02

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Verified pre-tip publication record

These exact IDs were recorded before tip and match the Board and daily Ledger. Outcomes are joined by the same IDs; paper signals remain distinct from recommended stakes.

Publication #94 · · 2 active signals · 2 earlier withdrawn IDs retained in the daily Ledger

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed
0 / 0
Latest publication attempt
unknown
Status observed since

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

A. Nembhard · Under 1.5 reboundsRefundedPosted at 3.90 · last price before start pendingPublished #2412847Refunded

Posted at 3.90

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not price NBA player lines

No price history for this line.

Exact published pick #2412847. Recorded model stake: 2 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →
P. Siakam · Under 3.5 reboundsLostPosted at 5.71 · last price before start pendingPublished #2427338Lost

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Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

03

The players

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 35 rostered players. 2 published picks use separate saved records.

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Indiana Pacersplaying MIL

17 players have no line from any bookmaker: Siakam (32 expected minutes) · Haliburton (32 min) · +15 more

Milwaukee Bucksplaying IND

18 players have no line from any bookmaker: Herro (32 expected minutes) · Jr. (31 min) · +16 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Sign in to view saved research →Coverage has not been checked in this session. Missing access is not missing data.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

04

What could go wrong

updated
Who is out

Out Nembhard · earlier listed as available (changed ) · 30, 32 and 34 min in the last 3 games

Out Sheppard · earlier listed as may not play (changed ) · 12, 25 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Out Zubac · earlier listed as unlisted (changed ) · 7, 24 and 34 min in the last 3 games

Out Furphy · earlier listed as unlisted (changed ) · 15, 31 and 29 min in the last 3 games

Out McConnell · earlier listed as unlisted (changed ) · 18, 14 and 14 min in the last 3 games

Out Nesmith · left hamstring injury management (hamstring) · IND

Unlikely to play L. Nance Jr. (IND) · illness

May not play Toppin · lumbar sprain · IND

Out Siakam · rest · IND

Out Haliburton · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · IND

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed () · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

For 4 players (Slawson, Smith, Ament, Dieng) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Rest

IND also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. 2 published picks use separate saved records.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Nembhard out () · played

Flagged before the game: Sheppard out () · played

Flagged before the game: Zubac out () · played

Flagged before the game: Furphy out () · played

Flagged before the game: McConnell out () · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

05

What happened

One game proves nothing.
Final · 0 of 2 picks wonPublished pick IDs: 0 won, 1 lost; 0 awaiting verified settlement. Positive-stake and paper results are separated in the daily Ledger; no combined unit return is claimed here. · checked

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

Sign in to see your predictions checked

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context
Head to head

MIL vs IND · last 39 games · MIL leads · MIL record 25–14 · average score 119.9–115.1 · MIL has won by 4.9 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

26 Oct · IND 102 at MIL 110MIL won
16 Oct · MIL 128 at IND 127MIL won
15 Mar · IND 123 at MIL 134MIL won
What each defense gives up per game
IND gives up116.7 points · 47.3 rebounds · 26.4 assists · 35.9% from three-point range
MIL gives up126.2 points · 46.0 rebounds · 29.7 assists · 34.9% from three-point range
Defense by position
How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

