DEN · 2026 season

KJ Simpson

20 games played · averaging 4.5 points. Each row is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 4.5 · POINTS · 2024–2026

HIT RATE64.3%36 of 56 games

INTERVAL51.2%–75.5%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN-181at that rate

AT THE FLOOR-105if the rate is 51.2%

KJ has cleared 4.5 points in 64.3% of 56 games since 2024, and in 30.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs -181 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-04-10

OKC

HOME

6.7MIN

2POINTS

2 · 0 · 1-1

BELOW

FG: 1-1
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 100.0
USG%: 6.3
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: +6
PRA: 4

2026-04-08

MEM

HOME

3.2MIN

0POINTS

1 · 0 · 0-1

BELOW

FG: 0-1
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 27.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 0
+/−: 0
PRA: 1

2026-04-01

UTAH

AWAY

1.7MIN

0POINTS

0 · 0 · 0-1

BELOW

FG: 0-1
3PT: 0-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 24.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: -5
PRA: 0

2026-03-01

MIN

HOME

1.3MIN

0POINTS

0 · 0 · 0-0

BELOW

FG: 0-0
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 0.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: +2
PRA: 0

2026-02-25

BOS

HOME

14.3MIN

2POINTS

4 · 4 · 1-5

BELOW

FG: 1-5
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 20.0
USG%: 15.4
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: +13
PRA: 10

2026-02-20

POR

AWAY

7.4MIN

3POINTS

1 · 4 · 1-2

BELOW

FG: 1-2
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 1/0
TS%: 52.1
USG%: 14.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +14
PRA: 8

2025-12-18

ATL

HOME

13.0MIN

4POINTS

0 · 2 · 2-7

BELOW

FG: 2-7
3PT: 0-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 28.6
USG%: 29.5
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 0
+/−: -5
PRA: 6

2025-12-14

CLE

AWAY

19.1MIN

6POINTS

0 · 4 · 2-9

ABOVE

FG: 2-9
3PT: 1-6
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 30.4
USG%: 29.0
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 1
+/−: -9
PRA: 10

2025-12-12

CHI

HOME

25.3MIN

10POINTS

4 · 3 · 4-9

ABOVE

FG: 4-9
3PT: 2-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 55.6
USG%: 17.4
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +11
PRA: 17

2025-12-07

DEN

HOME

29.3MIN

16POINTS

5 · 1 · 6-14

ABOVE

FG: 6-14
3PT: 2-8
FT: 2-4
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 50.8
USG%: 24.1
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: -14
PRA: 22

2025-12-05

TOR

AWAY

28.0MIN

8POINTS

3 · 4 · 2-6

ABOVE

FG: 2-6
3PT: 1-2
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 51.5
USG%: 22.5
STL: 5
BLK: 0
TOV: 7
PF: 3
+/−: +14
PRA: 15

2025-12-03

AWAY

3.5MIN

1POINTS

0 · 1 · 0-1

BELOW

FG: 0-1
3PT: 0-1
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 26.6
USG%: 22.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: +3
PRA: 2

2025-11-23

ATL

AWAY

11.9MIN

5POINTS

2 · 2 · 2-4

ABOVE

FG: 2-4
3PT: 1-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 62.5
USG%: 18.4
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 0
+/−: 0
PRA: 9

2025-11-19

IND

AWAY

3.3MIN

0POINTS

0 · 0 · 0-2

BELOW

FG: 0-2
3PT: 0-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 22.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: -7
PRA: 0

2025-11-15

OKC

HOME

18.0MIN

9POINTS

1 · 5 · 4-13

ABOVE

FG: 4-13
3PT: 1-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 34.6
USG%: 36.0
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 0
+/−: +7
PRA: 15

2025-11-12

MIL

HOME

9.0MIN

2POINTS

2 · 2 · 1-4

BELOW

FG: 1-4
3PT: 0-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 25.0
USG%: 19.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: -11
PRA: 6

2025-11-10

LAL

HOME

20.1MIN

8POINTS

3 · 4 · 3-6

ABOVE

FG: 3-6
3PT: 2-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 66.7
USG%: 20.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: +4
PRA: 15

2025-11-07

MIA

AWAY

12.6MIN

0POINTS

1 · 3 · 0-3

BELOW

FG: 0-3
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 9.0
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: -18
PRA: 4

2025-11-04

AWAY

13.3MIN

8POINTS

3 · 0 · 3-6

ABOVE

FG: 3-6
3PT: 1-2
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 2/1
TS%: 58.1
USG%: 25.1
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -13
PRA: 11

2025-11-02

UTAH

HOME

16.6MIN

7POINTS

4 · 4 · 2-5

ABOVE

FG: 2-5
3PT: 1-3
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 59.5
USG%: 25.6
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 3
+/−: +6
PRA: 15

every game on file — nothing hidden