02

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

03

The players

20 players checked · 16 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games · 2 not checked

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 20 players have performed clearly differently and 4 show a slight hint · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

San Antonio Spursplaying OKC

Carter Bryant · minutes unknown
points + rebounds + assists 3.5 → 8 actual
SDe'Aaron Fox · minutes unknown
points 13.5 → 9 actual
SDevin Vassell · minutes unknown
assists 2.5 → 4 actual
Dylan Harper · minutes unknown
rebounds 3.5 → 6 actual
Harrison Barnes · minutes unknown
points + rebounds + assists 3.5 → 0 actual
SJulian Champagnie · minutes unknown
rebounds 5.5 → 8 actual
Keldon Johnson · minutes unknown
points 7.5 → 15 actual
Luke Kornet · minutes unknown
points 2.5 → 0 actual
SStephon Castle · minutes unknown
assists 6.5 → 6 actual
SVictor Wembanyama · minutes unknown
points 25.5 → 20 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Biyombo · McLaughlin · Olynyk · +2 more

Oklahoma City Thunderplaying SAS

Aaron Wiggins · minutes unknown
points + rebounds + assists 6.5 → 0 actual
Alex Caruso · minutes unknown
rebounds 3.5 → 2 actual
Cason Wallace · minutes unknown
assists 2.5 → 5 actual
SChet Holmgren · minutes unknown
rebounds 7.5 → 11 actual
SIsaiah Hartenstein · minutes unknown
points 7.5 → 12 actual
Isaiah Joe · minutes unknown
points 3.5 → 0 actual
Jalen Williams · minutes unknown
assists 3.5 → no final stat available
SJared McCain · minutes unknown
points 10.5 → 20 actual
Jaylin Williams · minutes unknown
rebounds 4.5 → 4 actual
Kenrich Williams · minutes unknown
points 2.5 → 8 actual
SLuguentz Dort · minutes unknown
points 5.5 → 7 actual
SShai Gilgeous-Alexander · minutes unknown
assists 7.5 → 9 actual

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Mitchell · Topić · Sorber

04

What could go wrong

updated
Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed () · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 66 of the 525 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

05

What happened

In 6 of 15 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.
FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below
22 other players with a posted line
Kenrich Williams · points 2.5 → 8 · 5.5 above the line · played 11.6 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.71, Under 2.10
Carter Bryant · points + rebounds + assists 3.5 → 8 · 4.5 above the line · played 5 min · no final price
Harrison Barnes · points + rebounds + assists 3.5 → 0 · 3.5 below the line · played 3.9 min · no final price
Keldon Johnson · points 7.5 → 15 · 7.5 above the line · played 19.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.01, Under 1.82
Luke Kornet · points 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 8.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.86, Under 1.96
Aaron Wiggins · points + rebounds + assists 6.5 → 0 · 6.5 below the line · played 0.8 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.10, Under 1.67
Cason Wallace · assists 2.5 → 5 · 2.5 above the line · played 31.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.26, Under 1.65
Isaiah Joe · points 3.5 → 0 · 3.5 below the line · played 1.8 min · Bovada odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.80
Jared McCain · points 10.5 → 20 · 9.5 above the line · played 33.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.04, Under 1.79
Dylan Harper · rebounds 3.5 → 6 · 2.5 above the line · played 24.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.10, Under 1.75
Devin Vassell · assists 2.5 → 4 · 1.5 above the line · played 35.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.23, Under 1.67
Isaiah Hartenstein · points 7.5 → 12 · 4.5 above the line · played 30.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.92, Under 1.90
Chet Holmgren · rebounds 7.5 → 11 · 3.5 above the line · played 29.8 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.91
Julian Champagnie · rebounds 5.5 → 8 · 2.5 above the line · played 30.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.16, Under 1.71
Alex Caruso · rebounds 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 28.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.28, Under 1.64
De'Aaron Fox · points 13.5 → 9 · 4.5 below the line · played 32.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.86, Under 1.96
Luguentz Dort · points 5.5 → 7 · 1.5 above the line · played 18.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.91
Victor Wembanyama · points 25.5 → 20 · 5.5 below the line · played 37.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.99, Under 1.83
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · assists 7.5 → 9 · 1.5 above the line · played 37.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.10, Under 1.75
Jaylin Williams · rebounds 4.5 → 4 · 0.5 below the line · played 16.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.04, Under 1.79
Stephon Castle · assists 6.5 → 6 · 0.5 below the line · played 33.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.86, Under 1.96
Jalen Williams · assists 3.5 → no final stat available · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.92

Sign in to see your predictions checked

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context
Head to head

OKC vs SAS · last 31 games · OKC leads · OKC record 17–14 · average score 112.8–110.0 · OKC has won by 2.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

30 May · SAS 111 at OKC 103OKC lost
28 May · OKC 91 at SAS 118OKC lost
26 May · SAS 114 at OKC 127OKC won
24 May · OKC 82 at SAS 103OKC lost
22 May · OKC 123 at SAS 108OKC won
20 May · SAS 113 at OKC 122OKC won
18 May · SAS 122 at OKC 115OKC lost
What each defense gives up per game
OKC gives up107.9 points · 44.6 rebounds · 24.9 assists · 36.7% from three-point range
Defense by position
How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 91
sds games/date (2026-05-24)ok 200 · 10 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-22)ok 200 · 12 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-16)ok 200 · 13 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-14)ok 200 · 14 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-17)ok 200 · 14 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-13)ok 200 · 15 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-15)ok 200 · 15 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-12)ok 200 · 16 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-23)ok 200 · 17 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-20)ok 200 · 17 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-18)ok 200 · 18 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-21)ok 200 · 20 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 20 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-25)ok 200 · 22 ms
sds history (h2h)ok · 22 ms
sds games/date (2026-05-19)ok 200 · 23 ms
sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 23 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 88 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 101 ms
sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 101 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 101 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 102 ms
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 104 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 107 ms
sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 109 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 110 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 119 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 95 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 636 ms
odds game timelineok 200 · 641 ms
grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1055 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 41 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 42 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 42 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 49 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 49 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 50 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 53 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 59 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 63 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 64 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 65 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 65 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 71 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 76 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 81 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 81 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 84 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 86 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 90 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 86 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 92 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 87 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 88 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 88 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 94 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 101 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 94 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 105 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 119 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 136 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 151 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 195 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 200 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 215 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 216 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 224 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 230 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 229 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 241 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 365 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1216 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1239 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1240 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1257 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1321 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1407 ms
odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1421 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1423 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1422 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1427 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1466 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1466 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1468 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1468 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1484 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1481 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1511 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1527 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1537 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1562 ms
Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.