02

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed
0 / 0
Latest publication attempt
unknown
Status observed since

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

R. Rollins · Under 9.5 pointsLostPosted at 5.71 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 5.71

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not price NBA player lines

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 2 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →
T. Herro · Under 14.5 pointsLostPosted at 4.76 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked
J. Giddey · Under 5.5 reboundsWonPosted at 3.15 · last price before start pendingWon +2.15 per 1 staked
K. Kuzma · Under 0.5 3-pointersLostPosted at 3.15 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked
K. Kuzma · Under 9.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.50 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked
C. Wilson · Under 5.5 reboundsLostPosted at 2.46 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked
J. Smith · Over 8.5 reboundsWonPosted at 2.46 · last price before start pendingWon +1.46 per 1 staked
J. Smith · Under 9.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.38 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked
M. Buzelis · Under 15.5 pointsWonPosted at 2.28 · last price before start pendingWon +1.28 per 1 staked
J. Jaquez Jr · Under 25.5 points + rebounds + assistsRefundedPosted at 2.11 · last price before start pendingRefunded +0.00 per 1 staked
J. Giddey · Under 16.5 rebounds + assistsWonPosted at 2.11 · last price before start pendingWon +1.11 per 1 staked
R. Rollins · Over 21.5 points + reboundsLostPosted at 2.09 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked
J. Giddey · Under 9.5 assistsWonPosted at 1.96 · last price before start pendingWon +0.96 per 1 staked
J. Jaquez Jr · Over 14.5 pointsRefundedPosted at 1.91 · last price before start pendingRefunded +0.00 per 1 staked
R. Rollins · Over 4.5 assistsWonPosted at 1.87 · last price before start pendingWon +0.87 per 1 staked
T. Herro · Under 4.5 reboundsLostPosted at 1.83 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked
J. Giddey · Under 14.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.74 · last price before start pendingWon +0.74 per 1 staked
M. Buzelis · Over 1.5 assistsWonPosted at 1.74 · last price before start pendingWon +0.74 per 1 staked
T. Jones · Under 3.5 assistsLostPosted at 2.55 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked
B. Burries · Over 8.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.30 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked
L. Miller · Over 1.5 assistsWonPosted at 2.22 · last price before start pendingWon +1.22 per 1 staked
T. Jones · Under 8.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.15 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked
T. Jones · Under 13.5 points + assistsLostPosted at 2.11 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked

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Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

03

The players

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 35 rostered players. 23 published picks use separate saved records.

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Chicago Bullsplaying MIL

17 players have no line from any bookmaker: Wilson (32 expected minutes) · Giddey (32 min) · +15 more

Milwaukee Bucksplaying CHI

18 players have no line from any bookmaker: Herro (33 expected minutes) · Turner (30 min) · +16 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Sign in to view saved research →Coverage has not been checked in this session. Missing access is not missing data.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

04

What could go wrong

updated
Who is out

Out Claxton · earlier listed as unlisted (changed )

Out Swain · right low back soreness (back) · CHI

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed () · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

For 5 players (Hield, Collins, Essengue, LeVert, Jr.) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. 23 published picks use separate saved records.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Claxton out () · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

05

What happened

One game proves nothing.
Final · 9 of 23 picks won9 won, 12 lost · −1.47 if you had staked 1 on each · 35 lines checked, 12 scored but not picked · checked

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

Sign in to see your predictions checked

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context
Head to head

MIL vs CHI · last 33 games · MIL leads · MIL record 24–9 · average score 115.5–106.7 · MIL has won by 8.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

