02

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Verified pre-tip publication record

These exact IDs were recorded before tip and match the Board and daily Ledger. Outcomes are joined by the same IDs; paper signals remain distinct from recommended stakes.

Publication #35 · · 4 active signals · 1 earlier withdrawn IDs retained in the daily Ledger

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed
0 / 0
Latest publication attempt
unknown
Status observed since

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

D. DeRozan · Over 1.5 assistsWonPosted at 2.63 · last price before start pendingPublished #2345839Won

Posted at 2.63

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not price NBA player lines

No price history for this line.

Exact published pick #2345839. Recorded model stake: 2 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →
Z. Williamson · Under 14.5 pointsLostPosted at 3.10 · last price before start pendingPublished #2374200Lost
D. DeRozan · Under 1.5 reboundsLostPosted at 3.60 · last price before start pendingPublished #2378923Lost
J. Fears · Under 1.5 reboundsLostPosted at 3.65 · last price before start pendingPublished #2350976Lost

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Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

03

The players

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 35 rostered players. 4 published picks use separate saved records.

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

New Orleans Pelicansplaying DEN

18 players have no line from any bookmaker: Williamson (32 expected minutes) · Murray (31 min) · +16 more

Denver Nuggetsplaying NOP

17 players have no line from any bookmaker: Murray (36 expected minutes) · Braun (35 min) · +15 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Sign in to view saved research →Coverage has not been checked in this session. Missing access is not missing data.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

04

What could go wrong

updated
Who is out

Out Diallo · earlier listed as unlikely to play (changed ) · 22 min in the last game

C. Johnson (DEN) · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed ) · 34 and 11 min in the last 2 games

Out Strawther · earlier listed as unlisted (changed )

Out S. Jones (DEN) · earlier listed as may not play (changed )

Out Jr. · earlier listed as may not play (changed )

Out Dia · earlier listed as may not play (changed )

Out Missi · earlier listed as unlisted (changed ) · 9 and 30 min in the last 2 games

Out D. Murray (NOP) · personal reasons

Out Poole · left ankle sprain (ankle) · NOP

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed () · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

For 2 players (Jokić, Braun) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Rest

NOP also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. 4 published picks use separate saved records.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Diallo out () · played

Flagged before the game: C. Johnson (DEN) out () · played

Flagged before the game: Strawther out () · played

Flagged before the game: S. Jones (DEN) out () · played

Flagged before the game: Jr. out () · played

Flagged before the game: Dia out () · played

Flagged before the game: Missi out () · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

05

What happened

One game proves nothing.
Final · 1 of 4 picks wonPublished pick IDs: 1 won, 3 lost; 0 awaiting verified settlement. Positive-stake and paper results are separated in the daily Ledger; no combined unit return is claimed here. · checked

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

Sign in to see your predictions checked

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context
Head to head

DEN vs NOP · last 25 games · DEN leads · DEN record 17–8 · average score 116.6–112.9 · DEN has won by 3.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

