WNBA · May 28 gameAll props Full sheet

Phoenix Mercury at Connecticut Sun

FinalPHO 47 – CON 70Page updated 19:20 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes2 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Phoenix Mercury

Alyssa Thomas · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 10 actual

Natasha Mack · minutes unknown

3-pointers 0.5 → 0 actual

Connecticut Sun

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

CON expected to win by about 8 · both teams together expected to score about 168 points · odds to win: PHO 3.88, CON 1.29

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Tue 22:55 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 19:20 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

PHO had 7 days off before this game · CON had 7 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 26 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 2 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

2 other players with a posted line

Natasha Mack · 3-pointers 0.5 → 0 · 0.5 below the line · played 27.2 min · no final price

Alyssa Thomas · points 15.5 → 10 · 5.5 below the line · played 24.4 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

CON vs PHO · last 16 games · CON leads · CON record 11–5 · average score 80.6–74.0 · CON has won by 6.6 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

7 Aug · PHO 72 at CON 75CON won

19 Jul · CON 63 at PHO 72CON lost

17 Jul · CON 96 at PHO 83CON won

6 Sep · PHO 84 at CON 87CON won

What each defense gives up per game

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had CON expected to win by 8, expected total 168 (Tue 22:55 UTC) and had not changed it by Tue 22:55 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 25

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 45 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 46 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 46 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 51 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 63 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 64 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 64 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 73 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 73 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 76 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 194 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 194 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 197 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 219 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 245 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 96 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 125 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 142 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 362 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 706 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 560 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 817 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.