23 Oct · CHI 132 at MIL 125MIL lost
14 Oct · CHI 125 at MIL 104MIL lost
1 Mar · MIL 97 at CHI 120MIL lost
What each defense gives up per game
CHI gives up129.3 points · 48.2 rebounds · 29.0 assists · 39.3% from three-point range
MIL gives up126.2 points · 46.0 rebounds · 29.7 assists · 34.9% from three-point range
Defense by position
How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CHI gives up 129.3 points a game · 29th of 29 · league average 113.7+15.6 vs average
MIL gives up 126.2 points a game · 27th of 29 · league average 113.7+12.5 vs average
How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 27
Ryan Rollins · U 9.5 points+471value_edge_pct +151.07 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2
Tyler Herro · U 14.5 points+376value_edge_pct +94.77 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 3
Josh Giddey · U 5.5 rebounds+215value_edge_pct +22.13 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 55
Kyle Kuzma · U 9.5 points+150value_edge_pct +20.97 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 61
Kyle Kuzma · U 0.5 threes+215value_edge_pct +19.39 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 74
Tyler Herro · U 19.5 points+205value_edge_pct +17.92 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 84
Tre Jones · U 3.5 assists+155value_edge_pct +15.42 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 103
Caleb Wilson · U 5.5 rebounds+146value_edge_pct +15.32 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 104
Jalen Smith · U 9.5 points+138value_edge_pct +14.74 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 109
Tre Jones · U 13.5 pa+111value_edge_pct +11.79 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 144
Matas Buzelis · U 15.5 points+128value_edge_pct +10.54 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 175
Leonard Miller · O 1.5 assists+122value_edge_pct +9.76 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 192
Jalen Smith · O 8.5 rebounds+146value_edge_pct +9.73 · kelly 1.65u · price_check unchecked · rank 193
Brayden Burries · O 8.5 points+130value_edge_pct +9.57 · kelly 1.85u · price_check unchecked · rank 198
Tre Jones · O 4.5 assists+145value_edge_pct +9.29 · kelly 1.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 208
Leonard Miller · U 1.5 assists−130value_edge_pct +8.55 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 225
Josh Giddey · U 9.5 assists−104value_edge_pct +7.93 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 250
Jaime Jaquez Jr · U 25.5 pra+111value_edge_pct +7.51 · kelly 1.70u · price_check unchecked · rank 270
Josh Giddey · U 16.5 ra+111value_edge_pct +7.51 · kelly 1.70u · price_check unchecked · rank 271
Tyler Herro · U 22.5 points+110value_edge_pct +7.00 · kelly 1.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 293
Tre Jones · U 8.5 points+115value_edge_pct +6.90 · kelly 1.50u · price_check unchecked · rank 303
Ryan Rollins · O 21.5 pr+109value_edge_pct +6.49 · kelly 1.50u · price_check unchecked · rank 312
Jaime Jaquez Jr · O 14.5 points−110value_edge_pct +6.41 · kelly 1.75u · price_check unchecked · rank 314
Tyler Herro · U 4.5 rebounds−120value_edge_pct +5.07 · kelly 1.50u · price_check unchecked · rank 340
Ryan Rollins · O 4.5 assists−115value_edge_pct +4.89 · kelly 1.40u · price_check unchecked · rank 346
Josh Giddey · U 14.5 points−135value_edge_pct +4.10 · kelly 1.40u · price_check unchecked · rank 361
Matas Buzelis · O 1.5 assists−135value_edge_pct +3.87 · kelly 1.30u · price_check unchecked · rank 367
Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 35
Matas Buzelis Over 1.5 3PMLOSS −1.00ubet −147 · bet_clv:2324742 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.7% · unexplained · actual 0 · 17.3 min · bench
Matas Buzelis Over 1.5 ASTWIN +0.74ubet −135 · bet_clv:2324741 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.7% · actual 3 · 17.3 min · bench
Jaime Jaquez Jr Under 25.5 PRAVOID +0.00ubet +111 · bet_clv:2324740 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 0
Ryan Rollins Under 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +471 · bet_clv:2324738 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.0% · unexplained · actual 11 · 33.6 min · started
Ryan Rollins Over 4.5 ASTWIN +0.87ubet −115 · bet_clv:2324737 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.1% · actual 6 · 33.6 min · started
Josh Giddey Under 9.5 ASTWIN +0.96ubet −104 · bet_clv:2324736 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.0% · actual 9 · 24.6 min · started
Tre Jones Under 8.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +115 · bet_clv:2324735 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.7% · unexplained · actual 11 · 24.0 min · started
Tre Jones Under 3.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +155 · bet_clv:2324734 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.3% · unexplained · actual 8 · 24.0 min · started
Tyler Herro Under 19.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +205 · bet_clv:2324732 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 38.7% · unexplained · actual 34 · 31.6 min · started
Tyler Herro Under 22.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +110 · bet_clv:2324729 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · unexplained · actual 34 · 31.6 min · started
Brayden Burries Over 8.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +130 · bet_clv:2317792 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.6% · blowout_foul_trouble · actual 3 · 8.3 min · bench · excused
Caleb Wilson Under 3.5 ASTWIN +0.27ubet −370 · bet_clv:2317791 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 78.0% · actual 1 · 33.2 min · started
