NBA · Final · Playoffs round 3, game 1 · first game of the seriesupdated 08:50 UTC

Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks

at New York Knicks

NYK expected to win by about 6 · both teams together expected to score about 217.5 points · odds to win: CLE 2.94, NYK 1.46

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Tue 23:40 UTC

CLE 104 – NYK 115

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CLE = Cleveland Cavaliers, NYK = New York Knicks.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

18 players checked · 12 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 18 players have performed clearly differently and 8 show a slight hint · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Cleveland Cavaliersplaying NYK

SDean Wade · minutes unknown

points 3.5 → 10 actual

Dennis Schröder · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 3 actual

SDonovan Mitchell · minutes unknown

points 26.5 → 29 actual

SEvan Mobley · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 15 actual

SJames Harden · minutes unknown

points 19.5 → 15 actual

SJarrett Allen · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 10 actual

Max Strus · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 8 actual

Sam Merrill · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 12 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Jr. · Tyson · Ellis · +4 more

New York Knicksplaying CLE

SJalen Brunson · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 5 actual

Jordan Clarkson · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 3 actual

Jose Alvarado · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 4.5 → 5 actual

SJosh Hart · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 13 actual

SKarl-Anthony Towns · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 13 actual

Landry Shamet · minutes unknown

points 2.5 → 9 actual

SMikal Bridges · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 5 actual

Miles McBride · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 0 actual

Mitchell Robinson · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 4 actual

SOG Anunoby · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 13 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Hukporti · Sochan · Diawara · +2 more

What could go wrong

updated 08:50 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Tue 23:03 UTC) · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

NYK had 9 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 45 of the 324 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 12 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

18 other players with a posted line

Landry Shamet · points 2.5 → 9 · 6.5 above the line · played 17.4 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.88

Dean Wade · points 3.5 → 10 · 6.5 above the line · played 29.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 2.00

Miles McBride · points 7.5 → 0 · 7.5 below the line · played 16.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.84

Sam Merrill · points 6.5 → 12 · 5.5 above the line · played 28.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.77, Under 2.07

Dennis Schröder · points 5.5 → 3 · 2.5 below the line · played 18.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.94

Jalen Brunson · rebounds 3.5 → 5 · 1.5 above the line · played 46.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.36, Under 1.58

Mikal Bridges · rebounds 3.5 → 5 · 1.5 above the line · played 42.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.37, Under 1.58

Jordan Clarkson · points 4.5 → 3 · 1.5 below the line · played 16.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.04, Under 1.79

Karl-Anthony Towns · points 18.5 → 13 · 5.5 below the line · played 40.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.87

James Harden · points 19.5 → 15 · 4.5 below the line · played 42.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.08, Under 1.77

Jarrett Allen · points 12.5 → 10 · 2.5 below the line · played 35.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.01, Under 1.82

OG Anunoby · points 15.5 → 13 · 2.5 below the line · played 34.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 2.00

Max Strus · points 9.5 → 8 · 1.5 below the line · played 25.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.89

Jose Alvarado · points + rebounds + assists 4.5 → 5 · 0.5 above the line · played 6.5 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Mitchell Robinson · points 4.5 → 4 · 0.5 below the line · played 14.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.88

Donovan Mitchell · points 26.5 → 29 · 2.5 above the line · played 40.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.85

Josh Hart · points 12.5 → 13 · 0.5 above the line · played 30.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.95

Evan Mobley · points 15.5 → 15 · 0.5 below the line · played 40.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.07, Under 1.77

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

NYK vs CLE · last 32 games · NYK leads · NYK record 19–13 · average score 105.8–103.6 · NYK has won by 2.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

25 May · NYK 130 at CLE 93NYK won

23 May · NYK 121 at CLE 108NYK won

21 May · CLE 93 at NYK 109NYK won

19 May · CLE 104 at NYK 115NYK won

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had NYK expected to win by 7, expected total 217.5 (Tue 03:47 UTC) and later NYK expected to win by 6, expected total 217.5 (Tue 23:40 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 85

sds games/date (2026-05-17)ok 200 · 41 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-13)ok 200 · 42 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-14)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-16)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-15)ok 200 · 46 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-05)ok 200 · 74 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-07)ok 200 · 75 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 81 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-10)ok 200 · 84 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-06)ok 200 · 85 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-09)ok 200 · 91 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 97 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-08)ok 200 · 99 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 176 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 181 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 192 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-18)ok 200 · 199 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 205 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 211 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 223 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 231 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 237 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-12)ok 200 · 244 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 245 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 257 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 260 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-11)ok 200 · 292 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 115 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 679 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1342 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1672 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 58 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 61 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 65 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 78 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 83 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 89 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 131 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 147 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 178 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 179 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 222 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 237 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 243 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 244 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 248 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 249 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 252 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 254 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 268 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 275 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 302 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 310 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 356 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 361 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 426 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 458 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 510 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 565 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 584 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 590 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 592 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 607 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 613 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 619 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 631 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 638 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 987 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1021 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1061 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1063 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1263 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1266 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1704 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1705 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1705 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1707 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1789 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1996 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1997 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1999 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2000 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.