Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.
Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted
Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
Our picks, raw · 29
Nikola Jokic · U 7.5 assists+210value_edge_pct +57.70 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1
Nikola Jokic · U 9.5 rebounds+182value_edge_pct +29.56 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 5
Jalen Williams · U 3.5 assists+165value_edge_pct +22.81 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6
Christian Braun · U 9.5 points+145value_edge_pct +21.78 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 8
Ajay Mitchell · U 0.5 threes+190value_edge_pct +20.96 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 9
Aaron Gordon · U 4.5 rebounds+185value_edge_pct +20.95 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 10
Jalen Williams · U 3.5 rebounds+185value_edge_pct +17.41 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 13
Christian Braun · O 2.5 assists+188value_edge_pct +13.96 · kelly 1.85u · price_check unchecked · rank 15
Cameron Johnson · O 2.5 assists+174value_edge_pct +13.67 · kelly 1.95u · price_check unchecked · rank 16
Cameron Johnson · U 1.5 assists+175value_edge_pct +11.89 · kelly 1.70u · price_check unchecked · rank 17
Jamal Murray · O 0.5 blocks+160value_edge_pct +10.99 · kelly 1.70u · price_check unchecked · rank 19
Nikola Jokic · O 27.5 points+140value_edge_pct +9.84 · kelly 1.75u · price_check unchecked · rank 21
Isaiah Hartenstein · U 7.5 points+141value_edge_pct +9.73 · kelly 1.70u · price_check unchecked · rank 22
Christian Braun · U 16.5 pra+125value_edge_pct +8.88 · kelly 1.80u · price_check unchecked · rank 24
Christian Braun · O 11.5 points+121value_edge_pct +8.82 · kelly 1.80u · price_check unchecked · rank 25
Nikola Jokic · U 36.5 pa−130value_edge_pct +8.29 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 26
Nikola Jokic · U 26.5 points−130value_edge_pct +7.65 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 27
Nikola Jokic · O 25.5 points+120value_edge_pct +7.63 · kelly 1.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 28
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · O 41.5 pra+111value_edge_pct +7.51 · kelly 1.70u · price_check unchecked · rank 29
Ajay Mitchell · U 14.5 pa+106value_edge_pct +7.05 · kelly 1.65u · price_check unchecked · rank 32
Isaiah Hartenstein · O 7.5 rebounds−108value_edge_pct +5.97 · kelly 1.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 34
Jamal Murray · O 5.5 assists+100value_edge_pct +5.58 · kelly 1.40u · price_check unchecked · rank 35
Cason Wallace · O 11.5 pr−101value_edge_pct +5.31 · kelly 1.35u · price_check unchecked · rank 37
Nikola Jokic · U 49.5 pra−127value_edge_pct +4.16 · kelly 1.30u · price_check unchecked · rank 39
Nikola Jokic · O 0.5 blocks−139value_edge_pct +4.08 · kelly 1.40u · price_check unchecked · rank 41
Nikola Jokic · U 39.5 pr−130value_edge_pct +3.02 · kelly 1.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 42
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · O 0.5 blocks−127value_edge_pct +2.95 · kelly 0.95u · price_check unchecked · rank 43
Jalen Williams · U 19.5 points−135value_edge_pct +2.55 · kelly 0.85u · price_check unchecked · rank 44
Jamal Murray · U 26.5 pr−134value_edge_pct +1.71 · kelly 0.55u · price_check unchecked · rank 45
Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 46
Isaiah Hartenstein Under 9.5 PTSWIN +0.59ubet −170 · bet_clv:2310074 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 64.7% · actual 6 · 22.8 min · started
Jamal Murray Under 26.5 PRWIN +0.75ubet −134 · bet_clv:2310070 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.2% · actual 16 · 36.8 min · started
Nikola Jokic Under 9.5 REBVOID +0.00ubet +182 · bet_clv:2310098 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.9% · actual 0
Nikola Jokic Under 13.5 REBVOID +0.00ubet −160 · bet_clv:2310097 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 68.5% · actual 0
Nikola Jokic Under 11.5 ASTVOID +0.00ubet −355 · bet_clv:2310095 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 76.6% · actual 0
Nikola Jokic Under 7.5 ASTVOID +0.00ubet +210 · bet_clv:2310094 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.9% · actual 0
Aaron Gordon Under 4.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +185 · bet_clv:2310093 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 42.4% · unexplained · actual 6 · 29.5 min · started
DeMar DeRozan Under 3.5 ASTWIN +0.42ubet −240 · bet_clv:2310092 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 71.7% · actual 0 · 28.2 min · started
Ajay Mitchell Under 14.5 PAWIN +1.06ubet +106 · bet_clv:2310090 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 52.0% · actual 12 · 23.0 min · started
Cason Wallace Over 11.5 PRLOSS −1.00ubet −101 · bet_clv:2310089 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.9% · unexplained · actual 10 · 24.0 min · started
Cason Wallace Under 9.5 PTSWIN +0.67ubet −150 · bet_clv:2310088 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 65.1% · actual 9 · 24.0 min · started
Christian Braun Under 9.5 PTSWIN +1.45ubet +145 · bet_clv:2310086 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.7% · actual 7 · 32.6 min · started
Christian Braun Over 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +188 · bet_clv:2310085 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 39.6% · unexplained · actual 1 · 32.6 min · started
Jalen Williams Under 5.5 REBWIN +0.47ubet −215 · bet_clv:2310084 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 69.7% · actual 5 · 33.2 min · started
Jalen Williams Under 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +185 · bet_clv:2310083 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 41.2% · unexplained · actual 5 · 33.2 min · started
Jalen Williams Under 3.5 ASTWIN +1.65ubet +165 · bet_clv:2310082 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.3% · actual 3 · 33.2 min · started
Cameron Johnson Under 14.5 PTSWIN +0.54ubet −185 · bet_clv:2310080 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 67.1% · actual 5 · 11.3 min · bench
Cameron Johnson Under 13.5 PTSWIN +0.69ubet −145 · bet_clv:2310079 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.0% · actual 5 · 11.3 min · bench