Leonard Miller Under 1.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −130 · bet_clv:2317788 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.4% · unexplained · actual 2 · 23.6 min · started
Josh Giddey Under 5.5 REBWIN +2.15ubet +215 · bet_clv:2317787 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 38.8% · actual 4 · 24.6 min · started
Tre Jones Over 4.5 ASTWIN +1.45ubet +145 · bet_clv:2317786 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.6% · actual 8 · 24.0 min · started
Jalen Smith Under 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +138 · bet_clv:2317785 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.2% · unexplained · actual 14 · 24.4 min · started
Tyler Herro Under 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +376 · bet_clv:2317783 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 40.9% · unexplained · actual 34 · 31.6 min · started
Kyle Kuzma Under 0.5 3PMLOSS −1.00ubet +215 · bet_clv:2317782 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 37.9% · unexplained · actual 2 · 29.7 min · started
Matas Buzelis Under 15.5 PTSWIN +1.28ubet +128 · bet_clv:2317790 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.5% · actual 7 · 17.3 min · bench
Myles Turner Under 14.5 PTSWIN +0.34ubet −290 · bet_clv:2310948 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 73.5% · actual 12 · 30.2 min · started
Caleb Wilson Under 5.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +146 · bet_clv:2310963 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.9% · unexplained · actual 6 · 33.2 min · started
Matas Buzelis Under 19.5 PTSWIN +0.43ubet −230 · bet_clv:2310962 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 70.4% · actual 7 · 17.3 min · bench
Jaime Jaquez Jr Over 14.5 PTSVOID +0.00ubet −110 · bet_clv:2310961 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.7% · actual 0
Leonard Miller Over 1.5 ASTWIN +1.22ubet +122 · bet_clv:2310960 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.4% · actual 2 · 23.6 min · started
Ryan Rollins Over 21.5 PRLOSS −1.00ubet +109 · bet_clv:2310959 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · unexplained · actual 18 · 33.6 min · started
Ryan Rollins Under 5.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −154 · bet_clv:2310958 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.6% · unexplained · actual 6 · 33.6 min · started
Josh Giddey Under 16.5 RAWIN +1.11ubet +111 · bet_clv:2310957 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 13 · 24.6 min · started
Josh Giddey Under 14.5 PTSWIN +0.74ubet −135 · bet_clv:2310956 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.8% · actual 6 · 24.6 min · started
Tre Jones Under 13.5 PALOSS −1.00ubet +111 · bet_clv:2310955 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.0% · unexplained · actual 19 · 24.0 min · started
Jalen Smith Over 8.5 REBWIN +1.46ubet +146 · bet_clv:2310954 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.6% · actual 13 · 24.4 min · started
Tyler Herro Under 4.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −120 · bet_clv:2310953 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.3% · unexplained · actual 5 · 31.6 min · started
Tyler Herro Under 24.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −145 · bet_clv:2310952 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.5% · unexplained · actual 34 · 31.6 min · started
Kyle Kuzma Under 14.5 PTSWIN +0.36ubet −275 · bet_clv:2310951 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 75.8% · actual 14 · 29.7 min · started
Kyle Kuzma Under 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +150 · bet_clv:2310950 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.4% · unexplained · actual 14 · 29.7 min · started
Norman Powell Under 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −210 · bet_clv:2310949 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 69.7% · unexplained · actual 4 · 32.5 min · started
Data fetches · 28
sds history (h2h)ok · 12 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 20 ms
sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 20 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 26 ms
sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 26 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 27 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 148 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 149 ms
sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 150 ms
odds game timelinefailed 503 · 148 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 161 ms
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 162 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 163 ms
grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 187 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 314 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 229 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 230 ms
odds player timeline (pa)failed 503 · 225 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 231 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 227 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 228 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 233 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 231 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 234 ms
odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 267 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 584 ms
odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 264 ms
grading verdict/board (price-only)failed 502 · 3208 ms
Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.