02

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Verified pre-tip publication record

These exact IDs were recorded before tip and match the Board and daily Ledger. Outcomes are joined by the same IDs; paper signals remain distinct from recommended stakes.

Publication #99 · · 2 active signals · 4 earlier withdrawn IDs retained in the daily Ledger

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed
0 / 0
Latest publication attempt
unknown
Status observed since

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

K. Irving · Under 1.5 assistsLostPosted at 5.00 · last price before start pendingPublished #2444511Lost

Posted at 5.00

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not price NBA player lines

No price history for this line.

Exact published pick #2444511. Recorded model stake: 2 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →
A. Wiggins · Under 1.5 reboundsLostPosted at 5.00 · last price before start pendingPublished #2425850Lost

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Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

03

The players

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 35 rostered players. 2 published picks use separate saved records.

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Dallas Mavericksplaying MIA

18 players have no line from any bookmaker: Washington (33 expected minutes) · Christie (31 min) · +16 more

Miami Heatplaying DAL

17 players have no line from any bookmaker: Adebayo (33 expected minutes) · Mitchell (33 min) · +15 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Sign in to view saved research →Coverage has not been checked in this session. Missing access is not missing data.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

04

What could go wrong

updated
Who is out

Martin · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed ) · 25 and 14 min in the last 2 games

Out II · earlier listed as unlisted (changed )

Marshall · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed ) · 21, 33 and 29 min in the last 3 games

Unlikely to play Aldama · earlier listed as out (changed )

Out Biberović · earlier listed as unlikely to play (changed )

Unlikely to play Irving · left knee injury management (knee) · DAL

Out Larrea · right knee sprain (knee) · DAL

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed () · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

For 5 players (Irving, Flagg, Adebayo, Antetokounmpo, Mitchell) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. 2 published picks use separate saved records.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Martin out () · played

Flagged before the game: II out () · played

Flagged before the game: Marshall out () · played

Flagged before the game: Aldama out () · played

Flagged before the game: Biberović out () · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

05

What happened

One game proves nothing.
Final · 0 of 2 picks wonPublished pick IDs: 0 won, 2 lost; 0 awaiting verified settlement. Positive-stake and paper results are separated in the daily Ledger; no combined unit return is claimed here. · checked

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

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Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context
Head to head

MIA vs DAL · last 15 games · DAL leads · MIA record 6–9 · average score 103.4–107.7 · MIA has lost by 4.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

26 Oct · DAL 113 at MIA 109MIA lost
What each defense gives up per game
DAL gives up111.8 points · 43.5 rebounds · 27.0 assists · 29.7% from three-point range
MIA gives up121.5 points · 46.3 rebounds · 28.3 assists · 40.6% from three-point range
Defense by position
How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

