NBA · Final · Playoffs round 3, game 3 · series tied 1–1updated 07:48 UTC

Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs

at San Antonio Spurs

SAS expected to win by about 2.5 · both teams together expected to score about 218.5 points · odds to win: OKC 2.24, SAS 1.73

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 00:25 UTC

OKC 123 – SAS 108

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: OKC = Oklahoma City Thunder, SAS = San Antonio Spurs.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

20 players checked · 11 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 20 players have performed clearly differently and 6 show a slight hint · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Oklahoma City Thunderplaying SAS

SAjay Mitchell · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 2 actual

Alex Caruso · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 15 actual

Cason Wallace · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 11 actual

SChet Holmgren · minutes unknown

rebounds 8.5 → 3 actual

SIsaiah Hartenstein · minutes unknown

rebounds 8.5 → 8 actual

Isaiah Joe · minutes unknown

3-pointers 0.5 → 1 actual

Jalen Williams · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 20.5 → no final stat available

Jared McCain · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 24 actual

Jaylin Williams · minutes unknown

points 2.5 → 18 actual

SLuguentz Dort · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 0 actual

SShai Gilgeous-Alexander · minutes unknown

assists 7.5 → 12 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Wiggins · Williams · Topić · +1 more

San Antonio Spursplaying OKC

Carter Bryant · minutes unknown

rebounds 1.5 → 1 actual

SDe'Aaron Fox · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 6 actual

SDevin Vassell · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 7 actual

Dylan Harper · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 2 actual

SJulian Champagnie · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 5 actual

Keldon Johnson · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 2 actual

Luke Kornet · minutes unknown

rebounds 2.5 → 2 actual

SStephon Castle · minutes unknown

assists 7.5 → 7 actual

SVictor Wembanyama · minutes unknown

points 25.5 → 26 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Biyombo · Barnes · McLaughlin · +3 more

What could go wrong

updated 07:48 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Fri 23:27 UTC) · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 59 of the 467 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 10 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

20 other players with a posted line

Jaylin Williams · points 2.5 → 18 · 15.5 above the line · played 21.9 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.76, Under 2.02

Jared McCain · points 9.5 → 24 · 14.5 above the line · played 26.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.88

Isaiah Joe · 3-pointers 0.5 → 1 · 0.5 above the line · played 8.7 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.71, Under 2.06

Luguentz Dort · points 5.5 → 0 · 5.5 below the line · played 23.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.89

Ajay Mitchell · points 14.5 → 2 · 12.5 below the line · played 16.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.88

Chet Holmgren · rebounds 8.5 → 3 · 5.5 below the line · played 28 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.23, Under 1.67

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · assists 7.5 → 12 · 4.5 above the line · played 36.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.20, Under 1.68

Devin Vassell · rebounds 4.5 → 7 · 2.5 above the line · played 36.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.13, Under 1.73

Keldon Johnson · rebounds 4.5 → 2 · 2.5 below the line · played 11.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.76, Under 2.08

Cason Wallace · points 7.5 → 11 · 3.5 above the line · played 28.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.95

Alex Caruso · points 10.5 → 15 · 4.5 above the line · played 24.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.86, Under 1.96

Dylan Harper · assists 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 17.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.91

Carter Bryant · rebounds 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 10.5 min · Bovada odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.95

Luke Kornet · rebounds 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 12.5 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.90

De'Aaron Fox · assists 5.5 → 6 · 0.5 above the line · played 30.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.95

Julian Champagnie · rebounds 5.5 → 5 · 0.5 below the line · played 35 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.03, Under 1.81

Stephon Castle · assists 7.5 → 7 · 0.5 below the line · played 34.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.99

Isaiah Hartenstein · rebounds 8.5 → 8 · 0.5 below the line · played 21.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.78, Under 2.07

Victor Wembanyama · points 25.5 → 26 · 0.5 above the line · played 39.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.96, Under 1.86

Jalen Williams · points + rebounds + assists 20.5 → no final stat available · BetMGM odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.80

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

SAS vs OKC · last 31 games · OKC leads · SAS record 14–17 · average score 110.0–112.8 · SAS has lost by 2.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

30 May · SAS 111 at OKC 103SAS won

28 May · OKC 91 at SAS 118SAS won

26 May · SAS 114 at OKC 127SAS lost

24 May · OKC 82 at SAS 103SAS won

22 May · OKC 123 at SAS 108SAS lost

20 May · SAS 113 at OKC 122SAS lost

18 May · SAS 122 at OKC 115SAS won

What each defense gives up per game

OKC gives up107.9 points · 44.6 rebounds · 24.9 assists · 36.7% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had SAS expected to win by 1.5, expected total 216 (Thu 03:44 UTC) and later SAS expected to win by 2.5, expected total 218.5 (Sat 00:25 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 91

sds games/date (2026-05-19)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-14)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-20)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-17)ok 200 · 37 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-16)ok 200 · 37 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-13)ok 200 · 38 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-15)ok 200 · 38 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-21)ok 200 · 40 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-12)ok 200 · 40 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-18)ok 200 · 40 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-11)ok 200 · 41 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-10)ok 200 · 74 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-09)ok 200 · 74 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-08)ok 200 · 75 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 80 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 82 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 209 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 210 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 211 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 212 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 213 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 251 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 252 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 252 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 255 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 269 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 277 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 91 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 923 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1224 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 195 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 225 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 240 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 248 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 265 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 268 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 275 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 277 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 285 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 286 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 288 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 290 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 291 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 293 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 295 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 375 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 380 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 419 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 422 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 443 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 447 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 458 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 459 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 464 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 466 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 471 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 474 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 476 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 478 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 488 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 489 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 493 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 497 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 501 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 504 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 509 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 517 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 591 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1017 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1037 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1039 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1041 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1044 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1044 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1045 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1045 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1045 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1044 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1077 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1079 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1080 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1079 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1218 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1274 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1318 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1320 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.