02

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed
0 / 0
Latest publication attempt
unknown
Status observed since

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

D. Harper · Under 3.5 reboundsChecking resultPosted at 3.30 · last price before start pendingResult being checked…

Posted at 3.30

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not price NBA player lines

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 2 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →
A. Sengun · Under 7.5 reboundsChecking resultPosted at 3.15 · last price before start pendingResult being checked…
K. Durant · Under 19.5 pointsChecking resultPosted at 3.05 · last price before start pendingResult being checked…
A. Sengun · Under 14.5 pointsChecking resultPosted at 2.85 · last price before start pendingResult being checked…
V. Wembanyama · Under 9.5 reboundsChecking resultPosted at 2.75 · last price before start pendingResult being checked…
D. Fox · Over 3.5 reboundsChecking resultPosted at 2.70 · last price before start pendingResult being checked…
S. Castle · Under 14.5 pointsChecking resultPosted at 2.70 · last price before start pendingResult being checked…
A. Thompson · Under 3.5 assistsChecking resultPosted at 2.65 · last price before start pendingResult being checked…
J. Smith Jr · Over 6.5 reboundsChecking resultPosted at 2.62 · last price before start pendingResult being checked…
D. Harper · Under 3.5 assistsChecking resultPosted at 2.56 · last price before start pendingResult being checked…
D. Harper · Under 14.5 pointsChecking resultPosted at 2.50 · last price before start pendingResult being checked…
F. VanVleet · Under 9.5 pointsWithdrawn: outPosted at 2.50 · last price before start pendingResult being checked…
D. Vassell · Under 9.5 pointsChecking resultPosted at 2.45 · last price before start pendingResult being checked…
D. Fox · Over 4.5 assistsChecking resultPosted at 2.38 · last price before start pendingResult being checked…
K. Durant · Under 8.5 rebounds + assistsChecking resultPosted at 2.30 · last price before start pendingResult being checked…
A. Sengun · Under 13.5 rebounds + assistsChecking resultPosted at 2.25 · last price before start pendingResult being checked…
S. Castle · Under 22.5 points + assistsChecking resultPosted at 2.15 · last price before start pendingResult being checked…
S. Castle · Under 27.5 points + rebounds + assistsChecking resultPosted at 2.15 · last price before start pendingResult being checked…
J. Smith Jr · Over 16.5 points + assistsChecking resultPosted at 2.10 · last price before start pendingResult being checked…
A. Sengun · Over 4.5 assistsChecking resultPosted at 1.93 · last price before start pendingResult being checked…
A. Thompson · Under 16.5 pointsChecking resultPosted at 1.84 · last price before start pendingResult being checked…
T. Eason · Under 3.5 reboundsChecking resultPosted at 3.05 · last price before start pendingResult being checked…
J. Champagnie · Under 3.5 reboundsChecking resultPosted at 2.33 · last price before start pendingResult being checked…
J. Champagnie · Over 6.5 rebounds + assistsChecking resultPosted at 2.25 · last price before start pendingResult being checked…

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Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

03

The players

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 35 rostered players. 24 published picks use separate saved records.

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Houston Rocketsplaying SAS

18 players have no line from any bookmaker: Durant (35 expected minutes) · Sengun (33 min) · +16 more

San Antonio Spursplaying HOU

17 players have no line from any bookmaker: Wembanyama (34 expected minutes) · Fox (32 min) · +15 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Sign in to view saved research →Coverage has not been checked in this session. Missing access is not missing data.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

04

What could go wrong

updated
Who is out

Out VanVleet · right knee injury management (knee) · HOU

Out Phillips · two-way · HOU

Out Copeland · two-way · HOU

Out Sheppard · low back soreness (back) · HOU

Out Adams · right soleus strain · HOU

Out Quaintance · right knee surgery (knee) · SAS

Out Harris · left calf strain (calf) · SAS

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed () · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

For 6 players (Sengun, Jr., Thompson, Fox, Castle, Harper) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. 24 published picks use separate saved records.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

05

What happened

One game proves nothing.
Final24 picks; results are being checked…

Final stats not available yet.

