02

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Verified pre-tip publication record

These exact IDs were recorded before tip and match the Board and daily Ledger. Outcomes are joined by the same IDs; paper signals remain distinct from recommended stakes.

Publication #62 · · 2 active signals · 7 earlier withdrawn IDs retained in the daily Ledger

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed
0 / 0
Latest publication attempt
unknown
Status observed since

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

J. Jackson Jr · Under 14.5 pointsRefundedPosted at 2.90 · last price before start pendingPublished #2386244Refunded

Posted at 2.90

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not price NBA player lines

No price history for this line.

Exact published pick #2386244. Recorded model stake: 2 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

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A. Reaves · Under 3.5 assistsLostPosted at 3.57 · last price before start pendingPublished #2386254Lost

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Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

03

The players

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 36 rostered players. 2 published picks use separate saved records.

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Los Angeles Lakersplaying UTA

18 players have no line from any bookmaker: Reaves (35 expected minutes) · Dončić (35 min) · +16 more

Utah Jazzplaying LAL

18 players have no line from any bookmaker: Markkanen (34 expected minutes) · Jr. (32 min) · +16 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Sign in to view saved research →Coverage has not been checked in this session. Missing access is not missing data.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

04

What could go wrong

updated
Who is out

Out Ingram · earlier listed as unlisted (changed )

Out Nurkić · earlier listed as unlisted (changed )

May not play Bufkin · earlier listed as out (changed )

Out Alexander · earlier listed as unlisted (changed )

Out Thiero · earlier listed as unlisted (changed ) · 3, 13 and 6 min in the last 3 games

Carr · earlier listed as out, now available (changed ) · 1 min in the last game

Out Williams · left foot/heel injury management (foot) · LAL

Out Jr. · right mcltear · UTA

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed () · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

For 2 players (Thybulle, Mamukelashvili) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. 2 published picks use separate saved records.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Ingram out () · played

Flagged before the game: Nurkić out () · played

Flagged before the game: Bufkin out () · played

Flagged before the game: Alexander out () · played

Flagged before the game: Thiero out () · played

Flagged before the game: Carr out () · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

05

What happened

One game proves nothing.
Final · 0 of 2 picks wonPublished pick IDs: 0 won, 1 lost; 0 awaiting verified settlement. Positive-stake and paper results are separated in the daily Ledger; no combined unit return is claimed here. · checked

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

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Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context
Head to head

UTA vs LAL · last 24 games · LAL leads · UTA record 7–17 · average score 116.1–119.3 · UTA has lost by 3.2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

25 Oct · LAL 132 at UTA 123UTA lost
12 Apr · UTA 107 at LAL 131UTA lost
What each defense gives up per game
LAL gives up115.0 points · 41.6 rebounds · 27.3 assists · 36.7% from three-point range
UTA gives up118.8 points · 43.8 rebounds · 22.0 assists · 37.6% from three-point range
Defense by position
How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LAL gives up 115.0 points a game · 17th of 29 · league average 113.5about league average
UTA gives up 118.8 points a game · 25th of 29 · league average 113.5+5.3 vs average
How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LAL expected to win by 6.5, expected total 237 () and later LAL expected to win by 6.5, expected total 237.5 ().

