NBA · Finalupdated 22:42 UTC

Portland Trail Blazers vs Los Angeles Lakers

at Los Angeles Lakers

No game odds posted yet

POR 136 – LAL 129

Final · 1 of 2 picks won

2 picks checked: 1 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: POR = Portland Trail Blazers, LAL = Los Angeles Lakers.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

J. Morant · Over 6.5 assistsWithdrawn: outPosted at 2.50 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.50

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not price NBA player lines

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 1.55 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

D. Clingan · Under 10.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.71 · last price before start pendingWon +0.71 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 35 rostered players. 2 published picks use separate saved records.

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Portland Trail Blazersplaying LAL

17 players have no line from any bookmaker: Avdija (34 expected minutes) · Lillard (32 min) · +15 more

Los Angeles Lakersplaying POR

18 players have no line from any bookmaker: Reaves (35 expected minutes) · Dončić (35 min) · +16 more

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 22:42 UTC

Who is out

Out Thiero · earlier listed as unlisted (changed Sat 23:15 UTC)

Carr · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 00:15 UTC) · 1 and 1 min in the last 2 games

Youngblood · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 18:15 UTC) · 16 and 7 min in the last 2 games

Out Kent · earlier listed as may not play (changed Fri 01:15 UTC) · 7 min in the last game

Out Tonje · earlier listed as available (changed Fri 23:15 UTC) · 5 min in the last game

Out Sharpe · earlier listed as unlisted (changed Tue 00:15 UTC)

Out Morant · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · POR

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Wed 03:00 UTC) · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

For 4 players (Clingan, Cissoko, Dončić, Reaves) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. 2 published picks use separate saved records.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Thiero out (Sat 23:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Carr out (Sun 00:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Youngblood out (Sat 18:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Kent out (Fri 01:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Tonje out (Fri 23:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Sharpe out (Tue 00:15 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 2 picks won1 won, 1 lost · −0.29 if you had staked 1 on each · checked Wed 06:01 UTC

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LAL vs POR · last 27 games · LAL leads · LAL record 17–10 · average score 114.0–109.9 · LAL has won by 4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

27 Oct · POR 136 at LAL 129LAL lost

What each defense gives up per game

POR gives up109.3 points · 40.0 rebounds · 23.7 assists · 32.1% from three-point range

LAL gives up115.3 points · 40.6 rebounds · 27.4 assists · 37.0% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

POR gives up 109.3 points a game · 11th of 30 · league average 113.5−4.2 vs average

LAL gives up 115.3 points a game · 19th of 30 · league average 113.5+1.7 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 2

Ja Morant · O 6.5 assists+150value_edge_pct +9.36 · kelly 1.55u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Donovan Clingan · U 10.5 rebounds−141value_edge_pct +5.59 · kelly 1.95u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 2

Ja Morant Over 6.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +150 · bet_clv:2466267 · disciplined · captured 2026-10-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 43.7% · unexplained · actual 4 · 30.7 min · started · season_avg 7.5 · active_status active · historical_min_avg 27.3 · prior_season_games 8 · historical_stat_avg 8.5 · current_season_min_avg 24.8 · recent_vs_baseline_flag stable · minutes_source_confidence diverge_low_confidence

Donovan Clingan Under 10.5 REBWIN +0.71ubet −141 · bet_clv:2466268 · disciplined · captured 2026-10-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.8% · actual 10 · 26.1 min · started · season_avg 9 · active_status active · historical_min_avg 22.8 · prior_season_games 8 · rebound_trend_flag stable · tpa_rate_delta_pct -0.146 · historical_stat_avg 9.1 · current_season_min_avg 20.6 · recent_vs_baseline_flag stable · minutes_source_confidence diverge_low_confidence

Data fetches · 19

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 61 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 61 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 62 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 62 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 64 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 70 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 75 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 164 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 177 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 183 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 184 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 190 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 227 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 269 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 111 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 115 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 126 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 1113 ms

grading verdict/boardfailed · 6001 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.