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

Sign in to see your predictions checked

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context
Head to head

SAS vs HOU · last 26 games · SAS leads · SAS record 14–12 · average score 114.1–112.2 · SAS has won by 1.9 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

23 Oct · HOU 114 at SAS 110SAS lost
What each defense gives up per game
HOU gives up108.0 points · 39.3 rebounds · 24.0 assists · 30.0% from three-point range
SAS gives up109.4 points · 43.6 rebounds · 25.4 assists · 36.9% from three-point range
Defense by position
How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

HOU gives up 108.0 points a game · 8th of 29 · league average 113.7−5.7 vs average
SAS gives up 109.4 points a game · 11th of 29 · league average 113.7−4.3 vs average
How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 37
Dylan Harper · U 3.5 rebounds+230value_edge_pct +58.95 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 9
Alperen Sengun · U 7.5 rebounds+215value_edge_pct +49.47 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 14
Victor Wembanyama · U 9.5 rebounds+175value_edge_pct +42.00 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 15
De'Aaron Fox · O 4.5 assists+138value_edge_pct +38.45 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 17
De'Aaron Fox · O 3.5 rebounds+170value_edge_pct +35.54 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 23
Dylan Harper · U 14.5 points+150value_edge_pct +30.70 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 32
Kevin Durant · U 19.5 points+205value_edge_pct +30.10 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 34
Alperen Sengun · U 14.5 points+185value_edge_pct +29.18 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 36
Stephon Castle · U 14.5 points+170value_edge_pct +19.23 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 75
Tari Eason · U 3.5 rebounds+205value_edge_pct +18.16 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 82
Dylan Harper · U 3.5 assists+156value_edge_pct +17.86 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 85
Fred VanVleet · U 9.5 points+150value_edge_pct +17.83 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 86
Stephon Castle · U 22.5 pa+115value_edge_pct +14.40 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 114
Jabari Smith Jr · O 6.5 rebounds+162value_edge_pct +13.75 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 122
Stephon Castle · U 15.5 points+135value_edge_pct +13.29 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 129
Amen Thompson · U 3.5 assists+165value_edge_pct +12.47 · kelly 1.90u · price_check unchecked · rank 138
Julian Champagnie · U 3.5 rebounds+133value_edge_pct +11.94 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 143
Devin Vassell · U 9.5 points+145value_edge_pct +11.75 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 146
Alperen Sengun · U 8.5 rebounds+136value_edge_pct +10.95 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 159
Dylan Harper · U 17.5 points−135value_edge_pct +10.28 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 177
Victor Wembanyama · U 10.5 rebounds+115value_edge_pct +10.10 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 182
Julian Champagnie · O 6.5 ra+125value_edge_pct +10.07 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 184
Devin Vassell · U 10.5 points+119value_edge_pct +9.85 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 191
Stephon Castle · U 27.5 pra+115value_edge_pct +8.90 · kelly 1.95u · price_check unchecked · rank 216
Kevin Durant · U 8.5 ra+130value_edge_pct +8.46 · kelly 1.65u · price_check unchecked · rank 231
Alperen Sengun · U 13.5 ra+125value_edge_pct +8.30 · kelly 1.65u · price_check unchecked · rank 234
Stephon Castle · O 29.5 pra+120value_edge_pct +7.63 · kelly 1.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 260
Amen Thompson · U 16.5 points−119value_edge_pct +7.56 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 267
Alperen Sengun · O 4.5 assists−108value_edge_pct +7.37 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 283
Jabari Smith Jr · O 16.5 pa+110value_edge_pct +7.00 · kelly 1.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 296
Stephon Castle · O 22.5 pa−103value_edge_pct +5.96 · kelly 1.55u · price_check unchecked · rank 321
Jabari Smith Jr · O 1.5 assists+100value_edge_pct +5.92 · kelly 1.50u · price_check unchecked · rank 322
Julian Champagnie · O 4.5 rebounds−115value_edge_pct +5.36 · kelly 1.55u · price_check unchecked · rank 333
Tari Eason · O 4.5 rebounds−113value_edge_pct +4.98 · kelly 1.40u · price_check unchecked · rank 344
Stephon Castle · O 5.5 assists−117value_edge_pct +4.04 · kelly 1.20u · price_check unchecked · rank 362
Fred VanVleet · O 2.5 rebounds−127value_edge_pct +3.96 · kelly 1.25u · price_check unchecked · rank 364
Dylan Harper · O 14.5 points−137value_edge_pct +1.91 · kelly 0.65u · price_check unchecked · rank 379
Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 28
sds history (h2h)ok · 55 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 77 ms
sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 78 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 85 ms
sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 100 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 167 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 180 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 195 ms
grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 189 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 214 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 230 ms
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 263 ms
sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 276 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 277 ms
odds game timelinefailed 503 · 271 ms
grading verdict/board (price-only)failed 502 · 282 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 106 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 118 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 121 ms
odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 129 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 130 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 137 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 138 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 140 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 145 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 155 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 160 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 462 ms
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The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.