02

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed
0 / 0
Latest publication attempt
unknown
Status observed since

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

T. Maxey · Under 19.5 pointsLostPosted at 3.00 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 3.00

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not price NBA player lines

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 2 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →
V. Edgecombe · Under 1.5 assistsLostPosted at 2.90 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked
J. Harden · Under 3.5 reboundsWonPosted at 2.90 · last price before start pendingWon +1.90 per 1 staked
D. Mitchell · Under 3.5 assistsWonPosted at 2.90 · last price before start pendingWon +1.90 per 1 staked
J. Allen · Under 0.5 stealsWonPosted at 2.55 · last price before start pendingWon +1.55 per 1 staked
D. Mitchell · Under 24.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.20 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked
J. Embiid · Under 11.5 rebounds + assistsWithdrawn: outPosted at 2.20 · last price before start pendingWon +1.20 per 1 staked
J. Harden · Over 25.5 points + assistsLostPosted at 2.15 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked
T. Maxey · Over 28.5 points + assistsWonPosted at 2.04 · last price before start pendingWon +1.04 per 1 staked
P. Watson · Under 18.5 points + reboundsWonPosted at 1.82 · last price before start pendingWon +0.82 per 1 staked
E. Mobley · Under 27.5 points + reboundsWonPosted at 1.76 · last price before start pendingWon +0.76 per 1 staked
J. Harden · Under 23.5 points + reboundsWonPosted at 1.74 · last price before start pendingWon +0.74 per 1 staked
K. Caldwell-Pope · Under 4.5 pointsWonPosted at 2.45 · last price before start pendingWon +1.45 per 1 staked
J. Tyson · Under 3.5 reboundsWithdrawn: outPosted at 2.40 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked
A. Simons · Over 8.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.82 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked
J. Tyson · Over 14.5 points + rebounds + assistsWithdrawn: outPosted at 1.71 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked

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Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

03

The players

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 34 rostered players. 16 published picks use separate saved records.

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Cleveland Cavaliersplaying PHI

17 players have no line from any bookmaker: Harden (34 expected minutes) · Mitchell (33 min) · +15 more

Philadelphia 76ersplaying CLE

17 players have no line from any bookmaker: Maxey (36 expected minutes) · Edgecombe (35 min) · +15 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Sign in to view saved research →Coverage has not been checked in this session. Missing access is not missing data.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

04

What could go wrong

updated
Who is out

Out Hukporti · earlier listed as unlisted (changed )

Out Barlow · earlier listed as unlisted (changed )

Fall · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed )

Out Diop · earlier listed as unlisted (changed )

Out Tomlin · earlier listed as unlisted (changed )

Out E. Udeh, Jr. (CLE) · two-way

Out Tyson · right ankle sprain (ankle) · CLE

Out Embiid · right foot foot injury management (foot) · PHI

Out James · low back/sciatica management (back) · PHI

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed () · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

For 3 players (Bryant, Hezonja, Jr.) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Rest

CLE had 9 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. 16 published picks use separate saved records.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Hukporti out () · played

Flagged before the game: Barlow out () · played

Flagged before the game: Fall out () · played

Flagged before the game: Diop out () · played

Flagged before the game: Tomlin out () · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

05

What happened

One game proves nothing.
Final · 9 of 16 picks won9 won, 7 lost · +4.36 if you had staked 1 on each · 22 lines checked, 6 scored but not picked · checked

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

Sign in to see your predictions checked

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context
Head to head

PHI vs CLE · last 25 games · PHI leads · PHI record 14–11 · average score 112.2–112.3 · PHI has lost by 0.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

