NBA · Final · Playoffs round 3, game 1 · first game of the seriesupdated 07:48 UTC

San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder

at Oklahoma City Thunder

OKC expected to win by about 6.5 · both teams together expected to score about 218.5 points · odds to win: SAS 3.07, OKC 1.40

Game odds from 9 bookmakers, Tue 00:10 UTC

SAS 122 – OKC 115

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: SAS = San Antonio Spurs, OKC = Oklahoma City Thunder.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

20 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 20 players has performed clearly differently and 5 show a slight hint · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

San Antonio Spursplaying OKC

Carter Bryant · minutes unknown

points 3.5 → 3 actual

De'Aaron Fox · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → no final stat available

SDevin Vassell · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 6 actual

SDylan Harper · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 6 actual

Harrison Barnes · minutes unknown

points 3.5 → 0 actual

SJulian Champagnie · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 9 actual

Keldon Johnson · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 13 actual

Luke Kornet · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 3 actual

SStephon Castle · minutes unknown

assists 6.5 → 11 actual

SVictor Wembanyama · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Biyombo · McLaughlin · Olynyk · +2 more

Oklahoma City Thunderplaying SAS

Ajay Mitchell · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 5 actual

Alex Caruso · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 2 actual

Cason Wallace · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

SChet Holmgren · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

SIsaiah Hartenstein · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 2 actual

Isaiah Joe · minutes unknown

points 2.5 → 0 actual

SJalen Williams · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 3 actual

Jaylin Williams · minutes unknown

rebounds 2.5 → 3 actual

SLuguentz Dort · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

SShai Gilgeous-Alexander · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 3 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Wiggins · McCain · Williams · +2 more

What could go wrong

updated 07:48 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Mon 23:47 UTC) · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 446 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

20 other players with a posted line

Harrison Barnes · points 3.5 → 0 · 3.5 below the line · played 5.9 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.93

Isaiah Joe · points 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 0.3 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.06

Isaiah Hartenstein · points 7.5 → 2 · 5.5 below the line · played 12.2 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.65, Under 1.45

Dylan Harper · assists 3.5 → 6 · 2.5 above the line · played 47 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.61, Under 2.13

Stephon Castle · assists 6.5 → 11 · 4.5 above the line · played 48.8 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.04, Under 1.73

Julian Champagnie · rebounds 5.5 → 9 · 3.5 above the line · played 44.1 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.21, Under 1.63

Keldon Johnson · points 8.5 → 13 · 4.5 above the line · played 21.6 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.70, Under 1.43

Ajay Mitchell · assists 3.5 → 5 · 1.5 above the line · played 33.6 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.20, Under 1.63

Alex Caruso · rebounds 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 31.7 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.40, Under 1.54

Devin Vassell · rebounds 4.5 → 6 · 1.5 above the line · played 50.7 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.18, Under 1.65

Victor Wembanyama · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 48.7 min · Bovada odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.05

Cason Wallace · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 28.2 min · Bovada odds: Over 1.50, Under 2.50

Chet Holmgren · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 40.9 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.13, Under 1.67

Jalen Williams · assists 4.5 → 3 · 1.5 below the line · played 37.3 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.10, Under 1.69

Luguentz Dort · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 22.2 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · rebounds 4.5 → 3 · 1.5 below the line · played 51.3 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.20, Under 1.63

Jaylin Williams · rebounds 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 10.4 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Carter Bryant · points 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 13.7 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.90, Under 1.38

Luke Kornet · rebounds 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 9.5 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.61, Under 2.25

De'Aaron Fox · 3-pointers 1.5 → no final stat available · Bovada odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.74

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

OKC vs SAS · last 31 games · OKC leads · OKC record 17–14 · average score 112.8–110.0 · OKC has won by 2.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

30 May · SAS 111 at OKC 103OKC lost

28 May · OKC 91 at SAS 118OKC lost

26 May · SAS 114 at OKC 127OKC won

24 May · OKC 82 at SAS 103OKC lost

22 May · OKC 123 at SAS 108OKC won

20 May · SAS 113 at OKC 122OKC won

18 May · SAS 122 at OKC 115OKC lost

What each defense gives up per game

OKC gives up107.9 points · 44.6 rebounds · 24.9 assists · 36.7% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

BetRivers first had OKC expected to win by 6.5, expected total 217.5 (Sat 05:44 UTC) and later OKC expected to win by 7.5, expected total 220 (Tue 00:10 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 91

sds games/date (2026-05-15)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-17)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-16)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-12)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-08)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-09)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-11)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-07)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-06)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-10)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-04)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-05)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-13)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 27 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-14)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 113 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 113 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 116 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 115 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 118 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 119 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 121 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 123 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 128 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 131 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 137 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 93 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 738 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1233 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1335 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 29 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 28 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 27 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 27 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 25 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 24 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 23 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 23 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 55 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 348 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 355 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 357 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 358 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 362 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 368 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 371 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 380 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 390 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 397 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 406 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 416 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 423 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 420 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 425 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 447 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 487 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 736 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 738 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 734 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 744 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 751 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 768 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 766 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 938 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 940 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 978 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 980 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 984 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1080 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1081 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1091 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1097 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1104 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1102 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1102 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1105 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.