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 2
Austin Reaves · U 3.5 assists+257value_edge_pct – · kelly 2.00u
Jaren Jackson Jr · U 14.5 points+190value_edge_pct – · kelly 2.00u
Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 45
Darryn Peterson Over 18.5 PRLOSS −1.00ubet +124 · bet_clv:2392433 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.6% · unexplained · actual 11 · 30.4 min · started
Darryn Peterson Under 9.5 PTSWIN +2.33ubet +233 · bet_clv:2392432 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 39.7% · actual 8 · 30.4 min · started
Darryn Peterson Under 1.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +170 · bet_clv:2392430 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.8% · unexplained · actual 2 · 30.4 min · started
Matisse Thybulle Under 1.5 REBWIN +2.70ubet +270 · bet_clv:2392419 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.0% · actual 1 · 26.0 min · started
Luka Doncic Over 7.5 ASTVOID +0.00ubet −115 · bet_clv:2392415 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.1% · actual 0
Lauri Markkanen Under 1.5 3PMLOSS −1.00ubet +205 · bet_clv:2392412 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 42.5% · unexplained · actual 5 · 37.8 min · started
Lauri Markkanen Over 21.5 PTSWIN +1.12ubet +112 · bet_clv:2392409 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.4% · actual 28 · 37.8 min · started
Lauri Markkanen Under 3.5 ASTWIN +0.22ubet −456 · bet_clv:2392407 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 81.9% · actual 1 · 37.8 min · started
Lauri Markkanen Under 2.5 ASTWIN +0.69ubet −144 · bet_clv:2392406 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.5% · actual 1 · 37.8 min · started
Darryn Peterson Under 0.5 BLKLOSS −1.00ubet −210 · bet_clv:2386266 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 71.2% · unexplained · actual 1 · 30.4 min · started
Ace Bailey Under 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +145 · bet_clv:2386265 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.5% · unexplained · actual 17 · 29.1 min · started
Keyonte George Under 5.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +165 · bet_clv:2386264 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 42.9% · unexplained · actual 10 · 33.3 min · started
Walker Kessler Under 9.5 REBWIN +1.55ubet +155 · bet_clv:2386263 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.5% · actual 7 · 28.4 min · started
Walker Kessler Under 14.5 PTSWIN +1.30ubet +130 · bet_clv:2386262 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.9% · actual 2 · 28.4 min · started
Sandro Mamukelashvili Under 3.5 REBWIN +1.53ubet +153 · bet_clv:2386261 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.9% · actual 3 · 20.9 min · started
Sandro Mamukelashvili Over 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +125 · bet_clv:2386260 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.8% · unexplained · actual 9 · 20.9 min · started
Austin Reaves Under 3.5 REBWIN +1.85ubet +185 · bet_clv:2386258 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.9% · actual 1 · 35.7 min · started
Austin Reaves Under 28.5 PRLOSS −1.00ubet −115 · bet_clv:2386257 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.3% · unexplained · actual 30 · 35.7 min · started
Austin Reaves Under 19.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +190 · bet_clv:2386255 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.7% · unexplained · actual 29 · 35.7 min · started
Austin Reaves Under 3.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +257 · bet_clv:2386254 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.9% · unexplained · actual 4 · 35.7 min · started
Ziaire Williams Under 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −165 · bet_clv:2386253 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 64.2% · unexplained · actual 11 · 30.1 min · started
Matisse Thybulle Under 1.5 3PMLOSS −1.00ubet −150 · bet_clv:2386252 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.7% · unexplained · actual 3 · 26.0 min · started
Matisse Thybulle Under 1.5 STLLOSS −1.00ubet +115 · bet_clv:2386251 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · unexplained · actual 3 · 26.0 min · started
Matisse Thybulle Under 4.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +150 · bet_clv:2386249 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.7% · unexplained · actual 11 · 26.0 min · started
Quentin Grimes Under 3.5 ASTWIN +0.45ubet −220 · bet_clv:2386248 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 71.4% · actual 1 · 20.3 min · started
Jaren Jackson Jr Under 14.5 PTSVOID +0.00ubet +190 · bet_clv:2386244 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.2% · actual 0
Lauri Markkanen Under 5.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +165 · bet_clv:2386243 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.4% · unexplained · actual 6 · 37.8 min · started
Lauri Markkanen Under 0.5 BLKWIN +0.62ubet −162 · bet_clv:2386240 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 63.3% · actual 0 · 37.8 min · started
Austin Reaves Under 5.5 REBWIN +0.47ubet −215 · bet_clv:2386259 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 70.1% · actual 1 · 35.7 min · started
Austin Reaves Under 24.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −150 · bet_clv:2386256 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.5% · unexplained · actual 29 · 35.7 min · started
Darryn Peterson Under 5.5 REBWIN +0.36ubet −280 · bet_clv:2382100 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 75.2% · actual 3 · 30.4 min · started
Darryn Peterson Under 3.5 REBWIN +1.50ubet +150 · bet_clv:2382099 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.5% · actual 3 · 30.4 min · started
Ace Bailey Over 4.5 REBWIN +1.70ubet +170 · bet_clv:2382098 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 41.8% · actual 12 · 29.1 min · started
Keyonte George Under 7.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −210 · bet_clv:2382097 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 68.7% · unexplained · actual 10 · 33.3 min · started
Matisse Thybulle Under 3.5 REBWIN +0.40ubet −250 · bet_clv:2382096 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 71.2% · actual 1 · 26.0 min · started
Matisse Thybulle Under 5.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +125 · bet_clv:2382095 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.5% · unexplained · actual 11 · 26.0 min · started
Jaxson Hayes Under 6.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +130 · bet_clv:2382094 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.2% · unexplained · actual 9 · 19.0 min · bench
Jaxson Hayes Under 9.5 PTSWIN +0.47ubet −215 · bet_clv:2382093 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 70.0% · actual 9 · 19.0 min · bench
Luka Doncic Under 34.5 PTSVOID +0.00ubet −160 · bet_clv:2382092 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 64.3% · actual 0
Luka Doncic Under 29.5 PTSVOID +0.00ubet +150 · bet_clv:2382091 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.2% · actual 0
Jaren Jackson Jr Under 8.5 RAVOID +0.00ubet +109 · bet_clv:2382090 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 0
Jaren Jackson Jr Under 19.5 PTSVOID +0.00ubet −180 · bet_clv:2382089 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 64.6% · actual 0
Jaren Jackson Jr Under 3.5 ASTVOID +0.00ubet −570 · bet_clv:2382088 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 82.5% · actual 0
Lauri Markkanen Under 24.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −160 · bet_clv:2382087 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.6% · unexplained · actual 28 · 37.8 min · started
Lauri Markkanen Under 19.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +180 · bet_clv:2382086 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 41.8% · unexplained · actual 28 · 37.8 min · started
Data fetches · 20
sds history (h2h)ok · 64 ms
sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 79 ms
sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 79 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 79 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 80 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 81 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 82 ms
grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 124 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 148 ms
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 148 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 162 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 154 ms
sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 156 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 165 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 86 ms
odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 87 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 95 ms
grading verdict/board (price-only)failed 502 · 256 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 542 ms
odds game timelineok 200 · 1536 ms
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The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.