NBA · Final · Playoffs round 4, game 1 · first game of the seriesupdated 07:49 UTC

New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs

at San Antonio Spurs

SAS expected to win by about 5 · both teams together expected to score about 217 points · odds to win: NYK 2.61, SAS 1.56

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Thu 00:09 UTC

NYK 105 – SAS 95

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: NYK = New York Knicks, SAS = San Antonio Spurs.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

20 players checked · 14 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 3 of 20 players have performed clearly differently and 5 show a slight hint · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

New York Knicksplaying SAS

SJalen Brunson · minutes unknown

assists 6.5 → 2 actual

Jordan Clarkson · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 3.5 → 1 actual

Jose Alvarado · minutes unknown

points 2.5 → 7 actual

SJosh Hart · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 6 actual

SKarl-Anthony Towns · minutes unknown

rebounds 11.5 → 12 actual

Landry Shamet · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 3 actual

SMikal Bridges · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 3 actual

Miles McBride · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 6 actual

Mitchell Robinson · minutes unknown

points 3.5 → 2 actual

SOG Anunoby · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 3 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Hukporti · Sochan · Diawara · +2 more

San Antonio Spursplaying NYK

Carter Bryant · minutes unknown

points 2.5 → 1 actual

SDe'Aaron Fox · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 7 actual

SDevin Vassell · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 9 actual

Dylan Harper · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 16 actual

Harrison Barnes · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 2.5 → 3 actual

SJulian Champagnie · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 16 actual

Keldon Johnson · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 0 actual

Luke Kornet · minutes unknown

points 2.5 → 0 actual

SStephon Castle · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 17 actual

SVictor Wembanyama · minutes unknown

points 27.5 → 26 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Biyombo · McLaughlin · Olynyk · +2 more

What could go wrong

updated 07:49 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Wed 23:16 UTC) · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

NYK had 9 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 50 of the 392 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 6 of 14 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

20 other players with a posted line

Jose Alvarado · points 2.5 → 7 · 4.5 above the line · played 11 min · Caesars odds: Over 2.13, Under 1.66

Landry Shamet · 3-pointers 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 33.3 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.23, Under 1.60

Keldon Johnson · rebounds 3.5 → 0 · 3.5 below the line · played 8.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.23, Under 1.67

Luke Kornet · points 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 10.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.95

Jordan Clarkson · points + rebounds + assists 3.5 → 1 · 2.5 below the line · played 5.7 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.77

Jalen Brunson · assists 6.5 → 2 · 4.5 below the line · played 37.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.88

Julian Champagnie · points 9.5 → 16 · 6.5 above the line · played 31.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.88

Carter Bryant · points 2.5 → 1 · 1.5 below the line · played 4.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.69, Under 2.20

De'Aaron Fox · points 15.5 → 7 · 8.5 below the line · played 37.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.04, Under 1.79

Dylan Harper · points 10.5 → 16 · 5.5 above the line · played 27.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.85

OG Anunoby · rebounds 5.5 → 3 · 2.5 below the line · played 31.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.94

Mitchell Robinson · points 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 13.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.95

Josh Hart · assists 4.5 → 6 · 1.5 above the line · played 26.8 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.84

Devin Vassell · points 13.5 → 9 · 4.5 below the line · played 36 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.06, Under 1.78

Harrison Barnes · points + rebounds + assists 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 12.1 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.00

Mikal Bridges · rebounds 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 28.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.97

Miles McBride · points 5.5 → 6 · 0.5 above the line · played 19.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.86

Victor Wembanyama · points 27.5 → 26 · 1.5 below the line · played 37.8 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.12, Under 1.74

Karl-Anthony Towns · rebounds 11.5 → 12 · 0.5 above the line · played 34.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.79

Stephon Castle · points 16.5 → 17 · 0.5 above the line · played 34.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.99, Under 1.83

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

SAS vs NYK · last 19 games · NYK leads · SAS record 8–11 · average score 110.1–111.4 · SAS has lost by 1.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

13 Jun · NYK 94 at SAS 90SAS lost

10 Jun · SAS 106 at NYK 107SAS lost

8 Jun · SAS 115 at NYK 111SAS won

5 Jun · NYK 105 at SAS 104SAS lost

3 Jun · NYK 105 at SAS 95SAS lost

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had SAS expected to win by 5, expected total 218 (Sun 03:36 UTC) and later SAS expected to win by 5, expected total 217 (Thu 00:09 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 91

sds games/date (2026-06-01)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-30)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-21)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-28)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-31)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-24)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-26)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-20)ok 200 · 28 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-29)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-27)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 28 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-23)ok 200 · 30 ms

sds games/date (2026-06-02)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-25)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 31 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-22)ok 200 · 32 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 33 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 108 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 111 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 116 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 117 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 116 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 117 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 117 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 121 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 91 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 140 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 171 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 801 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1261 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1590 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 25 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 30 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 31 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 32 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 33 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 34 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 35 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 41 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 47 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 49 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 51 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 55 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 56 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 58 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 60 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 65 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 68 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 72 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 73 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 74 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 77 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 77 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 81 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 83 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 84 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 85 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 91 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 93 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 97 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 100 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 134 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 136 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 138 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 281 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 288 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 289 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 292 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 293 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 405 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1018 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1019 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1022 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1058 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1122 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1125 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1131 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1131 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1291 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1293 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1335 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1379 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1465 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1472 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1491 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1534 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1604 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1856 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2337 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.