NBA · Final · Playoffs round 3, game 6 · OKC leads 3–2updated 08:51 UTC

Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs

at San Antonio Spurs

No game odds posted yet

OKC 91 – SAS 118

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: OKC = Oklahoma City Thunder, SAS = San Antonio Spurs.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

20 players checked · 17 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 20 players has performed clearly differently and 4 show a slight hint · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Oklahoma City Thunderplaying SAS

Alex Caruso · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 7 actual

Cason Wallace · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 11 actual

SChet Holmgren · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 10 actual

SIsaiah Hartenstein · minutes unknown

rebounds 8.5 → 5 actual

Jalen Williams · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 1 actual

SJared McCain · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 13 actual

Jaylin Williams · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 4 actual

Kenrich Williams · minutes unknown

points 2.5 → 7 actual

SLuguentz Dort · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 5 actual

SShai Gilgeous-Alexander · minutes unknown

assists 8.5 → 4 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Wiggins · Mitchell · Joe · +2 more

San Antonio Spursplaying OKC

Carter Bryant · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 2.5 → 6 actual

SDe'Aaron Fox · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 5 actual

SDevin Vassell · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 12 actual

Dylan Harper · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 18 actual

Harrison Barnes · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 2.5 → 7 actual

SJulian Champagnie · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 10 actual

Keldon Johnson · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 9 actual

Luke Kornet · minutes unknown

points 2.5 → 3 actual

SStephon Castle · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 17 actual

SVictor Wembanyama · minutes unknown

rebounds 12.5 → 10 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Biyombo · McLaughlin · Olynyk · +2 more

What could go wrong

updated 08:51 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Thu 23:06 UTC) · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 62 of the 476 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 10 of 17 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

20 other players with a posted line

Kenrich Williams · points 2.5 → 7 · 4.5 above the line · played 14.9 min · Bovada odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.80

Harrison Barnes · points + rebounds + assists 2.5 → 7 · 4.5 above the line · played 13.4 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.77

Carter Bryant · points + rebounds + assists 2.5 → 6 · 3.5 above the line · played 7.9 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.77, Under 2.00

Dylan Harper · points 8.5 → 18 · 9.5 above the line · played 22.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.81

Jalen Williams · points 13.5 → 1 · 12.5 below the line · played 10.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.98

De'Aaron Fox · points 14.5 → 5 · 9.5 below the line · played 25.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.82, Under 2.01

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · assists 8.5 → 4 · 4.5 below the line · played 28.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.88

Cason Wallace · points 7.5 → 11 · 3.5 above the line · played 20.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.91

Isaiah Hartenstein · rebounds 8.5 → 5 · 3.5 below the line · played 16.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.20, Under 1.68

Alex Caruso · points 9.5 → 7 · 2.5 below the line · played 21.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.93

Chet Holmgren · points 13.5 → 10 · 3.5 below the line · played 24.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.91

Keldon Johnson · points 7.5 → 9 · 1.5 above the line · played 17.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.97

Luke Kornet · points 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 13.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.33, Under 1.62

Victor Wembanyama · rebounds 12.5 → 10 · 2.5 below the line · played 28.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.93

Jaylin Williams · points 4.5 → 4 · 0.5 below the line · played 25.6 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.85

Devin Vassell · points 13.5 → 12 · 1.5 below the line · played 26 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.95

Luguentz Dort · points 5.5 → 5 · 0.5 below the line · played 22.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.78, Under 2.06

Julian Champagnie · points 9.5 → 10 · 0.5 above the line · played 25.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 2.00

Jared McCain · points 12.5 → 13 · 0.5 above the line · played 27 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 2.02

Stephon Castle · points 17.5 → 17 · 0.5 below the line · played 31.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.87

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

SAS vs OKC · last 31 games · OKC leads · SAS record 14–17 · average score 110.0–112.8 · SAS has lost by 2.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

30 May · SAS 111 at OKC 103SAS won

28 May · OKC 91 at SAS 118SAS won

26 May · SAS 114 at OKC 127SAS lost

24 May · OKC 82 at SAS 103SAS won

22 May · OKC 123 at SAS 108SAS lost

20 May · SAS 113 at OKC 122SAS lost

18 May · SAS 122 at OKC 115SAS won

What each defense gives up per game

OKC gives up107.9 points · 44.6 rebounds · 24.9 assists · 36.7% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 91

sds games/date (2026-05-26)ok 200 · 54 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-27)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-24)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-25)ok 200 · 58 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-23)ok 200 · 97 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-22)ok 200 · 98 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-21)ok 200 · 100 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-20)ok 200 · 102 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-19)ok 200 · 103 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-18)ok 200 · 104 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-17)ok 200 · 104 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-16)ok 200 · 105 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-15)ok 200 · 106 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-14)ok 200 · 107 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 113 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 115 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 116 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 166 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 171 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 174 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 178 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 178 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 210 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 218 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 222 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 240 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 242 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 88 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 795 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 844 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1734 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 60 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 67 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 114 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 143 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 217 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 229 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 284 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 302 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 321 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 363 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 370 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 372 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 374 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 378 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 507 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 531 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 541 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 548 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 555 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 665 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 668 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 672 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 679 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 685 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 697 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 708 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 712 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 732 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 739 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 744 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 750 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 758 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 764 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 771 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 776 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 781 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 785 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 815 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 835 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 838 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 864 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 911 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1165 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1252 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1318 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1340 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1372 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1685 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2079 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2080 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2078 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2080 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2081 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2083 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2084 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2088 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 2083 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2086 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 2089 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 2105 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.