22 Oct · CLE 106 at PHI 114PHI won
9 Mar · PHI 101 at CLE 115PHI lost
What each defense gives up per game
CLE gives up116.0 points · 44.8 rebounds · 28.3 assists · 33.7% from three-point range
PHI gives up104.9 points · 49.3 rebounds · 23.3 assists · 32.1% from three-point range
Defense by position
How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CLE gives up 116.0 points a game · 20th of 29 · league average 113.7+2.3 vs average
PHI gives up 104.9 points a game · 2nd of 29 · league average 113.7−8.8 vs average
How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 16
VJ Edgecombe · U 1.5 assists+190value_edge_pct +47.01 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2
James Harden · U 3.5 rebounds+190value_edge_pct +42.94 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 3
Donovan Mitchell · U 24.5 points+120value_edge_pct +29.98 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4
Tyrese Maxey · U 19.5 points+200value_edge_pct +21.87 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7
Jaylon Tyson · U 3.5 rebounds+140value_edge_pct +19.54 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 11
Donovan Mitchell · U 3.5 assists+190value_edge_pct +19.46 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 12
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope · U 4.5 points+145value_edge_pct +15.71 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 14
Jarrett Allen · U 0.5 steals+155value_edge_pct +11.42 · kelly 1.85u · price_check unchecked · rank 18
Joel Embiid · U 11.5 ra+120value_edge_pct +10.43 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 20
Evan Mobley · U 27.5 pr−132value_edge_pct +8.95 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 23
James Harden · U 23.5 pr−135value_edge_pct +7.50 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 30
James Harden · O 25.5 pa+115value_edge_pct +7.14 · kelly 1.55u · price_check unchecked · rank 31
Tyrese Maxey · O 28.5 pa+104value_edge_pct +6.01 · kelly 1.45u · price_check unchecked · rank 33
Jaylon Tyson · O 14.5 pra−141value_edge_pct +5.52 · kelly 1.95u · price_check unchecked · rank 36
Anfernee Simons · O 8.5 points−122value_edge_pct +4.21 · kelly 1.30u · price_check unchecked · rank 38
Peyton Watson · U 18.5 pr−122value_edge_pct +4.09 · kelly 1.25u · price_check unchecked · rank 40
Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 22
James Harden Over 25.5 PALOSS −1.00ubet +115 · bet_clv:2309222 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.8% · unexplained · actual 21 · 32.9 min · started
Tyrese Maxey Over 28.5 PAWIN +1.04ubet +104 · bet_clv:2309213 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 52.0% · actual 38 · 41.6 min · started
Anfernee Simons Over 8.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −122 · bet_clv:2307594 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.3% · unexplained · actual 2 · 16.7 min · bench
Donovan Mitchell Under 3.5 ASTWIN +1.90ubet +190 · bet_clv:2307593 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 41.2% · actual 3 · 35.2 min · started
Peyton Watson Under 18.5 PRWIN +0.82ubet −122 · bet_clv:2307599 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.2% · actual 9 · 30.4 min · started
Evan Mobley Under 27.5 PRWIN +0.76ubet −132 · bet_clv:2307597 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.0% · actual 26 · 34.0 min · started
Tyrese Maxey Under 34.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet −150 · bet_clv:2307595 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 63.2% · unexplained · actual 41 · 41.6 min · started
Joel Embiid Under 11.5 RAWIN +1.20ubet +120 · bet_clv:2305991 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.2% · actual 8 · 34.4 min · started
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Under 4.5 PTSWIN +1.45ubet +145 · bet_clv:2305990 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.2% · actual 3 · 24.9 min · started
James Harden Under 3.5 REBWIN +1.90ubet +190 · bet_clv:2305989 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.3% · actual 3 · 32.9 min · started
James Harden Under 23.5 PRWIN +0.74ubet −135 · bet_clv:2305988 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.8% · actual 19 · 32.9 min · started
VJ Edgecombe Under 5.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −200 · bet_clv:2305987 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 71.0% · unexplained · actual 7 · 33.2 min · started
VJ Edgecombe Under 1.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +190 · bet_clv:2305986 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.7% · unexplained · actual 6 · 33.2 min · started
Jaylon Tyson Over 14.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet −141 · bet_clv:2305984 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.7% · unexplained · actual 11 · 24.0 min · started
Evan Mobley Over 0.5 3PMWIN +0.64ubet −156 · bet_clv:2305983 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.9% · actual 1 · 34.0 min · started
Sam Merrill Under 9.5 PTSWIN +0.59ubet −170 · bet_clv:2305981 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 64.9% · actual 5 · 24.3 min · started
Tyrese Maxey Under 19.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +200 · bet_clv:2305980 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 40.6% · unexplained · actual 32 · 41.6 min · started
Jarrett Allen Under 0.5 STLWIN +1.55ubet +155 · bet_clv:2305979 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 43.7% · actual 0 · 28.2 min · started
Jarrett Allen Under 14.5 PTSWIN +0.59ubet −170 · bet_clv:2305978 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 64.5% · actual 14 · 28.2 min · started
Donovan Mitchell Under 24.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +120 · bet_clv:2305977 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.1% · unexplained · actual 32 · 35.2 min · started
Evan Mobley Under 19.5 PTSWIN +0.50ubet −200 · bet_clv:2305982 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 66.3% · actual 18 · 34.0 min · started
Jaylon Tyson Under 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +140 · bet_clv:2305985 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.8% · unexplained · actual 6 · 24.0 min · started
Data fetches · 28
sds history (h2h)ok · 70 ms
sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 70 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 71 ms
sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 71 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 77 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 80 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 83 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 173 ms
sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 180 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 188 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 191 ms
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 198 ms
odds game timelinefailed 503 · 197 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 212 ms
grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 214 ms
grading verdict/board (price-only)failed 502 · 247 ms
odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 123 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 131 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 150 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 151 ms
odds player timeline (ra)failed 503 · 152 ms
odds player timeline (steals)failed 503 · 169 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 176 ms
odds player timeline (pr)failed 503 · 177 ms
odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 180 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 185 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 204 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 766 ms
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The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.