DAL gives up 111.8 points a game · 14th of 29 · league average 113.5−1.7 vs average
MIA gives up 121.5 points a game · 26th of 29 · league average 113.5+8.0 vs average
How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 2
Kyrie Irving · U 1.5 assists+400value_edge_pct – · kelly 2.00u
Andrew Wiggins · U 1.5 rebounds+400value_edge_pct – · kelly 2.00u
Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 65
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 49.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet −150 · bet_clv:2444518 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.5% · unexplained · actual 55 · 39.0 min · started
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 3.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +285 · bet_clv:2444516 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 40.3% · unexplained · actual 11 · 39.0 min · started
Kyrie Irving Under 29.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet −122 · bet_clv:2444514 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.3% · unexplained · actual 30 · 32.7 min · started
Kyrie Irving Under 1.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +400 · bet_clv:2444511 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.8% · unexplained · actual 6 · 32.7 min · started
Zaccharie Risacher Over 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +113 · bet_clv:2444510 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.8% · unexplained · actual 6 · 29.7 min · started
Pelle Larsson Under 3.5 REBWIN +0.82ubet −122 · bet_clv:2444509 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.2% · actual 0 · 33.5 min · started
Daniel Gafford Over 1.5 ASTWIN +1.09ubet +109 · bet_clv:2444505 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.9% · actual 3 · 25.6 min · started
P.J. Washington Over 1.5 ASTWIN +0.79ubet −126 · bet_clv:2444503 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.3% · actual 2 · 40.6 min · started
Daniel Gafford Under 9.5 PTSWIN +0.79ubet −127 · bet_clv:2439424 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.4% · actual 8 · 25.6 min · started
Andrew Wiggins Under 6.5 RAWIN +0.81ubet −124 · bet_clv:2432512 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.7% · actual 4 · 34.0 min · started
Klay Thompson Under 3.5 REBWIN +0.26ubet −380 · bet_clv:2432509 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 78.3% · actual 1 · 15.5 min · bench
Kyrie Irving Under 22.5 PTSWIN +0.59ubet −170 · bet_clv:2432507 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 66.0% · actual 18 · 32.7 min · started
Zaccharie Risacher Under 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +185 · bet_clv:2432503 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 43.0% · unexplained · actual 9 · 29.7 min · started
Zaccharie Risacher Under 10.5 PTSWIN +0.85ubet −118 · bet_clv:2432502 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.9% · actual 6 · 29.7 min · started
Andrew Wiggins Under 1.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +400 · bet_clv:2425850 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 41.2% · unexplained · actual 3 · 34.0 min · started
Andrew Wiggins Under 15.5 PRWIN +1.40ubet +140 · bet_clv:2425849 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.5% · actual 15 · 34.0 min · started
Andrew Wiggins Under 0.5 BLKLOSS −1.00ubet +160 · bet_clv:2425848 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.3% · unexplained · actual 1 · 34.0 min · started
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 24.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +186 · bet_clv:2425847 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 42.7% · unexplained · actual 29 · 39.0 min · started
Zaccharie Risacher Under 5.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −220 · bet_clv:2425842 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 69.6% · unexplained · actual 9 · 29.7 min · started
Max Christie Under 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +175 · bet_clv:2425840 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.4% · unexplained · actual 11 · 25.8 min · started
Max Christie Under 1.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +200 · bet_clv:2425838 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 39.0% · unexplained · actual 3 · 25.8 min · started
Max Christie Over 2.5 ASTWIN +1.52ubet +152 · bet_clv:2425837 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.8% · actual 3 · 25.8 min · started
Bobby Portis Under 3.5 REBVOID +0.00ubet +264 · bet_clv:2425832 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 42.0% · actual 0
Bobby Portis Under 9.5 PTSVOID +0.00ubet +145 · bet_clv:2425831 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.8% · actual 0
Andrew Wiggins Under 14.5 PTSWIN +0.43ubet −230 · bet_clv:2418628 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 71.8% · actual 12 · 34.0 min · started
Andrew Wiggins Over 0.5 BLKWIN +0.67ubet −150 · bet_clv:2418626 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.7% · actual 1 · 34.0 min · started
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 9.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +205 · bet_clv:2418625 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 41.9% · unexplained · actual 15 · 39.0 min · started
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 0.5 BLKLOSS −1.00ubet +155 · bet_clv:2418623 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.6% · unexplained · actual 1 · 39.0 min · started
Klay Thompson Under 1.5 REBWIN +2.05ubet +205 · bet_clv:2418621 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.4% · actual 1 · 15.5 min · bench
Kyrie Irving Under 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +264 · bet_clv:2418620 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 42.8% · unexplained · actual 18 · 32.7 min · started
Cooper Flagg Under 19.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +160 · bet_clv:2418619 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.0% · unexplained · actual 29 · 39.7 min · started
Pelle Larsson Over 0.5 3PMWIN +0.60ubet −167 · bet_clv:2418618 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 63.7% · actual 1 · 33.5 min · started
Pelle Larsson Under 1.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +228 · bet_clv:2418617 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 42.8% · unexplained · actual 4 · 33.5 min · started