IND gives up 116.7 points a game · 23rd of 29 · league average 113.5+3.2 vs average
MIL gives up 126.2 points a game · 27th of 29 · league average 113.5+12.7 vs average
How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 2
Pascal Siakam · U 3.5 rebounds+471value_edge_pct – · kelly 2.00u
Andrew Nembhard · U 1.5 rebounds+290value_edge_pct – · kelly 2.00u
Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 62
Ryan Rollins Under 9.5 RAWIN +0.80ubet −125 · bet_clv:2450845 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.3% · actual 6 · 31.7 min · started
Aaron Nesmith Over 15.5 PRLOSS −1.00ubet +127 · bet_clv:2450841 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.2% · unexplained · actual 13 · 20.8 min · started
Tyrese Haliburton Under 24.5 PTSWIN +0.38ubet −260 · bet_clv:2450838 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 73.5% · actual 22 · 35.0 min · started
Pascal Siakam Over 24.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +117 · bet_clv:2450827 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.8% · unexplained · actual 20 · 36.5 min · started
Pascal Siakam Under 27.5 PAWIN +1.10ubet +110 · bet_clv:2450825 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.7% · actual 26 · 36.5 min · started
Jay Huff Under 5.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −215 · bet_clv:2446305 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 68.4% · unexplained · actual 6 · 22.6 min · started
Aaron Nesmith Under 11.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +117 · bet_clv:2446303 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.6% · unexplained · actual 13 · 20.8 min · started
Aaron Nesmith Under 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +165 · bet_clv:2446302 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.8% · unexplained · actual 13 · 20.8 min · started
Obi Toppin Under 18.5 PRLOSS −1.00ubet +122 · bet_clv:2446298 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.9% · unexplained · actual 20 · 23.2 min · started
Myles Turner Under 16.5 PRWIN +1.06ubet +106 · bet_clv:2446286 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.8% · actual 15 · 28.3 min · started
Kelly Oubre Jr. Under 9.5 PTSWIN +1.27ubet +127 · bet_clv:2446285 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.8% · actual 9 · 23.2 min · started
Jaime Jaquez Jr Under 9.5 RAVOID +0.00ubet +125 · bet_clv:2440938 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.0% · actual 0
Tyler Herro Under 22.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +110 · bet_clv:2440925 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.6% · unexplained · actual 23 · 32.5 min · started
Jaime Jaquez Jr Over 10.5 RAVOID +0.00ubet +130 · bet_clv:2434028 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.7% · actual 0
Jay Huff Under 9.5 PTSWIN +1.15ubet +115 · bet_clv:2434024 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 6 · 22.6 min · started
Obi Toppin Over 1.5 3PMWIN +0.83ubet −120 · bet_clv:2434020 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.1% · actual 2 · 23.2 min · started
Obi Toppin Under 17.5 PRLOSS −1.00ubet +115 · bet_clv:2434019 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · unexplained · actual 20 · 23.2 min · started
Tyler Herro Under 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +180 · bet_clv:2434017 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 40.6% · unexplained · actual 10 · 32.5 min · started
Pascal Siakam Over 7.5 REBWIN +1.76ubet +176 · bet_clv:2434008 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 40.9% · actual 13 · 36.5 min · started
Jaime Jaquez Jr Under 3.5 REBVOID +0.00ubet +277 · bet_clv:2427355 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 43.0% · actual 0
Aaron Nesmith Over 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −106 · bet_clv:2427351 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.3% · unexplained · actual 0 · 20.8 min · started
Tyrese Haliburton Over 0.5 BLKWIN +1.20ubet +120 · bet_clv:2427349 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.1% · actual 1 · 35.0 min · started
Andrew Nembhard Over 3.5 REBVOID +0.00ubet +180 · bet_clv:2427343 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 41.1% · actual 0
Pascal Siakam Under 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +471 · bet_clv:2427338 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 43.2% · unexplained · actual 13 · 36.5 min · started
Pascal Siakam Under 5.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +205 · bet_clv:2427337 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.4% · unexplained · actual 13 · 36.5 min · started
Pascal Siakam Under 24.5 PTSWIN +0.80ubet −125 · bet_clv:2427335 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.4% · actual 20 · 36.5 min · started
Myles Turner Under 9.5 PTSWIN +1.44ubet +144 · bet_clv:2427332 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.7% · actual 6 · 28.3 min · started
Kasparas Jakucionis Under 1.5 ASTVOID +0.00ubet +228 · bet_clv:2420069 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 43.6% · actual 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr Under 7.5 REBVOID +0.00ubet −290 · bet_clv:2420068 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 75.4% · actual 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr Under 19.5 PTSVOID +0.00ubet −260 · bet_clv:2420067 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 72.7% · actual 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr Under 9.5 PTSVOID +0.00ubet +270 · bet_clv:2420066 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 41.2% · actual 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr Over 4.5 ASTVOID +0.00ubet +160 · bet_clv:2420064 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 42.9% · actual 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr Over 3.5 ASTVOID +0.00ubet −117 · bet_clv:2420063 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.2% · actual 0
Ryan Rollins Under 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +300 · bet_clv:2420061 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 42.2% · unexplained · actual 19 · 31.7 min · started
