NBA · Final · Playoffs round 3, game 2 · SAS leads 1–0updated 07:48 UTC

San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder

at Oklahoma City Thunder

OKC expected to win by about 7.5 · both teams together expected to score about 215.5 points · odds to win: SAS 3.21, OKC 1.40

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Thu 00:11 UTC

SAS 113 – OKC 122

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: SAS = San Antonio Spurs, OKC = Oklahoma City Thunder.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

20 players checked · 15 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 20 players has performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

San Antonio Spursplaying OKC

Carter Bryant · minutes unknown

points 3.5 → 0 actual

De'Aaron Fox · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → no final stat available

SDevin Vassell · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 4 actual

SDylan Harper · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 2 actual

Harrison Barnes · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 3.5 → 8 actual

SJulian Champagnie · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 5 actual

Keldon Johnson · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 10 actual

Luke Kornet · minutes unknown

rebounds 2.5 → 2 actual

SStephon Castle · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 5 actual

SVictor Wembanyama · minutes unknown

points 24.5 → 21 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Biyombo · McLaughlin · Olynyk · +2 more

Oklahoma City Thunderplaying SAS

Ajay Mitchell · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 2 actual

Alex Caruso · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 3 actual

Cason Wallace · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 12 actual

SChet Holmgren · minutes unknown

assists 1.5 → 2 actual

SIsaiah Hartenstein · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 10 actual

SJalen Williams · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 1 actual

Jared McCain · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 12 actual

Jaylin Williams · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 5.5 → 11 actual

SLuguentz Dort · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 8 actual

SShai Gilgeous-Alexander · minutes unknown

assists 7.5 → 9 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Wiggins · Joe · Williams · +2 more

What could go wrong

updated 07:48 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Wed 23:12 UTC) · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 63 of the 448 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 12 of 14 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

20 other players with a posted line

Harrison Barnes · points + rebounds + assists 3.5 → 8 · 4.5 above the line · played 12.2 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Isaiah Hartenstein · points 4.5 → 10 · 5.5 above the line · played 27.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.12, Under 1.74

Jared McCain · points 5.5 → 12 · 6.5 above the line · played 25.8 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.94

Carter Bryant · points 3.5 → 0 · 3.5 below the line · played 10.1 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.78

Jaylin Williams · points + rebounds + assists 5.5 → 11 · 5.5 above the line · played 9.8 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.74

Cason Wallace · points 6.5 → 12 · 5.5 above the line · played 24.8 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.83

Jalen Williams · rebounds 4.5 → 1 · 3.5 below the line · played 7.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.75, Under 2.06

Dylan Harper · rebounds 4.5 → 2 · 2.5 below the line · played 24.8 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.67, Under 2.24

Luguentz Dort · points 5.5 → 8 · 2.5 above the line · played 16.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.08, Under 1.76

Ajay Mitchell · assists 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 28.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.31, Under 1.63

Chet Holmgren · assists 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 27 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.23, Under 1.67

Luke Kornet · rebounds 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 10.6 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.77

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · assists 7.5 → 9 · 1.5 above the line · played 38.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.75, Under 2.10

Victor Wembanyama · points 24.5 → 21 · 3.5 below the line · played 37.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.89

Alex Caruso · rebounds 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 25.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.83

Devin Vassell · rebounds 4.5 → 4 · 0.5 below the line · played 37.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.79

Julian Champagnie · rebounds 5.5 → 5 · 0.5 below the line · played 36 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.19, Under 1.69

Stephon Castle · rebounds 5.5 → 5 · 0.5 below the line · played 38.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.28, Under 1.64

Keldon Johnson · points 10.5 → 10 · 0.5 below the line · played 26.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.06, Under 1.78

De'Aaron Fox · assists 4.5 → no final stat available · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.16, Under 1.71

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

OKC vs SAS · last 31 games · OKC leads · OKC record 17–14 · average score 112.8–110.0 · OKC has won by 2.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

30 May · SAS 111 at OKC 103OKC lost

28 May · OKC 91 at SAS 118OKC lost

26 May · SAS 114 at OKC 127OKC won

24 May · OKC 82 at SAS 103OKC lost

22 May · OKC 123 at SAS 108OKC won

20 May · SAS 113 at OKC 122OKC won

18 May · SAS 122 at OKC 115OKC lost

What each defense gives up per game

OKC gives up107.9 points · 44.6 rebounds · 24.9 assists · 36.7% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had OKC expected to win by 6.5, expected total 215.5 (Tue 04:18 UTC) and later OKC expected to win by 7.5, expected total 215.5 (Thu 00:11 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 91

sds games/date (2026-05-14)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-06)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-12)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-10)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-08)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-09)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-07)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-16)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 25 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-13)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 26 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-11)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 28 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-18)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-17)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-19)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-15)ok 200 · 38 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 185 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 187 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 188 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 189 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 189 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 191 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 190 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 192 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 235 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 251 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 142 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 681 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 850 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 976 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 39 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 40 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 42 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 41 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 44 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 46 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 49 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 50 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 52 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 58 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 61 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 87 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 91 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 95 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 96 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 97 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 98 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 100 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 101 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 103 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 104 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 105 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 106 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 179 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 179 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 260 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 269 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 277 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 286 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 287 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 291 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 310 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 315 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 317 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 323 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 364 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 382 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 578 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 603 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 2114 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2117 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 2117 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 2117 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 2118 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 2120 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2121 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 2137 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 2183 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 2241 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2251 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2254 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2261 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 2304 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 2308 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 2312 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2479 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 2586 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.