28 Oct · DEN 104 at NOP 91DEN won
24 Oct · NOP 135 at DEN 141DEN won
What each defense gives up per game
NOP gives up117.8 points · 42.2 rebounds · 27.8 assists · 30.5% from three-point range
DEN gives up115.2 points · 44.8 rebounds · 28.0 assists · 35.0% from three-point range
Defense by position
How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NOP gives up 117.8 points a game · 21st of 29 · league average 113.7+4.1 vs average
DEN gives up 115.2 points a game · 17th of 29 · league average 113.7+1.5 vs average
How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 4
DeMar DeRozan · U 1.5 rebounds+260value_edge_pct – · kelly 2.00u
DeMar DeRozan · O 1.5 assists+163value_edge_pct – · kelly 2.00u
Zion Williamson · U 14.5 points+210value_edge_pct – · kelly 2.00u
Jeremiah Fears · U 1.5 rebounds+265value_edge_pct – · kelly 2.00u
Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 65
Aaron Gordon Under 1.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +194 · bet_clv:2380398 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.6% · unexplained · actual 4 · 36.8 min · started
DeMar DeRozan Over 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +225 · bet_clv:2380396 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 37.0% · unexplained · actual 3 · 23.6 min · started
DeMar DeRozan Under 17.5 PRWIN +1.20ubet +120 · bet_clv:2380395 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.9% · actual 15 · 23.6 min · started
Derik Queen Over 10.5 PTSWIN +0.83ubet −120 · bet_clv:2380393 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.3% · actual 17 · 24.5 min · started
Zion Williamson Under 4.5 REBWIN +1.45ubet +145 · bet_clv:2380389 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.0% · actual 1 · 32.5 min · started
Dejounte Murray Under 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −102 · bet_clv:2380386 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.8% · unexplained · actual 6 · 34.5 min · started
DeMar DeRozan Under 1.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +260 · bet_clv:2378923 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · unexplained · actual 3 · 23.6 min · started
DeMar DeRozan Over 15.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +113 · bet_clv:2378921 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · unexplained · actual 12 · 23.6 min · started
Trey Murphy III Under 1.5 3PMLOSS −1.00ubet +200 · bet_clv:2378911 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.0% · unexplained · actual 4 · 36.9 min · started
DeMar DeRozan Under 19.5 PTSWIN +0.34ubet −290 · bet_clv:2374209 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 76.6% · actual 12 · 23.6 min · started
Zion Williamson Over 0.5 3PMLOSS −1.00ubet +245 · bet_clv:2374201 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 35.5% · unexplained · actual 0 · 32.5 min · started
Zion Williamson Under 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +210 · bet_clv:2374200 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.8% · unexplained · actual 17 · 32.5 min · started
Zion Williamson Under 17.5 PTSWIN +1.28ubet +128 · bet_clv:2374199 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.9% · actual 17 · 32.5 min · started
Nikola Jokic Under 29.5 PTSVOID +0.00ubet −185 · bet_clv:2370862 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 66.0% · actual 0
Derik Queen Under 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −250 · bet_clv:2370852 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 73.5% · unexplained · actual 17 · 24.5 min · started
Christian Braun Under 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +215 · bet_clv:2370849 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 36.8% · unexplained · actual 8 · 40.4 min · started
Jamal Murray Over 2.5 3PMWIN +0.80ubet −125 · bet_clv:2370845 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.7% · actual 8 · 42.9 min · started
Dejounte Murray Under 19.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −220 · bet_clv:2370841 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 70.0% · unexplained · actual 22 · 34.5 min · started
Aaron Gordon Over 16.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +104 · bet_clv:2366434 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 52.0% · unexplained · actual 7 · 36.8 min · started
DeMar DeRozan Under 0.5 3PMWIN +1.36ubet +136 · bet_clv:2366432 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.3% · actual 0 · 23.6 min · started
Nikola Jokic Under 13.5 REBVOID +0.00ubet −130 · bet_clv:2362499 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.9% · actual 0
Nikola Jokic Under 9.5 REBVOID +0.00ubet +239 · bet_clv:2362498 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 41.5% · actual 0
Nikola Jokic Under 24.5 PTSVOID +0.00ubet +135 · bet_clv:2362497 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.8% · actual 0
Nikola Jokic Under 7.5 ASTVOID +0.00ubet +217 · bet_clv:2362495 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.2% · actual 0
Aaron Gordon Under 14.5 PTSWIN +1.50ubet +150 · bet_clv:2362493 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.3% · actual 7 · 36.8 min · started
Aaron Gordon Under 19.5 PTSWIN +0.45ubet −220 · bet_clv:2362492 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 72.0% · actual 7 · 36.8 min · started
Aaron Gordon Under 3.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −240 · bet_clv:2362491 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 71.6% · unexplained · actual 4 · 36.8 min · started
Aaron Gordon Over 2.5 ASTWIN +0.93ubet −108 · bet_clv:2362490 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.3% · actual 4 · 36.8 min · started
Derik Queen Under 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +145 · bet_clv:2362489 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · unexplained · actual 17 · 24.5 min · started
Jeremiah Fears Under 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −180 · bet_clv:2362488 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 68.7% · unexplained · actual 6 · 23.5 min · started
Jeremiah Fears Under 14.5 PTSWIN +0.42ubet −240 · bet_clv:2362486 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 71.2% · actual 10 · 23.5 min · started
Jeremiah Fears Over 1.5 ASTWIN +0.49ubet −203 · bet_clv:2362484 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 67.6% · actual 2 · 23.5 min · started
Christian Braun Under 5.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −185 · bet_clv:2362483 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 66.8% · unexplained · actual 8 · 40.4 min · started
