1.41
Jaden McDaniels · rebounds 5.5 → 1 · 4.5 below the line · played 23.4 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.90, Under 1.38
Ayo Dosunmu · rebounds 4.5 → 1 · 3.5 below the line · played 23.4 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.10, Under 1.70
Anthony Edwards · assists 4.5 → 2 · 2.5 below the line · played 35.8 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.27, Under 1.60
Dylan Harper · assists 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 25.7 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.26, Under 1.61
Victor Wembanyama · points 26.5 → 19 · 7.5 below the line · played 27.4 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.86, Under 1.91
Devin Vassell · rebounds 4.5 → 5 · 0.5 above the line · played 27.4 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.24, Under 1.63
Stephon Castle · assists 6.5 → 6 · 0.5 below the line · played 29.8 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.35, Under 1.56
Naz Reid · rebounds 7.5 → 7 · 0.5 below the line · played 31.6 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.75

Sign in to see your predictions checked

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context
Head to head

MIN vs SAS · last 29 games · MIN leads · MIN record 18–11 · average score 115.0–113.4 · MIN has won by 1.5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

15 May · SAS 139 at MIN 109MIN lost
12 May · MIN 97 at SAS 126MIN lost
10 May · SAS 109 at MIN 114MIN won
8 May · SAS 115 at MIN 108MIN lost
6 May · MIN 95 at SAS 133MIN lost
4 May · MIN 104 at SAS 102MIN won
What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position
How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 85
sds games/date (2026-05-14)ok 200 · 27 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-12)ok 200 · 28 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-09)ok 200 · 29 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-10)ok 200 · 29 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-13)ok 200 · 31 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-08)ok 200 · 31 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-07)ok 200 · 32 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 33 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-11)ok 200 · 34 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-01)ok 200 · 34 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-05)ok 200 · 35 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-03)ok 200 · 35 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-02)ok 200 · 36 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-06)ok 200 · 36 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 36 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-04)ok 200 · 38 ms
sds history (h2h)ok · 37 ms
sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 125 ms
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 127 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 129 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 130 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 133 ms
sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 132 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 132 ms
sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 134 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 134 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 107 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 145 ms
grading verdict/boardok 200 · 363 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 8 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 85 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 87 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 88 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 90 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 96 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 97 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 98 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 104 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 105 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 106 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 108 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 109 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 110 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 111 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 114 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 119 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 121 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 125 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 127 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 128 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 128 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 129 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 131 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 133 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 188 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 212 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 220 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 228 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 235 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 262 ms
odds game timelineok 200 · 639 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 277 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 279 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 286 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 670 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 332 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 380 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 2224 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2225 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 2225 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2225 ms
odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 2280 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 2287 ms
odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 2291 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2301 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 2302 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 2308 ms
odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 2392 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 2409 ms
odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 2409 ms
odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 2412 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 2537 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2550 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 2552 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2553 ms
Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.