Davion Mitchell Over 7.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +144 · bet_clv:2418616 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.0% · unexplained · actual 2 · 33.4 min · started
P.J. Washington Under 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +203 · bet_clv:2418615 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.7% · unexplained · actual 20 · 40.6 min · started
Bam Adebayo Under 7.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +163 · bet_clv:2418614 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.0% · unexplained · actual 8 · 30.4 min · started
Bam Adebayo Under 19.5 PTSWIN +0.67ubet −150 · bet_clv:2418612 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.1% · actual 8 · 30.4 min · started
Bobby Portis Under 1.5 3PMVOID +0.00ubet −120 · bet_clv:2418611 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.3% · actual 0
Bobby Portis Under 5.5 REBVOID +0.00ubet +130 · bet_clv:2418610 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.5% · actual 0
Bobby Portis Under 7.5 REBVOID +0.00ubet −245 · bet_clv:2418609 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 73.3% · actual 0
Kyrie Irving Over 0.5 STLWIN +0.64ubet −156 · bet_clv:2425845 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.9% · actual 2 · 32.7 min · started
Davion Mitchell Over 11.5 PTSWIN +1.28ubet +128 · bet_clv:2444506 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.0% · actual 21 · 33.4 min · started
Max Christie Under 14.5 PTSWIN +0.42ubet −240 · bet_clv:2425839 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 70.3% · actual 11 · 25.8 min · started
Andrew Wiggins Under 5.5 REBWIN +0.33ubet −300 · bet_clv:2411706 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 75.3% · actual 3 · 34.0 min · started
Andrew Wiggins Under 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +165 · bet_clv:2411705 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 43.8% · unexplained · actual 12 · 34.0 min · started
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 13.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −260 · bet_clv:2411704 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 73.5% · unexplained · actual 15 · 39.0 min · started
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 34.5 PTSWIN +0.47ubet −215 · bet_clv:2411703 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 72.8% · actual 29 · 39.0 min · started
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 0.5 BLKWIN +0.72ubet −138 · bet_clv:2411702 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.0% · actual 1 · 39.0 min · started
Tim Hardaway Jr. Under 9.5 PTSWIN +0.59ubet −170 · bet_clv:2411701 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 63.9% · actual 5 · 15.6 min · bench
Kyrie Irving Over 26.5 PRLOSS −1.00ubet +115 · bet_clv:2411700 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.9% · unexplained · actual 24 · 32.7 min · started
Kyrie Irving Under 19.5 PTSWIN +1.65ubet +165 · bet_clv:2411699 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 43.6% · actual 18 · 32.7 min · started
Kyrie Irving Under 24.5 PTSWIN +0.59ubet −170 · bet_clv:2411698 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 64.3% · actual 18 · 32.7 min · started
Kyrie Irving Under 21.5 PTSWIN +1.10ubet +110 · bet_clv:2411697 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.9% · actual 18 · 32.7 min · started
Kyrie Irving Over 4.5 ASTWIN +1.30ubet +130 · bet_clv:2411695 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.7% · actual 6 · 32.7 min · started
Kyrie Irving Under 5.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −275 · bet_clv:2411694 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 69.6% · unexplained · actual 6 · 32.7 min · started
Cooper Flagg Over 5.5 REBWIN +0.96ubet −104 · bet_clv:2411693 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.4% · actual 6 · 39.7 min · started
Cooper Flagg Over 21.5 PTSWIN +1.70ubet +170 · bet_clv:2411692 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.7% · actual 29 · 39.7 min · started
Cooper Flagg Over 5.5 ASTWIN +1.56ubet +156 · bet_clv:2411691 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.3% · actual 11 · 39.7 min · started
Davion Mitchell Under 3.5 REBWIN +0.27ubet −375 · bet_clv:2411690 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 75.9% · actual 0 · 33.4 min · started
Davion Mitchell Under 1.5 REBWIN +2.10ubet +210 · bet_clv:2411689 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.2% · actual 0 · 33.4 min · started
Daniel Gafford Over 7.5 REBWIN +1.15ubet +115 · bet_clv:2411688 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.0% · actual 8 · 25.6 min · started
Kyrie Irving Over 26.5 PALOSS −1.00ubet +100 · bet_clv:2411696 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.9% · unexplained · actual 24 · 32.7 min · started
P.J. Washington Under 6.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +132 · bet_clv:2411687 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.9% · unexplained · actual 9 · 40.6 min · started
Bam Adebayo Under 11.5 REBWIN +0.40ubet −250 · bet_clv:2411686 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 72.7% · actual 8 · 30.4 min · started
Bam Adebayo Under 14.5 PTSWIN +2.10ubet +210 · bet_clv:2411685 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 42.2% · actual 8 · 30.4 min · started
Data fetches · 20
sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 15 ms
sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 15 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 15 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 15 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 18 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 18 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 90 ms
sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 91 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 95 ms
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 95 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 96 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 106 ms
grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 110 ms
sds history (h2h)ok · 119 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 113 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 522 ms
odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 439 ms
odds game timelinefailed 503 · 549 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 449 ms
grading verdict/board (price-only)failed 502 · 560 ms
Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.