02

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Verified pre-tip publication record

These exact IDs were recorded before tip and match the Board and daily Ledger. Outcomes are joined by the same IDs; paper signals remain distinct from recommended stakes.

Publication #70 · · 2 active signals · 7 earlier withdrawn IDs retained in the daily Ledger

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed
0 / 0
Latest publication attempt
unknown
Status observed since

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

Z. LaVine · Under 1.5 assistsLostPosted at 4.90 · last price before start pendingPublished #2397106Lost

Posted at 4.90

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not price NBA player lines

No price history for this line.

Exact published pick #2397106. Recorded model stake: 2 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →
D. Acuff Jr. · Under 1.5 reboundsLostPosted at 4.40 · last price before start pendingPublished #2402087Lost

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Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

03

The players

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 37 rostered players. 2 published picks use separate saved records.

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Memphis Grizzliesplaying SAC

20 players have no line from any bookmaker: Boozer (35 expected minutes) · Jerome (32 min) · +18 more

Sacramento Kingsplaying MEM

17 players have no line from any bookmaker: LaVine (37 expected minutes) · Jr. (36 min) · +15 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Sign in to view saved research →Coverage has not been checked in this session. Missing access is not missing data.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

04

What could go wrong

updated
Who is out

Out Simmons · earlier listed as unlisted (changed ) · 5, 7 and 9 min in the last 3 games

Cardwell · earlier listed as may not play, now likely to play (changed ) · 21, 24 and 26 min in the last 3 games

Out K. Murray (SAC) · earlier listed as unlikely to play (changed ) · 26, 28 and 9 min in the last 3 games

Out Raynaud · earlier listed as unlisted (changed ) · 37, 39 and 26 min in the last 3 games

Out Pedulla · earlier listed as unlisted (changed ) · 2, 3 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Small · earlier listed as out, now available (changed ) · 26, 27 and 25 min in the last 3 games

López · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed ) · 4 and 3 min in the last 2 games

Edey · earlier listed as out, now available (changed ) · 22, 21 and 22 min in the last 3 games

May not play Post · right ankle sprain (ankle) · MEM

Unlikely to play S. Pippen Jr. (MEM) · low back soreness (back)

May not play LaVine · right elbow inflammation/soreness (elbow) · SAC

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed () · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

For 2 players (Monk, Sharp) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. 2 published picks use separate saved records.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Simmons out () · played

Flagged before the game: Cardwell out () · played

Flagged before the game: K. Murray (SAC) out () · played

Flagged before the game: Raynaud out () · played

Flagged before the game: Pedulla out () · played

Flagged before the game: Small out () · played

Flagged before the game: López out () · played

Flagged before the game: Edey out () · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

05

What happened

One game proves nothing.
Final · 0 of 2 picks wonPublished pick IDs: 0 won, 2 lost; 0 awaiting verified settlement. Positive-stake and paper results are separated in the daily Ledger; no combined unit return is claimed here. · checked

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

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Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context
Head to head

SAC vs MEM · last 25 games · MEM leads · SAC record 9–16 · average score 110.4–114.8 · SAC has lost by 4.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

