02

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Verified pre-tip publication record

These exact IDs were recorded before tip and match the Board and daily Ledger. Outcomes are joined by the same IDs; paper signals remain distinct from recommended stakes.

Publication #25 · · 1 active signals · 4 earlier withdrawn IDs retained in the daily Ledger

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed
0 / 0
Latest publication attempt
unknown
Status observed since

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

G. Antetokounmpo · Under 7.5 reboundsWonPosted at 3.57 · last price before start pendingPublished #2358842Won

Posted at 3.57

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not price NBA player lines

No price history for this line.

Exact published pick #2358842. Recorded model stake: 2 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →
Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

03

The players

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 35 rostered players. 1 published pick uses separate saved records.

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Miami Heatplaying CHA

17 players have no line from any bookmaker: Adebayo (33 expected minutes) · Mitchell (33 min) · +15 more

Charlotte Hornetsplaying MIA

18 players have no line from any bookmaker: Miller (33 expected minutes) · Diabaté (29 min) · +16 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Sign in to view saved research →Coverage has not been checked in this session. Missing access is not missing data.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

04

What could go wrong

updated
Who is out

Out White · earlier listed as unlisted (changed )

Out Williams · earlier listed as unlisted (changed )

Out Knueppel · earlier listed as unlisted (changed )

Out Boswell · earlier listed as available (changed )

Out Ajayi · two-way · CHA

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed () · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

For 5 players (Thompson, Jović, Jr., Steinbach, McNeeley) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Rest

Both teams also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. 1 published pick uses separate saved records.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: White out () · played

Flagged before the game: Williams out () · played

Flagged before the game: Knueppel out () · played

Flagged before the game: Boswell out () · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

05

What happened

One game proves nothing.
Final · 1 of 1 pick wonPublished pick IDs: 1 won, 0 lost; 0 awaiting verified settlement. Positive-stake and paper results are separated in the daily Ledger; no combined unit return is claimed here. · checked

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

Sign in to see your predictions checked

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context
Head to head

CHA vs MIA · last 26 games · MIA leads · CHA record 8–18 · average score 109.2–115.4 · CHA has lost by 6.2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

