02

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

03

The players

19 players checked · 12 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 19 players have performed clearly differently and 5 show a slight hint · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Oklahoma City Thunderplaying SAS

Alex Caruso · minutes unknown
points 10.5 → 0 actual
SCason Wallace · minutes unknown
rebounds 3.5 → 4 actual
SChet Holmgren · minutes unknown
points 13.5 → 10 actual
SIsaiah Hartenstein · minutes unknown
assists 2.5 → 3 actual
Isaiah Joe · minutes unknown
3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual
Jalen Williams · minutes unknown
assists 3.5 → no final stat available
Jared McCain · minutes unknown
points 12.5 → 4 actual
Jaylin Williams · minutes unknown
rebounds 4.5 → 3 actual
SLuguentz Dort · minutes unknown
points 5.5 → 2 actual
SShai Gilgeous-Alexander · minutes unknown
rebounds 3.5 → 4 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Wiggins · Mitchell · Williams · +2 more

San Antonio Spursplaying OKC

Carter Bryant · minutes unknown
points 2.5 → 0 actual
SDe'Aaron Fox · minutes unknown
assists 5.5 → 5 actual
SDevin Vassell · minutes unknown
points 13.5 → 13 actual
Dylan Harper · minutes unknown
assists 2.5 → 2 actual
SJulian Champagnie · minutes unknown
points 10.5 → 2 actual
Keldon Johnson · minutes unknown
rebounds 3.5 → 3 actual
Luke Kornet · minutes unknown
rebounds 2.5 → 7 actual
SStephon Castle · minutes unknown
points 16.5 → 13 actual
SVictor Wembanyama · minutes unknown
assists 3.5 → 5 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Biyombo · Barnes · McLaughlin · +3 more

04

What could go wrong

updated
Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed () · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 61 of the 475 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

05

What happened

In 5 of 11 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.
FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below
19 other players with a posted line
Luke Kornet · rebounds 2.5 → 7 · 4.5 above the line · played 13.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.94
Alex Caruso · points 10.5 → 0 · 10.5 below the line · played 14 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.92
Carter Bryant · points 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 6.8 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.95
Julian Champagnie · points 10.5 → 2 · 8.5 below the line · played 29.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.81
Jared McCain · points 12.5 → 4 · 8.5 below the line · played 23.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.93
Luguentz Dort · points 5.5 → 2 · 3.5 below the line · played 17.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.96, Under 1.86
Victor Wembanyama · assists 3.5 → 5 · 1.5 above the line · played 31 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.21, Under 1.68
Isaiah Joe · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 18.8 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over —, Under 1.45
Jaylin Williams · rebounds 4.5 → 3 · 1.5 below the line · played 22.6 min · Caesars odds: Over 2.07, Under 1.71
Chet Holmgren · points 13.5 → 10 · 3.5 below the line · played 25.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.96, Under 1.86
Stephon Castle · points 16.5 → 13 · 3.5 below the line · played 29.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.88
Isaiah Hartenstein · assists 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 17.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.96, Under 1.86
Dylan Harper · assists 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 20.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.98
Cason Wallace · rebounds 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 20.8 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.09, Under 1.76
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · rebounds 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 31.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.25, Under 1.66
Keldon Johnson · rebounds 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 18.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.27, Under 1.65
De'Aaron Fox · assists 5.5 → 5 · 0.5 below the line · played 30.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.03, Under 1.80
Devin Vassell · points 13.5 → 13 · 0.5 below the line · played 33 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.87
Jalen Williams · assists 3.5 → no final stat available · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.86, Under 1.96

Sign in to see your predictions checked

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context
Head to head

SAS vs OKC · last 31 games · OKC leads · SAS record 14–17 · average score 110.0–112.8 · SAS has lost by 2.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

30 May · SAS 111 at OKC 103SAS won
28 May · OKC 91 at SAS 118SAS won
26 May · SAS 114 at OKC 127SAS lost
24 May · OKC 82 at SAS 103SAS won
22 May · OKC 123 at SAS 108SAS lost
20 May · SAS 113 at OKC 122SAS lost
18 May · SAS 122 at OKC 115SAS won
What each defense gives up per game
OKC gives up107.9 points · 44.6 rebounds · 24.9 assists · 36.7% from three-point range
Defense by position
How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 88
sds games/date (2026-05-21)ok 200 · 11 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-23)ok 200 · 12 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-19)ok 200 · 12 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-12)ok 200 · 13 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-16)ok 200 · 14 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-22)ok 200 · 15 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-15)ok 200 · 15 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-11)ok 200 · 15 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-13)ok 200 · 16 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-18)ok 200 · 17 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-17)ok 200 · 19 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-20)ok 200 · 21 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 23 ms
sds history (h2h)ok · 23 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-10)ok 200 · 24 ms
sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 24 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-14)ok 200 · 25 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 91 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 94 ms
sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 96 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 107 ms
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 108 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 108 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 109 ms
sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 109 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 111 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 116 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 90 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 1972 ms
odds game timelineok 200 · 2055 ms
grading verdict/boardok 200 · 2496 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 40 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 42 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 46 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 50 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 50 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 52 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 60 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 61 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 62 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 63 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 68 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 69 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 84 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 88 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 92 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 96 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 137 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 141 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 148 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 151 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 154 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 158 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 161 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 172 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 172 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 173 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 185 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 215 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 232 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 234 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 257 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 288 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 294 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 296 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 299 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 343 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 436 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 492 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 784 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 785 ms
odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 785 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 826 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 868 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 869 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1009 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1022 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1062 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1099 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1175 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1180 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1209 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1227 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1234 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1241 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1248 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1258 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1259 ms
Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.