Cameron Johnson Over 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +174 · bet_clv:2310077 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 41.5% · unexplained · actual 1 · 11.3 min · bench
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 41.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet +111 · bet_clv:2310076 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · unexplained · actual 22 · 34.6 min · started
Nikola Jokic Under 27.5 PTSVOID +0.00ubet −180 · bet_clv:2308464 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 64.6% · actual 0
Christian Braun Under 16.5 PRAWIN +1.25ubet +125 · bet_clv:2308458 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.4% · actual 14 · 32.6 min · started
Jamal Murray Over 0.5 STLWIN +0.61ubet −163 · bet_clv:2308456 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 64.1% · actual 1 · 36.8 min · started
Jamal Murray Under 23.5 PTSWIN +0.53ubet −190 · bet_clv:2308455 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 65.0% · actual 6 · 36.8 min · started
Jamal Murray Over 5.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +100 · bet_clv:2308453 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.8% · unexplained · actual 3 · 36.8 min · started
Nikola Jokic Under 49.5 PRAVOID +0.00ubet −127 · bet_clv:2306844 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.3% · actual 0
Nikola Jokic Under 39.5 PRVOID +0.00ubet −130 · bet_clv:2306843 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.2% · actual 0
Nikola Jokic Over 25.5 PTSVOID +0.00ubet +120 · bet_clv:2306842 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.9% · actual 0
Nikola Jokic Under 26.5 PTSVOID +0.00ubet −130 · bet_clv:2306841 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.8% · actual 0
Nikola Jokic Over 27.5 PTSVOID +0.00ubet +140 · bet_clv:2306840 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.8% · actual 0
Nikola Jokic Under 36.5 PAVOID +0.00ubet −130 · bet_clv:2306839 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.2% · actual 0
Ajay Mitchell Under 0.5 3PMWIN +1.90ubet +190 · bet_clv:2306837 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 41.7% · actual 0 · 23.0 min · started
Jared McCain Under 2.5 3PMWIN +0.67ubet −150 · bet_clv:2306836 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.1% · actual 0 · 18.1 min · bench
Christian Braun Over 11.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +121 · bet_clv:2306835 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.2% · unexplained · actual 7 · 32.6 min · started
Cameron Johnson Under 1.5 ASTWIN +1.75ubet +175 · bet_clv:2306833 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 40.7% · actual 1 · 11.3 min · bench
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 7.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −108 · bet_clv:2306831 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.0% · unexplained · actual 6 · 22.8 min · started
Jamal Murray Over 0.5 BLKLOSS −1.00ubet +160 · bet_clv:2306828 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 42.7% · unexplained · actual 0 · 36.8 min · started
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 0.5 BLKWIN +0.79ubet −127 · bet_clv:2306832 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.6% · actual 1 · 34.6 min · started
Jamal Murray Under 22.5 PTSWIN +0.68ubet −148 · bet_clv:2306829 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.2% · actual 6 · 36.8 min · started
Nikola Jokic Over 0.5 BLKWIN +0.72ubet −139 · bet_clv:2306838 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.5% · actual 1 · 35.3 min · started
Christian Braun Under 14.5 PTSWIN +0.35ubet −285 · bet_clv:2310087 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 75.1% · actual 7 · 32.6 min · started
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 34.5 PTSWIN +0.47ubet −215 · bet_clv:2310075 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 75.7% · actual 17 · 34.6 min · started
Jalen Williams Under 19.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −135 · bet_clv:2306834 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.9% · unexplained · actual 21 · 33.2 min · started
Chet Holmgren Under 9.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −220 · bet_clv:2310081 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 69.0% · unexplained · actual 17 · 27.9 min · started
Isaiah Hartenstein Under 3.5 ASTWIN +0.42ubet −240 · bet_clv:2310072 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 71.1% · actual 2 · 22.8 min · started
Isaiah Hartenstein Under 7.5 PTSWIN +1.41ubet +141 · bet_clv:2306830 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.5% · actual 6 · 22.8 min · started
Data fetches · 28
sds history (h2h)ok · 154 ms
sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 177 ms
sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 178 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 179 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 179 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 199 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 199 ms
grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 261 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 300 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 318 ms
sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 350 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 353 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 364 ms
grading verdict/board (price-only)failed 502 · 375 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 115 ms
odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 120 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 122 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 137 ms
odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 139 ms
odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 140 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 141 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 146 ms
odds player timeline (blocks)failed 503 · 146 ms
odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 152 ms
odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 153 ms
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 431 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 731 ms
odds game timelineok 200 · 1558 ms