NBA · Finalupdated 22:43 UTC

New Orleans Pelicans vs Utah Jazz

at Utah Jazz

No game odds posted yet

NOP 119 – UTA 120

Final · 1 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 1 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

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How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: NOP = New Orleans Pelicans, UTA = Utah Jazz.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

J. Jackson Jr · Over 17.5 pointsWithdrawn: outPosted at 1.93 · last price before start pendingWon +0.93 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.93

Pinnacle 1.85, 16304 min ago

First offered at 1.88 by Pinnacle (Fri 14:28 UTC); latest 1.85 at Pinnacle (Fri 14:59 UTC). The 17.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 0.00 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 36 rostered players. 1 published pick uses separate saved records.

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

New Orleans Pelicansplaying UTA

18 players have no line from any bookmaker: III (35 expected minutes) · Murray (32 min) · +16 more

Utah Jazzplaying NOP

18 players have no line from any bookmaker: Markkanen (34 expected minutes) · Peterson (32 min) · +16 more

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 22:43 UTC

Who is out

Out Murray · personal reasons · NOP

Out J. Pierre Jr. (NOP) · two-way

Out Poole · left ankle tendinopathy (ankle) · NOP

Out Dia · two-way · NOP

Out Missi · left knee contusion/bone bruise (knee) · NOP

Out Ingram · two-way · UTA

Out J. Jackson Jr. (UTA) · right mcltear

Out Nurkić · right2nd plantar plate tear · UTA

Out Alexander · two-way · UTA

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sat 01:30 UTC) · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

For 4 players (Fears, Queen, Filipowski, Mykhailiuk) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. 1 published pick uses separate saved records.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +0.93 if you had staked 1 on each · checked Sat 14:47 UTC

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

UTA vs NOP · last 25 games · UTA leads · UTA record 13–12 · average score 118.4–120.0 · UTA has lost by 1.6 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

23 Oct · NOP 119 at UTA 120UTA won

7 Apr · UTA 137 at NOP 156UTA lost

28 Feb · NOP 115 at UTA 105UTA lost

26 Feb · NOP 129 at UTA 118UTA lost

What each defense gives up per game

NOP gives up120.1 points · 43.1 rebounds · 28.1 assists · 32.7% from three-point range

UTA gives up118.9 points · 45.1 rebounds · 22.7 assists · 37.2% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NOP gives up 120.1 points a game · 25th of 30 · league average 113.5+6.6 vs average

UTA gives up 118.9 points a game · 24th of 30 · league average 113.5+5.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Jaren Jackson Jr · O 17.5 points−107value_edge_pct +0.47 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 8

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Jaren Jackson Jr Over 17.5 PTSWIN +0.93ubet −107 · bet_clv:2327436 · disciplined · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.9% · actual 24 · 33.2 min · started · season_avg 15 · active_status active · historical_min_avg 29.5 · prior_season_games 9 · historical_stat_avg 21.4 · current_season_min_avg 28.1 · recent_vs_baseline_flag hot_streak · minutes_source_confidence diverge_low_confidence

Data fetches · 18

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 124 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 159 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 160 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 176 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 178 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 219 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 298 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 300 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 301 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 302 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 320 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 343 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 361 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 238 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 514 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 1024 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 4567 ms

grading verdict/boardfailed · 6002 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.