NBA · Final · Playoffs round 4, game 4 · NYK leads 2–1updated 07:49 UTC

San Antonio Spurs vs New York Knicks

at New York Knicks

NYK expected to win by about 2 · both teams together expected to score about 216.5 points · odds to win: SAS 2.16, NYK 1.78

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Thu 00:11 UTC

SAS 106 – NYK 107

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: SAS = San Antonio Spurs, NYK = New York Knicks.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

19 players checked · 13 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 5 of 19 players have performed clearly differently and 6 show a slight hint · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

San Antonio Spursplaying NYK

Carter Bryant · minutes unknown

points 0.5 → 5 actual

SDe'Aaron Fox · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 5 actual

SDevin Vassell · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 18 actual

Dylan Harper · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 3 actual

SJulian Champagnie · minutes unknown

assists 1.5 → 3 actual

Keldon Johnson · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 2 actual

Luke Kornet · minutes unknown

points 1.5 → 0 actual

SStephon Castle · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 13 actual

SVictor Wembanyama · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 1 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Biyombo · Barnes · McLaughlin · +3 more

New York Knicksplaying SAS

SJalen Brunson · minutes unknown

points 26.5 → 36 actual

Jordan Clarkson · minutes unknown

points 2.5 → 2 actual

Jose Alvarado · minutes unknown

points 2.5 → 8 actual

SJosh Hart · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 6 actual

SKarl-Anthony Towns · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 13 actual

Landry Shamet · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

SMikal Bridges · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 2 actual

Miles McBride · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 0 actual

Mitchell Robinson · minutes unknown

points 3.5 → 2 actual

SOG Anunoby · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 33 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Hukporti · Sochan · Diawara · +2 more

What could go wrong

updated 07:49 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Wed 23:38 UTC) · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 51 of the 402 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 13 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

19 other players with a posted line

Carter Bryant · points 0.5 → 5 · 4.5 above the line · played 5 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.80

Jose Alvarado · points 2.5 → 8 · 5.5 above the line · played 15.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.76, Under 2.09

Julian Champagnie · assists 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 33 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.31, Under 1.63

Luke Kornet · points 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 4.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.72, Under 2.15

Landry Shamet · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 20.5 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.61, Under 2.11

Miles McBride · points 4.5 → 0 · 4.5 below the line · played 7.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.13, Under 1.73

OG Anunoby · points 16.5 → 33 · 16.5 above the line · played 41.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.88

Victor Wembanyama · assists 3.5 → 1 · 2.5 below the line · played 43.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.21, Under 1.68

Keldon Johnson · points 6.5 → 2 · 4.5 below the line · played 18 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.89

Devin Vassell · points 12.5 → 18 · 5.5 above the line · played 40.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.89

De'Aaron Fox · rebounds 3.5 → 5 · 1.5 above the line · played 37.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.15, Under 1.69

Josh Hart · points 10.5 → 6 · 4.5 below the line · played 32.8 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.85

Mikal Bridges · rebounds 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 28.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.06, Under 1.78

Mitchell Robinson · points 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 13 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.03, Under 1.81

Jalen Brunson · points 26.5 → 36 · 9.5 above the line · played 44.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.93

Karl-Anthony Towns · points 17.5 → 13 · 4.5 below the line · played 25.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.07, Under 1.77

Stephon Castle · points 16.5 → 13 · 3.5 below the line · played 25.9 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.83

Jordan Clarkson · points 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 4.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.95

Dylan Harper · assists 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 32.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.31, Under 1.60

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

NYK vs SAS · last 19 games · NYK leads · NYK record 11–8 · average score 111.4–110.1 · NYK has won by 1.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

13 Jun · NYK 94 at SAS 90NYK won

10 Jun · SAS 106 at NYK 107NYK won

8 Jun · SAS 115 at NYK 111NYK lost

5 Jun · NYK 105 at SAS 104NYK won

3 Jun · NYK 105 at SAS 95NYK won

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had NYK expected to win by 1.5, expected total 216.5 (Tue 04:11 UTC) and later NYK expected to win by 2, expected total 216.5 (Thu 00:11 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 88

sds games/date (2026-05-31)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-30)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds games/date (2026-06-07)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds games/date (2026-06-01)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds games/date (2026-06-02)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds games/date (2026-06-06)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-29)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds games/date (2026-06-03)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds games/date (2026-06-05)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-28)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 19 ms

sds games/date (2026-05-27)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds games/date (2026-06-04)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds games/date (2026-06-08)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 22 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 100 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 99 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 100 ms

sds games/date (2026-06-09)ok 200 · 101 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 101 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 102 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 102 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 104 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 104 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 105 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 107 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 114 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 87 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 947 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1060 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1263 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 40 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 44 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 47 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 49 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 52 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 52 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 53 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 54 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 57 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 58 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 59 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 60 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 64 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 65 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 66 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 67 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 74 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 80 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 82 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 86 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 87 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 90 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 98 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 102 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 104 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 110 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 178 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 184 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 188 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 190 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 194 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 195 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 196 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 201 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 803 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1026 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1029 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1029 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1031 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1031 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1034 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1033 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1037 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1041 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1044 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1043 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1043 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1045 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1142 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1143 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1146 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1157 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1162 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.