31 Oct · SAC 105 at MEM 136SAC lost
25 Oct · MEM 123 at SAC 112SAC lost
23 Feb · SAC 123 at MEM 114SAC won
4 Feb · MEM 129 at SAC 125SAC lost
What each defense gives up per game
MEM gives up106.0 points · 41.7 rebounds · 23.3 assists · 30.0% from three-point range
SAC gives up128.3 points · 46.2 rebounds · 30.0 assists · 39.2% from three-point range
Defense by position
How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MEM gives up 106.0 points a game · 3rd of 29 · league average 113.5−7.5 vs average
SAC gives up 128.3 points a game · 28th of 29 · league average 113.5+14.8 vs average
How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 2
Zach LaVine · U 1.5 assists+390value_edge_pct – · kelly 2.00u
Darius Acuff Jr. · U 1.5 rebounds+340value_edge_pct – · kelly 2.00u
Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 61
Darius Acuff Jr. Under 1.5 3PMLOSS −1.00ubet +175 · bet_clv:2408250 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.5% · unexplained · actual 2 · 36.3 min · started
Darius Acuff Jr. Under 29.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet −125 · bet_clv:2408247 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.4% · unexplained · actual 32 · 36.3 min · started
Precious Achiuwa Over 7.5 REBWIN +1.38ubet +138 · bet_clv:2408236 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.9% · actual 10 · 38.9 min · started
De'Andre Hunter Under 14.5 PTSWIN +0.36ubet −275 · bet_clv:2408229 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 71.8% · actual 7 · 29.3 min · started
Domantas Sabonis Under 19.5 RAWIN +1.50ubet +150 · bet_clv:2408225 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.3% · actual 18 · 34.6 min · started
Domantas Sabonis Under 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +103 · bet_clv:2408223 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.8% · unexplained · actual 15 · 34.6 min · started
Jaylen Wells Under 1.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +310 · bet_clv:2403726 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 35.8% · unexplained · actual 5 · 32.8 min · started
Ty Jerome Under 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +344 · bet_clv:2403719 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 35.5% · unexplained · actual 31 · 32.0 min · started
Darius Acuff Jr. Under 1.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +340 · bet_clv:2402087 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.4% · unexplained · actual 3 · 36.3 min · started
Darius Acuff Jr. Under 3.5 REBWIN +0.67ubet −150 · bet_clv:2402086 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.3% · actual 3 · 36.3 min · started
Darius Acuff Jr. Over 27.5 PRAWIN +0.67ubet −150 · bet_clv:2402085 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.8% · actual 32 · 36.3 min · started
Jaylen Wells Under 10.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +119 · bet_clv:2402077 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.9% · unexplained · actual 16 · 32.8 min · started
Precious Achiuwa Under 5.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +215 · bet_clv:2402074 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.2% · unexplained · actual 10 · 38.9 min · started
Ty Jerome Under 29.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −506 · bet_clv:2402073 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 79.3% · unexplained · actual 31 · 32.0 min · started
Domantas Sabonis Over 38.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet −114 · bet_clv:2402064 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.3% · unexplained · actual 33 · 34.6 min · started
Zach LaVine Under 1.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +390 · bet_clv:2397106 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.4% · unexplained · actual 5 · 40.2 min · started
Cameron Boozer Under 7.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +200 · bet_clv:2397102 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 40.5% · unexplained · actual 11 · 31.4 min · started
Cameron Boozer Over 13.5 RAWIN +1.15ubet +115 · bet_clv:2397101 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.0% · actual 15 · 31.4 min · started
De'Andre Hunter Under 5.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −260 · bet_clv:2397092 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 75.0% · unexplained · actual 6 · 29.3 min · started
Domantas Sabonis Under 24.5 PAWIN +1.05ubet +105 · bet_clv:2397086 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.0% · actual 18 · 34.6 min · started
Domantas Sabonis Over 7.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +245 · bet_clv:2397085 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 41.9% · unexplained · actual 3 · 34.6 min · started
Cameron Boozer Under 22.5 PAWIN +0.75ubet −134 · bet_clv:2397099 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 63.2% · actual 20 · 31.4 min · started
Zach LaVine Under 23.5 PRLOSS −1.00ubet +115 · bet_clv:2392136 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.2% · unexplained · actual 39 · 40.2 min · started
Jaylen Wells Over 3.5 REBWIN +1.86ubet +186 · bet_clv:2392127 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 40.0% · actual 5 · 32.8 min · started
De'Andre Hunter Under 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +155 · bet_clv:2392122 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.1% · unexplained · actual 6 · 29.3 min · started
Domantas Sabonis Under 17.5 PTSWIN +1.05ubet +105 · bet_clv:2392118 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.6% · actual 15 · 34.6 min · started
Domantas Sabonis Under 7.5 ASTWIN +0.65ubet −153 · bet_clv:2392117 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.5% · actual 3 · 34.6 min · started
Jerami Grant Under 14.5 PTSWIN +0.42ubet −240 · bet_clv:2389469 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 70.8% · actual 5 · 22.4 min · started
Jerami Grant Under 9.5 PTSWIN +1.75ubet +175 · bet_clv:2389468 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.4% · actual 5 · 22.4 min · started
Zach LaVine Under 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +203 · bet_clv:2389467 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 43.9% · unexplained · actual 37 · 40.2 min · started
Zach LaVine Under 24.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −260 · bet_clv:2389466 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 72.4% · unexplained · actual 37 · 40.2 min · started
Darius Acuff Jr. Under 22.5 PRLOSS −1.00ubet +110 · bet_clv:2389465 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · unexplained · actual 25 · 36.3 min · started