24 Oct · MIA 110 at CHA 115CHA won
17 Mar · MIA 106 at CHA 136CHA won
6 Mar · MIA 128 at CHA 120CHA lost
What each defense gives up per game
MIA gives up121.5 points · 46.3 rebounds · 28.3 assists · 40.6% from three-point range
CHA gives up106.4 points · 40.9 rebounds · 24.7 assists · 37.6% from three-point range
Defense by position
How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIA gives up 121.5 points a game · 26th of 29 · league average 113.7+7.8 vs average
CHA gives up 106.4 points a game · 5th of 29 · league average 113.7−7.3 vs average
How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1
Giannis Antetokounmpo · U 7.5 rebounds+257value_edge_pct – · kelly 2.00u
Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 50
Andrew Wiggins Under 5.5 REBWIN +0.41ubet −245 · bet_clv:2358843 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 72.0% · actual 1 · 18.4 min · bench
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 7.5 REBWIN +2.57ubet +257 · bet_clv:2358842 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.0% · actual 6 · 24.7 min · started
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 24.5 PTSWIN +1.70ubet +170 · bet_clv:2358841 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 43.1% · actual 14 · 24.7 min · started
Dennis Schroder Under 24.5 PRAVOID +0.00ubet −150 · bet_clv:2358839 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.4% · actual 0
Klay Thompson Over 2.5 REBWIN +1.60ubet +160 · bet_clv:2358835 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 43.1% · actual 3 · 28.7 min · started
Sion James Under 9.5 PTSWIN +0.42ubet −240 · bet_clv:2358834 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 69.5% · actual 0 · 26.0 min · started
Pelle Larsson Over 2.5 ASTWIN +0.83ubet −120 · bet_clv:2358833 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.3% · actual 4 · 36.1 min · started
Brandon Miller Under 0.5 BLKLOSS −1.00ubet −140 · bet_clv:2358829 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.1% · unexplained · actual 1 · 36.2 min · started
Davion Mitchell Over 9.5 RAWIN +1.29ubet +129 · bet_clv:2358825 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.9% · actual 11 · 37.0 min · started
Naz Reid Under 16.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +120 · bet_clv:2358822 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.5% · unexplained · actual 23 · 37.1 min · started
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 9.5 REBWIN +1.55ubet +155 · bet_clv:2354039 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.3% · actual 6 · 24.7 min · started
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 7.5 ASTWIN +0.43ubet −230 · bet_clv:2354038 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 73.1% · actual 3 · 24.7 min · started
Dennis Schroder Over 24.5 PRAVOID +0.00ubet +127 · bet_clv:2354037 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.9% · actual 0
Dennis Schroder Over 5.5 ASTVOID +0.00ubet −113 · bet_clv:2354035 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.9% · actual 0
Dennis Schroder Under 3.5 ASTVOID +0.00ubet +270 · bet_clv:2354034 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 41.2% · actual 0
Brandon Miller Under 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +160 · bet_clv:2354031 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.0% · unexplained · actual 7 · 36.2 min · started
Brandon Miller Under 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +257 · bet_clv:2354028 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 41.2% · unexplained · actual 34 · 36.2 min · started
Brandon Miller Under 1.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +251 · bet_clv:2354027 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 41.8% · unexplained · actual 4 · 36.2 min · started
Moussa Diabate Under 7.5 REBVOID +0.00ubet +153 · bet_clv:2354026 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.4% · actual 0
Naz Reid Under 5.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +186 · bet_clv:2354025 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.9% · unexplained · actual 9 · 37.1 min · started
Naz Reid Under 1.5 ASTWIN +2.39ubet +239 · bet_clv:2354024 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 42.1% · actual 0 · 37.1 min · started
Bam Adebayo Over 1.5 STLLOSS −1.00ubet +127 · bet_clv:2354023 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.1% · unexplained · actual 1 · 38.8 min · started
Bam Adebayo Under 7.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +215 · bet_clv:2354022 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 43.3% · unexplained · actual 8 · 38.8 min · started
Bam Adebayo Under 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +175 · bet_clv:2354021 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.4% · unexplained · actual 20 · 38.8 min · started
Bam Adebayo Over 0.5 BLKWIN +1.38ubet +138 · bet_clv:2354020 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.1% · actual 1 · 38.8 min · started
Dennis Schroder Under 6.5 ASTVOID +0.00ubet −160 · bet_clv:2358838 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 64.2% · actual 0
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 5.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +119 · bet_clv:2347552 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.4% · unexplained · actual 6 · 24.7 min · started
Davion Mitchell Over 19.5 PRAWIN +0.99ubet −101 · bet_clv:2347545 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.9% · actual 33 · 37.0 min · started
Naz Reid Over 3.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +144 · bet_clv:2347542 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.3% · unexplained · actual 0 · 37.1 min · started
Bam Adebayo Over 12.5 RALOSS −1.00ubet −109 · bet_clv:2347541 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.7% · unexplained · actual 12 · 38.8 min · started
Brandon Miller Under 24.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −180 · bet_clv:2347549 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 65.2% · unexplained · actual 34 · 36.2 min · started
Andrew Wiggins Under 6.5 RAWIN +1.02ubet +102 · bet_clv:2342442 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.4% · actual 2 · 18.4 min · bench
Andrew Wiggins Under 14.5 PTSWIN +0.63ubet −160 · bet_clv:2342441 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 64.9% · actual 4 · 18.4 min · bench
Andrew Wiggins Under 12.5 PTSWIN +1.20ubet +120 · bet_clv:2342440 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.9% · actual 4 · 18.4 min · bench
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 16.5 RALOSS −1.00ubet +100 · bet_clv:2342439 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.1% · unexplained · actual 9 · 24.7 min · started
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 24.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −186 · bet_clv:2342438 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 65.1% · unexplained · actual 14 · 24.7 min · started
Dennis Schroder Under 7.5 ASTVOID +0.00ubet −260 · bet_clv:2342437 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 72.1% · actual 0
Klay Thompson Under 3.5 REBWIN +0.23ubet −435 · bet_clv:2342436 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 79.3% · actual 3 · 28.7 min · started
Klay Thompson Under 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +120 · bet_clv:2342435 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.6% · unexplained · actual 14 · 28.7 min · started
Brandon Miller Under 19.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +160 · bet_clv:2342434 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 43.6% · unexplained · actual 34 · 36.2 min · started
Moussa Diabate Under 11.5 REBVOID +0.00ubet −280 · bet_clv:2342433 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 74.0% · actual 0
Moussa Diabate Over 10.5 REBVOID +0.00ubet +148 · bet_clv:2342432 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.0% · actual 0
Moussa Diabate Under 3.5 ASTVOID +0.00ubet −475 · bet_clv:2342431 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 84.4% · actual 0
Davion Mitchell Under 1.5 3PMLOSS −1.00ubet −132 · bet_clv:2342430 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.8% · unexplained · actual 3 · 37.0 min · started
Davion Mitchell Under 3.5 REBWIN +0.48ubet −210 · bet_clv:2342429 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 69.8% · actual 1 · 37.0 min · started
Davion Mitchell Over 16.5 PAWIN +1.02ubet +102 · bet_clv:2342428 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.4% · actual 32 · 37.0 min · started
Davion Mitchell Under 7.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −220 · bet_clv:2342427 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 69.0% · unexplained · actual 10 · 37.0 min · started
Naz Reid Under 9.5 REBWIN +0.36ubet −275 · bet_clv:2342426 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 71.8% · actual 9 · 37.1 min · started
Naz Reid Under 19.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −190 · bet_clv:2342425 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 64.9% · unexplained · actual 23 · 37.1 min · started
Bam Adebayo Under 1.5 3PMLOSS −1.00ubet −120 · bet_clv:2342424 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.3% · unexplained · actual 2 · 38.8 min · started
Data fetches · 19
sds history (h2h)ok · 30 ms
sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 32 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 33 ms
sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 33 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 33 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 34 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 47 ms
grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 104 ms
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 107 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 110 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 113 ms
sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 114 ms
odds game timelinefailed 503 · 116 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 118 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 132 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 94 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 104 ms
grading verdict/board (price-only)failed 502 · 238 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 561 ms
Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.