NBA · Final · Playoffs round 2, game 7 · series tied 3–3updated 07:48 UTC

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons

at Detroit Pistons

DET expected to win by about 4.5 · both teams together expected to score about 204.5 points · odds to win: CLE 2.59, DET 1.53

Game odds from 10 bookmakers, Sun 23:47 UTC

CLE 125 – DET 94

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CLE = Cleveland Cavaliers, DET = Detroit Pistons.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

18 players checked · 10 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 18 players have performed clearly differently and 6 show a slight hint · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Cleveland Cavaliersplaying DET

Dean Wade · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 6 actual

Dennis Schröder · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 2 actual

SDonovan Mitchell · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 8 actual

SEvan Mobley · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 21 actual

SJames Harden · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 9 actual

SJarrett Allen · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 23 actual

SMax Strus · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 1 actual

Sam Merrill · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 5 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Jr. · Tyson · Ellis · +4 more

Detroit Pistonsplaying CLE

SAusar Thompson · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 5 actual

SCade Cunningham · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 0 actual

Caris LeVert · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 11 actual

SDaniss Jenkins · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 5 actual

Duncan Robinson · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 13 actual

Isaiah Stewart · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 3.5 → 3 actual

SJalen Duren · minutes unknown

assists 1.5 → 3 actual

Marcus Sasser · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 4.5 → 12 actual

Paul Reed · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 4 actual

STobias Harris · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Lanier · Green · Huerter · +2 more

What could go wrong

updated 07:48 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sun 23:20 UTC) · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 364 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 7 of 10 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

18 other players with a posted line

Sam Merrill · 3-pointers 1.5 → 5 · 3.5 above the line · played 25.3 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.74

Marcus Sasser · points + rebounds + assists 4.5 → 12 · 7.5 above the line · played 22.8 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.74

Donovan Mitchell · assists 3.5 → 8 · 4.5 above the line · played 31.1 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.77

Jarrett Allen · points 11.5 → 23 · 11.5 above the line · played 24.8 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Cade Cunningham · 3-pointers 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 36.8 min · Caesars odds: Over 2.24, Under 1.59

Jalen Duren · assists 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 25.8 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.75, Under 2.02

Tobias Harris · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 22.6 min · FanDuel odds: Over 2.26, Under 1.62

Dean Wade · rebounds 3.5 → 6 · 2.5 above the line · played 21 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.30, Under 1.59

Caris LeVert · points 6.5 → 11 · 4.5 above the line · played 16.6 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.89

Dennis Schröder · points 5.5 → 2 · 3.5 below the line · played 18.3 min · Bovada odds: Over 3.15, Under 1.33

Max Strus · 3-pointers 2.5 → 1 · 1.5 below the line · played 27.6 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.77

Duncan Robinson · points 8.5 → 13 · 4.5 above the line · played 21.7 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.92, Under 1.82

James Harden · points 18.5 → 9 · 9.5 below the line · played 35.9 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.04, Under 1.74

Paul Reed · points 7.5 → 4 · 3.5 below the line · played 8.2 min · Fanatics odds: Over 1.77, Under 2.00

Daniss Jenkins · assists 3.5 → 5 · 1.5 above the line · played 34.1 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.61, Under 2.24

Ausar Thompson · points 8.5 → 5 · 3.5 below the line · played 28.7 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.88

Evan Mobley · points 15.5 → 21 · 5.5 above the line · played 36 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.97

Isaiah Stewart · points + rebounds + assists 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 6.3 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.74

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

DET vs CLE · last 33 games · CLE leads · DET record 11–22 · average score 106.3–111.4 · DET has lost by 5.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

17 May · CLE 125 at DET 94DET lost

15 May · DET 115 at CLE 94DET won

13 May · CLE 117 at DET 113DET lost

11 May · DET 103 at CLE 112DET lost

9 May · DET 109 at CLE 116DET lost

7 May · CLE 97 at DET 107DET won

5 May · CLE 101 at DET 111DET won

3 Mar · DET 109 at CLE 113DET lost

27 Feb · CLE 119 at DET 122DET won

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 85

sds games/date (2026-05-15)ok 200 · 54 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-13)ok 200 · 55 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-12)ok 200 · 55 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-16)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-14)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-11)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-10)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-09)ok 200 · 71 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-05)ok 200 · 90 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-03)ok 200 · 91 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 93 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 94 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-04)ok 200 · 95 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-08)ok 200 · 102 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-07)ok 200 · 105 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-06)ok 200 · 116 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 118 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 208 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 214 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 219 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 228 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 231 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 234 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 117 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 258 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 273 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 274 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 283 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 605 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 772 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1090 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 46 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 51 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 55 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 69 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 72 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 74 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 78 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 80 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 98 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 98 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 101 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 104 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 175 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 195 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 201 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 252 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 263 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 267 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 268 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 272 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 278 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 282 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 296 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 309 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 385 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 430 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 433 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 435 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 437 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 486 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 484 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 488 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 492 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 495 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 499 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 558 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 782 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 2769 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2915 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 2915 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 2994 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3061 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 3073 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 3076 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 3077 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 3125 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3145 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 3155 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3156 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3209 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 3210 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 3211 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 3212 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.