Darius Acuff Jr. Under 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +182 · bet_clv:2389464 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.3% · unexplained · actual 22 · 36.3 min · started
Cameron Boozer Under 5.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +300 · bet_clv:2389462 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 40.4% · unexplained · actual 11 · 31.4 min · started
Cameron Boozer Over 26.5 PRWIN +1.07ubet +107 · bet_clv:2389461 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.9% · actual 27 · 31.4 min · started
Cameron Boozer Under 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +122 · bet_clv:2389460 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.5% · unexplained · actual 16 · 31.4 min · started
Cameron Boozer Under 3.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +113 · bet_clv:2389459 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.6% · unexplained · actual 4 · 31.4 min · started
Jaylen Wells Under 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −290 · bet_clv:2389457 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 73.8% · unexplained · actual 16 · 32.8 min · started
Jaylen Wells Under 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +145 · bet_clv:2389456 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.5% · unexplained · actual 16 · 32.8 min · started
Keegan Murray Under 9.5 PTSVOID +0.00ubet +175 · bet_clv:2389455 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 43.8% · actual 0
Ty Jerome Under 24.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −145 · bet_clv:2389454 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.2% · unexplained · actual 31 · 32.0 min · started
Ty Jerome Under 19.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +200 · bet_clv:2389453 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.7% · unexplained · actual 31 · 32.0 min · started
Domantas Sabonis Under 11.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +153 · bet_clv:2389449 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.1% · unexplained · actual 15 · 34.6 min · started
Domantas Sabonis Under 15.5 REBWIN +0.54ubet −185 · bet_clv:2389448 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 72.1% · actual 15 · 34.6 min · started
Domantas Sabonis Under 9.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +300 · bet_clv:2389447 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 37.8% · unexplained · actual 15 · 34.6 min · started
Domantas Sabonis Under 31.5 PRWIN +1.15ubet +115 · bet_clv:2389446 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 30 · 34.6 min · started
Domantas Sabonis Under 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +210 · bet_clv:2389445 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.4% · unexplained · actual 15 · 34.6 min · started
Domantas Sabonis Under 5.5 ASTWIN +1.85ubet +185 · bet_clv:2389443 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.3% · actual 3 · 34.6 min · started
De'Andre Hunter Under 3.5 ASTWIN +0.23ubet −430 · bet_clv:2397090 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 79.5% · actual 1 · 29.3 min · started
Zach LaVine Under 19.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +123 · bet_clv:2384992 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · unexplained · actual 37 · 40.2 min · started
Zach LaVine Under 3.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −220 · bet_clv:2384991 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 69.0% · unexplained · actual 5 · 40.2 min · started
Darius Acuff Jr. Under 5.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −240 · bet_clv:2384990 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 72.3% · unexplained · actual 7 · 36.3 min · started
Darius Acuff Jr. Under 3.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +168 · bet_clv:2384989 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.7% · unexplained · actual 7 · 36.3 min · started
Cameron Boozer Under 5.5 ASTWIN +0.38ubet −265 · bet_clv:2384988 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 72.0% · actual 4 · 31.4 min · started
Cedric Coward Over 3.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +212 · bet_clv:2384987 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.6% · unexplained · actual 2 · 32.1 min · started
Jaylen Wells Under 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −170 · bet_clv:2384986 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 64.4% · unexplained · actual 5 · 32.8 min · started
Ty Jerome Under 7.5 ASTWIN +0.43ubet −235 · bet_clv:2384985 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 70.7% · actual 6 · 32.0 min · started
Ty Jerome Under 5.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +160 · bet_clv:2384984 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.2% · unexplained · actual 6 · 32.0 min · started
De'Andre Hunter Under 9.5 PTSWIN +1.24ubet +124 · bet_clv:2384983 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 7 · 29.3 min · started
De'Andre Hunter Over 1.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −138 · bet_clv:2384982 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.4% · unexplained · actual 1 · 29.3 min · started
Domantas Sabonis Under 19.5 PTSWIN +0.71ubet −140 · bet_clv:2384981 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.0% · actual 15 · 34.6 min · started
Data fetches · 20
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 4 ms
sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 27 ms
sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 27 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 28 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 28 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 29 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 107 ms
odds game timelinefailed 503 · 123 ms
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 126 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 137 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 157 ms
sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 159 ms
sds history (h2h)ok · 161 ms
grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 164 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 168 ms
grading verdict/board (price-only)failed 502 · 223 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 94 ms
odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 338 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 342 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 547 ms
Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.