NBA · Finalupdated 22:17 UTC

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks

at Dallas Mavericks

No game odds posted yet

OKC 96 – DAL 120

Final · 0 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 0 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

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How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: OKC = Oklahoma City Thunder, DAL = Dallas Mavericks.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Verified pre-tip publication record

These exact IDs were recorded before tip and match the Board and daily Ledger. Outcomes are joined by the same IDs; paper signals remain distinct from recommended stakes.

Publication #125 · 28 Oct, 18:02 UTC · 1 active signals

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

S. Gilgeous-Alexander · Under 4.5 reboundsLostPosted at 1.83 · last price before start pendingPublished #2485997Lost

Posted at 1.83

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not price NBA player lines

No price history for this line.

Exact published pick #2485997. Recorded model stake: 1.3 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 35 rostered players. 1 published pick uses separate saved records.

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Oklahoma City Thunderplaying DAL

17 players have no line from any bookmaker: Gilgeous-Alexander (35 expected minutes) · +16 more

Dallas Mavericksplaying OKC

18 players have no line from any bookmaker: Flagg (33 expected minutes) · Christie (33 min) · +16 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 22:17 UTC

Who is out

Out II · earlier listed as unlisted (changed Thu 20:15 UTC) · 18, 18 and 12 min in the last 3 games

Marshall · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Fri 22:45 UTC) · 21, 33 and 29 min in the last 3 games

Unlikely to play Aldama · earlier listed as out (changed Sun 22:45 UTC)

Out Larrea · earlier listed as unlisted (changed Tue 22:15 UTC) · 6, 33 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Out Biberović · earlier listed as unlikely to play (changed Fri 22:45 UTC)

Out Caruso · earlier listed as unlisted (changed Tue 21:45 UTC) · 9, 22 and 20 min in the last 3 games

Out Wallace · earlier listed as unlisted (changed Mon 18:15 UTC) · 6, 24 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Out Holmgren · earlier listed as unlisted (changed Mon 18:15 UTC) · 32, 28 and 31 min in the last 3 games

Out J. Williams (OKC) · earlier listed as available (changed Mon 18:15 UTC) · 32, 33 and 30 min in the last 3 games

Out Topić · earlier listed as available (changed Mon 19:45 UTC) · 6, 1 and 4 min in the last 3 games

Out Sorber · earlier listed as available (changed Mon 19:45 UTC)

Unlikely to play Irving · left knee injury management (knee) · DAL

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Thu 00:18 UTC) · NBA Official Lineups API, a lineup news service

Playing time

For 5 players (Mara, Dix, Washington, Flagg, Christie) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. 1 published pick uses separate saved records.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: II out (Thu 20:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Marshall out (Fri 22:45 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Aldama out (Sun 22:45 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Larrea out (Tue 22:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Biberović out (Fri 22:45 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Caruso out (Tue 21:45 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Wallace out (Mon 18:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Holmgren out (Mon 18:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: J. Williams (OKC) out (Mon 18:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Topić out (Mon 19:45 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Sorber out (Mon 19:45 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

One game proves nothing.

Final · 0 of 1 pick wonPublished pick IDs: 0 won, 1 lost; 0 awaiting verified settlement. Positive-stake and paper results are separated in the daily Ledger; no combined unit return is claimed here. · checked Thu 14:47 UTC

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

DAL vs OKC · last 29 games · DAL leads · DAL record 15–14 · average score 108.7–109.0 · DAL has lost by 0.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

28 Oct · OKC 96 at DAL 120DAL won

1 Mar · OKC 100 at DAL 87DAL lost

What each defense gives up per game

OKC gives up107.0 points · 44.5 rebounds · 26.0 assists · 35.3% from three-point range

DAL gives up111.8 points · 43.5 rebounds · 27.0 assists · 29.7% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

OKC gives up 107.0 points a game · 5th of 29 · league average 113.5−6.5 vs average

DAL gives up 111.8 points a game · 14th of 29 · league average 113.5−1.7 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · U 4.5 rebounds−120value_edge_pct – · kelly 1.30u

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 2

Max Christie Over 1.5 3PMWIN +0.65ubet −153 · bet_clv:2485998 · disciplined · captured 2026-10-28T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.8% · actual 3 · 21.8 min · started · active_status active · historical_min_avg 27.7 · prior_season_games 6 · historical_stat_avg 2.2 · current_season_min_avg 29.5 · minutes_source_confidence diverge_low_confidence

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 4.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −120 · bet_clv:2485997 · disciplined · captured 2026-10-28T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.9% · unexplained · actual 6 · 28.3 min · started · season_avg 4.3 · active_status active · historical_min_avg 35.2 · prior_season_games 6 · rebound_trend_flag stable · tpa_rate_delta_pct 0.489 · historical_stat_avg 3.4 · current_season_min_avg 34.3 · recent_vs_baseline_flag slumping · minutes_source_confidence diverge_low_confidence

Data fetches · 19

sds history (h2h)ok · 11 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 16 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 17 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 17 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 91 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 94 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 96 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 98 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 101 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 105 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 107 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 110 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)failed 502 · 114 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 88 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 91 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 3709 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.