Christian Braun Under 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +215 · bet_clv:2362481 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 42.9% · unexplained · actual 15 · 40.4 min · started
Trey Murphy III Under 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +239 · bet_clv:2362480 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 41.2% · unexplained · actual 26 · 36.9 min · started
Jamal Murray Under 5.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +185 · bet_clv:2362477 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.6% · unexplained · actual 6 · 42.9 min · started
Jamal Murray Over 6.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +102 · bet_clv:2362476 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.2% · unexplained · actual 6 · 42.9 min · started
Dejounte Murray Under 1.5 STLLOSS −1.00ubet −132 · bet_clv:2362475 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.7% · unexplained · actual 2 · 34.5 min · started
Dejounte Murray Under 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +150 · bet_clv:2362474 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.5% · unexplained · actual 22 · 34.5 min · started
Nikola Jokic Over 1.5 STLVOID +0.00ubet +120 · bet_clv:2355254 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.5% · actual 0
Nikola Jokic Over 13.5 REBVOID +0.00ubet +133 · bet_clv:2355253 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.7% · actual 0
Nikola Jokic Over 51.5 PRAVOID +0.00ubet +113 · bet_clv:2355252 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.2% · actual 0
Dejounte Murray Under 23.5 PALOSS −1.00ubet +105 · bet_clv:2355243 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.0% · unexplained · actual 28 · 34.5 min · started
Zion Williamson Under 19.5 PTSWIN +0.67ubet −150 · bet_clv:2362479 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.7% · actual 17 · 32.5 min · started
Aaron Gordon Over 0.5 STLWIN +0.93ubet −108 · bet_clv:2355250 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.8% · actual 2 · 36.8 min · started
DeMar DeRozan Over 3.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +170 · bet_clv:2350977 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 41.7% · unexplained · actual 3 · 23.6 min · started
Jeremiah Fears Under 1.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +265 · bet_clv:2350976 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.3% · unexplained · actual 6 · 23.5 min · started
Trey Murphy III Over 2.5 ASTWIN +0.93ubet −107 · bet_clv:2350972 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.4% · actual 4 · 36.9 min · started
Zion Williamson Over 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −115 · bet_clv:2350970 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.0% · unexplained · actual 2 · 32.5 min · started
Zion Williamson Under 1.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +230 · bet_clv:2350969 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.6% · unexplained · actual 2 · 32.5 min · started
Zion Williamson Under 3.5 ASTWIN +0.33ubet −300 · bet_clv:2350971 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 74.3% · actual 2 · 32.5 min · started
DeMar DeRozan Under 3.5 REBWIN +0.43ubet −233 · bet_clv:2355247 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 72.2% · actual 3 · 23.6 min · started
Jeremiah Fears Over 2.5 REBWIN +0.78ubet −128 · bet_clv:2350975 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.1% · actual 6 · 23.5 min · started
Christian Braun Under 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −200 · bet_clv:2362482 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 66.3% · unexplained · actual 15 · 40.4 min · started
Nikola Jokic Under 11.5 ASTVOID +0.00ubet −200 · bet_clv:2345843 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 67.5% · actual 0
Nikola Jokic Under 9.5 ASTVOID +0.00ubet +140 · bet_clv:2345842 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.4% · actual 0
Aaron Gordon Under 7.5 REBWIN +0.43ubet −235 · bet_clv:2345841 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 72.2% · actual 5 · 36.8 min · started
Aaron Gordon Under 5.5 REBWIN +1.58ubet +158 · bet_clv:2345840 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.9% · actual 5 · 36.8 min · started
DeMar DeRozan Over 1.5 ASTWIN +1.63ubet +163 · bet_clv:2345839 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 68.5% · actual 3 · 23.6 min · started
Jeremiah Fears Under 11.5 PTSWIN +1.30ubet +130 · bet_clv:2345838 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.1% · actual 10 · 23.5 min · started
Christian Braun Over 1.5 ASTWIN +0.90ubet −111 · bet_clv:2345837 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.8% · actual 2 · 40.4 min · started
Trey Murphy III Over 4.5 REBWIN +0.83ubet −120 · bet_clv:2345836 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.3% · actual 6 · 36.9 min · started
Trey Murphy III Under 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +123 · bet_clv:2345835 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.6% · unexplained · actual 26 · 36.9 min · started
Jamal Murray Under 6.5 ASTWIN +1.40ubet +140 · bet_clv:2345833 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.5% · actual 6 · 42.9 min · started
Jamal Murray Under 5.5 REBWIN +0.34ubet −290 · bet_clv:2345834 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 72.6% · actual 3 · 42.9 min · started
Data fetches · 22
sds history (h2h)ok · 16 ms
sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 21 ms
sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 21 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 21 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 22 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 24 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 46 ms
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 112 ms
odds game timelinefailed 503 · 99 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 114 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 116 ms
sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 119 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 121 ms
grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 112 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 116 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 85 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 87 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 86 ms
odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 87 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 98 ms
grading verdict/board (price-only)failed 502 · 245 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 635 ms
Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.