Ryan Rollins Under 5.5 ASTWIN +0.41ubet −245 · bet_clv:2420060 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 70.2% · actual 4 · 31.7 min · started
Ryan Rollins Under 3.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +175 · bet_clv:2420059 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.5% · unexplained · actual 4 · 31.7 min · started
Aaron Nesmith Over 9.5 PTSWIN +1.50ubet +150 · bet_clv:2420058 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.3% · actual 13 · 20.8 min · started
Tyrese Haliburton Under 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +178 · bet_clv:2420057 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.5% · unexplained · actual 22 · 35.0 min · started
Tyrese Haliburton Over 19.5 PTSWIN +1.11ubet +111 · bet_clv:2420056 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.5% · actual 22 · 35.0 min · started
Tyrese Haliburton Under 7.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +182 · bet_clv:2420055 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.4% · unexplained · actual 9 · 35.0 min · started
Tyler Herro Under 5.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −245 · bet_clv:2420053 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 71.0% · unexplained · actual 10 · 32.5 min · started
Tyler Herro Under 5.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −285 · bet_clv:2420050 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 74.6% · unexplained · actual 7 · 32.5 min · started
Andrew Nembhard Under 9.5 PTSVOID +0.00ubet +203 · bet_clv:2420047 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.2% · actual 0
Kyle Kuzma Under 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +203 · bet_clv:2420046 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 43.8% · unexplained · actual 7 · 29.5 min · started
Kyle Kuzma Under 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +190 · bet_clv:2420045 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 42.1% · unexplained · actual 17 · 29.5 min · started
Kyle Kuzma Over 2.5 ASTWIN +0.77ubet −130 · bet_clv:2420044 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.0% · actual 3 · 29.5 min · started
Pascal Siakam Under 19.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +138 · bet_clv:2420041 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.7% · unexplained · actual 20 · 36.5 min · started
Pascal Siakam Under 1.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +233 · bet_clv:2420040 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 42.4% · unexplained · actual 6 · 36.5 min · started
Myles Turner Under 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +174 · bet_clv:2420039 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.7% · unexplained · actual 9 · 28.3 min · started
Kyle Kuzma Over 1.5 ASTWIN +0.33ubet −300 · bet_clv:2446292 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 75.3% · actual 3 · 29.5 min · started
Kasparas Jakucionis Under 3.5 ASTVOID +0.00ubet −160 · bet_clv:2412854 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 63.1% · actual 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr Under 5.5 ASTVOID +0.00ubet −320 · bet_clv:2412853 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 76.8% · actual 0
Ryan Rollins Under 5.5 REBWIN +0.33ubet −300 · bet_clv:2412852 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 75.1% · actual 2 · 31.7 min · started
Tyrese Haliburton Under 11.5 ASTWIN +0.36ubet −275 · bet_clv:2412851 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 72.7% · actual 9 · 35.0 min · started
Tyler Herro Under 19.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +200 · bet_clv:2412850 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 39.6% · unexplained · actual 23 · 32.5 min · started
Tyler Herro Under 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +300 · bet_clv:2412849 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 36.6% · unexplained · actual 23 · 32.5 min · started
Andrew Nembhard Under 3.5 REBVOID +0.00ubet −185 · bet_clv:2412848 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 67.1% · actual 0
Andrew Nembhard Under 1.5 REBVOID +0.00ubet +290 · bet_clv:2412847 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.2% · actual 0
Kyle Kuzma Under 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −215 · bet_clv:2412846 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 69.9% · unexplained · actual 17 · 29.5 min · started
Pascal Siakam Under 7.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −150 · bet_clv:2412844 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 64.4% · unexplained · actual 13 · 36.5 min · started
Pascal Siakam Over 6.5 REBWIN +0.90ubet −111 · bet_clv:2412843 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.1% · actual 13 · 36.5 min · started
Kyle Kuzma Under 3.5 ASTWIN +0.53ubet −190 · bet_clv:2412845 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 65.9% · actual 3 · 29.5 min · started
Data fetches · 20
sds history (h2h)ok · 13 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 17 ms
sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 17 ms
sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 17 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 17 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 19 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 19 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 91 ms
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 92 ms
sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 94 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 97 ms
odds game timelinefailed 503 · 96 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 99 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 110 ms
grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 118 ms
grading verdict/board (price-only)failed 502 · 124 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 85 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 103 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 119 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 523 ms
Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.